joof's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/82232/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179403-home-sales-skyrocket-backlog-clears?source=feed#comment-819202 819202 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:27:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178278-why-falling-u-s-housing-values-are-good-news?source=feed#comment-810843 810843 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:23:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175221-single-family-homes-remain-oversupplied-by-over-900-000-units?source=feed#comment-777329 777329
Increasingly hard to rationalize the doom position as an end market continues running away from you (both volume and price) - continued obsessively talking your book is no longer enough .

The market is clearing at current levels. Debt is taken out each time a transaction occcurs, and replaced with lower and more supportable financing at lower asset price. Quality homes are being bid up. The overhang is real, but at this point has a fighting chance to be absorbed in an orderly way over the next few quarters.

A little known fact- all the national homebuilders are back in the market aggressively bidding up land. Someone is stupid - professional builders or the amateurs on these boards . You pick ]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:49:40 -0500
Increasingly hard to rationalize the doom position as an end market continues running away from you (both volume and price) - continued obsessively talking your book is no longer enough .

The market is clearing at current levels. Debt is taken out each time a transaction occcurs, and replaced with lower and more supportable financing at lower asset price. Quality homes are being bid up. The overhang is real, but at this point has a fighting chance to be absorbed in an orderly way over the next few quarters.

A little known fact- all the national homebuilders are back in the market aggressively bidding up land. Someone is stupid - professional builders or the amateurs on these boards . You pick ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174041-south-california-home-sales-let-the-good-times-roll?source=feed#comment-768198 768198
CA home ownership percentage never got to 60% even during the boom; hence pent up demand. This contrasts with the US max of about 68%

I know first time buyers that are getting increasingly disillusioned because they can't get an offer accepted among the flurry of competition . I know flippers that have made millions in that last 18 months]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:47:32 -0500
CA home ownership percentage never got to 60% even during the boom; hence pent up demand. This contrasts with the US max of about 68%

I know first time buyers that are getting increasingly disillusioned because they can't get an offer accepted among the flurry of competition . I know flippers that have made millions in that last 18 months]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170419-how-bloomberg-fabricates-u-s-housing-numbers?source=feed#comment-741519 741519
NO One on this thread actually read the article and understands the numbers. That actual number of excess units- housing vacant above trend- is a fraction of this large number

Three items make up the 19 MM - vacant for sale, vacant for rent ( including apartments) and seasonal (second homes). About 1/3 of the total comes from each.

Seasonal homes by definition aren't excess - they don't compete for primary occupancy in most markets. In this kind of world many will try to dump the beach house or Vail condo, and prices for second homes are very soft- just like in any recession. But that really doesn't directly affect most primary housing markets.

On for rent (apartments) nation vacancy is about 7.3% , or about 2% over what owners would like. Say that means 1 MM excess housing units.

On for sale most analysts would say that that the current vacancy rate is about 2x the norm - say another 1 MM excess units

19 MM really means 2 MM excess - about 1/2 year of gross demand. A problem - true - but not a cataclysm]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:10:17 -0500
NO One on this thread actually read the article and understands the numbers. That actual number of excess units- housing vacant above trend- is a fraction of this large number

Three items make up the 19 MM - vacant for sale, vacant for rent ( including apartments) and seasonal (second homes). About 1/3 of the total comes from each.

Seasonal homes by definition aren't excess - they don't compete for primary occupancy in most markets. In this kind of world many will try to dump the beach house or Vail condo, and prices for second homes are very soft- just like in any recession. But that really doesn't directly affect most primary housing markets.

On for rent (apartments) nation vacancy is about 7.3% , or about 2% over what owners would like. Say that means 1 MM excess housing units.

On for sale most analysts would say that that the current vacancy rate is about 2x the norm - say another 1 MM excess units

19 MM really means 2 MM excess - about 1/2 year of gross demand. A problem - true - but not a cataclysm]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170526-property-values-set-to-fall-43-from-current-depressed-levels?source=feed#comment-741306 741306

Dohhh!]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:56:54 -0500

Dohhh!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169561-u-s-housing-round-trip-to-pre-bubble-prices-underway?source=feed#comment-737626 737626
rent/value, income/value, supply/demand (measured as listed months supply ) also say the same thing. Almost no newly contructed supply is entering the market, esp as a ratio of long term demographic demand .

However, more income compression due to labor market conditions and the dribble out of the gradual resolution of defaults may push values down further, or at least limit appreciation from these levels ]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:17:21 -0400
rent/value, income/value, supply/demand (measured as listed months supply ) also say the same thing. Almost no newly contructed supply is entering the market, esp as a ratio of long term demographic demand .

However, more income compression due to labor market conditions and the dribble out of the gradual resolution of defaults may push values down further, or at least limit appreciation from these levels ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166660-pay-no-attention-to-the-140-p-e-behind-the-curtain?source=feed#comment-716530 716530
More relevant - trailng 10 year PE or forward to normaized earnings PE - assuming anyone has clue about the latter]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:25:03 -0400
More relevant - trailng 10 year PE or forward to normaized earnings PE - assuming anyone has clue about the latter]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164867-low-home-ownership-rate-hurting-the-economy?source=feed#comment-704399 704399
Look at the Harvard Center for Housing website and their annual analysis.

For several years d uring the boom production was well above this number. At least 1-2 years supply was built ahead of fundamental demand.

Production has been below the long term level since late 2006- reversion to the mean. At some point there will be production back to or above the mean - or people will be underhoused.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:51:27 -0400
Look at the Harvard Center for Housing website and their annual analysis.

For several years d uring the boom production was well above this number. At least 1-2 years supply was built ahead of fundamental demand.

Production has been below the long term level since late 2006- reversion to the mean. At some point there will be production back to or above the mean - or people will be underhoused.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158259-more-good-housing-news?source=feed#comment-649975 649975 Spell chekk plees]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:02:30 -0400 Spell chekk plees]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158263-one-good-thing-about-estimated-current-housing-values-reality?source=feed#comment-649952 649952
I want to move there soon. Where is it?

Definitely not bubbleland America circa 2003-07]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 20:43:39 -0400
I want to move there soon. Where is it?

Definitely not bubbleland America circa 2003-07]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158208-it-s-getting-harder-to-be-a-housing-bear?source=feed#comment-649940 649940
In many markets you can carry a house for less than rent - the first glimpse of that relationship in many years.

Inventories are at or below stabilized levels in many key markets. The good stuff has been sucked off, even much of the junk has sold through. Bidding wars have become the norm in good starter or first move up markets in many areas

All this has been true since spring. The CS data is finally showing what the street level experience has been for awhile

No one knows if and when the asserted "20 Million spare homes" hit the market ( an obviously laughably bogus stat; it does not even come close to passing a smell test) . But for now good luck if you want to buy a quality starter home - you have lots of competition
]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 20:25:36 -0400
In many markets you can carry a house for less than rent - the first glimpse of that relationship in many years.

Inventories are at or below stabilized levels in many key markets. The good stuff has been sucked off, even much of the junk has sold through. Bidding wars have become the norm in good starter or first move up markets in many areas

All this has been true since spring. The CS data is finally showing what the street level experience has been for awhile

No one knows if and when the asserted "20 Million spare homes" hit the market ( an obviously laughably bogus stat; it does not even come close to passing a smell test) . But for now good luck if you want to buy a quality starter home - you have lots of competition
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151402-rumors-solidify-around-apple-tablet?source=feed#comment-604181 604181 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:19:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151469-homebuilders-slam-on-the-brakes?source=feed#comment-604173 604173
BTW that's' exactly what happened during the 90s recovery]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:13:46 -0400
BTW that's' exactly what happened during the 90s recovery]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147331-if-insiders-are-unloading-why-is-bidz-com-buying-back-shares?source=feed#comment-577787 577787 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:03:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140871-short-housing-for-the-long-term?source=feed#comment-530686 530686
Data (not self serving anecdote) say that in better CA real estate markets resale supply is less than 5 months, in some cases as low as 3 months, sales. This is different than FL and NV and AZ. Multiple bids on well located entry or first move up houses have become the norm. Many sell for better than list. Affordablity is at a generational high

Check Data quick if you don't believe me

More foreclosure are hitting the market, but sales rates thus far this year are keeping up. After the summer.....who knows? ]]> Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:44:32 -0400
Data (not self serving anecdote) say that in better CA real estate markets resale supply is less than 5 months, in some cases as low as 3 months, sales. This is different than FL and NV and AZ. Multiple bids on well located entry or first move up houses have become the norm. Many sell for better than list. Affordablity is at a generational high

Check Data quick if you don't believe me

More foreclosure are hitting the market, but sales rates thus far this year are keeping up. After the summer.....who knows? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139445-faux-demand-for-foreclosed-homes?source=feed#comment-518725 518725
In CA taxes are about 1.1-1.3% of purchase price - or about 200-400/month on a median house. Upkeep and insurance could be generously 500/month. So if you rent at 1900-2500 and pay out under a 1000, how do you lose money?






On May 26 12:55 PM Fred W wrote:

> I will make this easy to grasp, since you are obviously are "slow".
>
> Annual taxes and "upkeep" cost more than the annual rent...was that
> really difficult to figure out?]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 18:16:09 -0400
In CA taxes are about 1.1-1.3% of purchase price - or about 200-400/month on a median house. Upkeep and insurance could be generously 500/month. So if you rent at 1900-2500 and pay out under a 1000, how do you lose money?






On May 26 12:55 PM Fred W wrote:

> I will make this easy to grasp, since you are obviously are "slow".
>
> Annual taxes and "upkeep" cost more than the annual rent...was that
> really difficult to figure out?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135628-amazon-insider-sales-does-jeff-bezos-know-something?source=feed#comment-493036 493036
What are the grant dates of the options he exercised? If you can answer that you may have a point.]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 20:32:33 -0400
What are the grant dates of the options he exercised? If you can answer that you may have a point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135334-housing-objects-in-the-mirror-may-appear-closer-than-they-are?source=feed#comment-493024 493024
In S California there is less than 3 months listed supply at lower price levels in better markets. Multiple offers and aggressive bid ups over list have become the norm for better properties. Sales rate have been sufficient to counter balance new foreclosure inventory. It costs less to own than to rent in many cases. Since those are the facts, why hasn't the so called shadow inventory flooded the market ?

The upper end end is a very different story]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 20:25:16 -0400
In S California there is less than 3 months listed supply at lower price levels in better markets. Multiple offers and aggressive bid ups over list have become the norm for better properties. Sales rate have been sufficient to counter balance new foreclosure inventory. It costs less to own than to rent in many cases. Since those are the facts, why hasn't the so called shadow inventory flooded the market ?

The upper end end is a very different story]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134482-why-this-rally-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-493006 493006

On May 01 02:07 PM Naufal Sanaullah wrote:

> Market is up about 2.5% since April 9.]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 20:14:44 -0400

On May 01 02:07 PM Naufal Sanaullah wrote:

> Market is up about 2.5% since April 9.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135664-sacramento-california-reaching-prices-where-there-is-demand?source=feed#comment-493000 493000
Much of the foreclosure stuff is in lousy shape or in bad locations . Stories abound where well priced well located houses in good shape ( ie the next level up in quality from the foreclosure market ) get multiple offers, and sell for well in excess of list

Over the mid term the echo boom demographics would create potential demand- if those kids can get and keep jobs]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 20:06:37 -0400
Much of the foreclosure stuff is in lousy shape or in bad locations . Stories abound where well priced well located houses in good shape ( ie the next level up in quality from the foreclosure market ) get multiple offers, and sell for well in excess of list

Over the mid term the echo boom demographics would create potential demand- if those kids can get and keep jobs]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130172-is-the-next-shoe-about-to-drop?source=feed#comment-458145 458145 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:33:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129113-non-residential-housing-construction-decline-stops?source=feed#comment-449505 449505
After they finished that spate, the real disinvestment started
Commercial is no different. If you have pulled you r permits, drawn the construction loan and started you can make a case that both you and your lender are better off finishing . THEN.....]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:58:24 -0400
After they finished that spate, the real disinvestment started
Commercial is no different. If you have pulled you r permits, drawn the construction loan and started you can make a case that both you and your lender are better off finishing . THEN.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123539-commercial-real-estate-implosion-is-imminent?source=feed#comment-414922 414922
If they can get any money to refi

BTW the value decline works out like this

10-20% decine in rent
10-20% decline in occupancy
2% increase in cap - 20-25% decline in multiple

(15+15+20)=50]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 16:55:07 -0500
If they can get any money to refi

BTW the value decline works out like this

10-20% decine in rent
10-20% decline in occupancy
2% increase in cap - 20-25% decline in multiple

(15+15+20)=50]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123539-commercial-real-estate-implosion-is-imminent?source=feed#comment-414913 414913 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 16:49:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123340-report-renters-are-wealthier-than-home-owners?source=feed#comment-413320 413320
If you rent can you say the same? How have YOU hedged your housing carry?]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:54:37 -0500
If you rent can you say the same? How have YOU hedged your housing carry?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118051-how-to-fix-america-s-housing?source=feed#comment-374813 374813
]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:33:39 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115038-banks-not-lending-anymore-simply-untrue?source=feed#comment-360308 360308
If you thinks this is normal market just compare terms you could have gotten two year s ago to those now. The difference is shocking for good commercial credits ]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:41:16 -0500
If you thinks this is normal market just compare terms you could have gotten two year s ago to those now. The difference is shocking for good commercial credits ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115241-thank-goodness-the-banks-aren-t-lending?source=feed#comment-360176 360176
Modern Credit really orignated in the middle ages to foster trade ( contrary to the holding of the Church) - a commercial entrepreneur used letters of credit, trade credit or bills of lading to finance his risk business. Credit also permits production of resources ( e.g. ag) with revenue streams that vary temporally from the timing of investment . Credit cards and HELOCs are the bastard children of these more elevated parents

Now you are seeing even normal trade finance credit relationships suffer , including A/P - not just these involving an intemediary . Barter and hard cash simply don't provide suffincient transactionallubircati... and support for a modern economy . Hence the concern for a real economy death spiral ]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:53:42 -0500
Modern Credit really orignated in the middle ages to foster trade ( contrary to the holding of the Church) - a commercial entrepreneur used letters of credit, trade credit or bills of lading to finance his risk business. Credit also permits production of resources ( e.g. ag) with revenue streams that vary temporally from the timing of investment . Credit cards and HELOCs are the bastard children of these more elevated parents

Now you are seeing even normal trade finance credit relationships suffer , including A/P - not just these involving an intemediary . Barter and hard cash simply don't provide suffincient transactionallubircati... and support for a modern economy . Hence the concern for a real economy death spiral ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114455-citi-s-flip-flop-on-mortgage-cramdowns-a-really-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-354995 354995

A cramdown option may ulimately be in everyone's best interest - the lender takes a lesser hit on the loan vs. foreclosure , the homeowner keeps the house with a supportable liability structure ( a lower price paid for the asset) , neighborhoods remain more stable , and the govt has to deal with fewer foreclosed assets as part of GSE support

]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 19:03:57 -0500

A cramdown option may ulimately be in everyone's best interest - the lender takes a lesser hit on the loan vs. foreclosure , the homeowner keeps the house with a supportable liability structure ( a lower price paid for the asset) , neighborhoods remain more stable , and the govt has to deal with fewer foreclosed assets as part of GSE support

]]>