joof

Latest Case-Shiller Housing Report and Its Ramifications: Seeds of a 2010 Crisis?

Demand is up because prices are down . Duh

How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers

Amazing but true

NO One on this thread actually read the article and understands the numbers. That actual number of excess units- housing vacant above trend- is a fraction of this large number

Three items make up the 19 MM - vacant for sale, vacant for rent ( including apartments) and seasonal (second homes). About 1/3 of the total comes from each.

Seasonal homes by definition aren't excess - they don't compete for primary occupancy in most markets. In this kind of world many will try to dump the beach house or Vail condo, and prices for second homes are very soft- just like in any recession. But that really doesn't directly affect most primary housing markets.

On for rent (apartments) nation vacancy is about 7.3% , or about 2% over what owners would like. Say that means 1 MM excess housing units.

On for sale most analysts would say that that the current vacancy rate is about 2x the norm - say another 1 MM excess units

19 MM really means 2 MM excess - about 1/2 year of gross demand. A problem - true - but not a cataclysm

Low Home Ownership Rate Hurting the Economy

The long term demand for new housing is estimated at about 1.5-1.7 MM units a year based on household formation and obsolescence. That is both for sale and rental

Look at the Harvard Center for Housing website and their annual analysis.

For several years d uring the boom production was well above this number. At least 1-2 years supply was built ahead of fundamental demand.

Production has been below the long term level since late 2006- reversion to the mean. At some point there will be production back to or above the mean - or people will be underhoused.

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

except that prices are actually rising now


Dohhh!

We May See Mortgage Rates Fall to 3.5%

By most measures housing pricing in most markets is now at a reasonble level vs. income - of course after a catastrophic decline . Add the lower rates, and why not buy?

Fear.....

Mortgage Cramdowns: A Disaster in the Making

see Sajinnc-


The ONLY exception to cramdown is a homeowner after the credit card company sponsored bankruptcy update . Any owner of any other asset with secured debt can get a cram down on a plan filing


A cramdown option may ulimately be in everyone's best interest - the lender takes a lesser hit on the loan vs. foreclosure , the homeowner keeps the house with a supportable liability structure ( a lower price paid for the asset) , neighborhoods remain more stable , and the govt has to deal with fewer foreclosed assets as part of GSE support

Home Sales Skyrocket, Backlog Clears

The unwashed herd remains negative - see the barely literate posts attacking the article . Yet another contrarian indicator of recovery

If Insiders Are Unloading, Why Is BIDZ.Com Buying Back Shares?

It has been known to happen that stock buybacks are timed to support the scheduled insider selling. Can't really prove it in many cases...but the insiders can sell as the company is executing buybacks that support stock price

Short Housing for the Long Term

I know 2 well established veteran and competent CA real estate agents ( not newbies that got their licenses at the tail end of the boom) that had their best years ever last year, and are doing even better this year. They are making up in volume what they lost in price

Data (not self serving anecdote) say that in better CA real estate markets resale supply is less than 5 months, in some cases as low as 3 months, sales. This is different than FL and NV and AZ. Multiple bids on well located entry or first move up houses have become the norm. Many sell for better than list. Affordablity is at a generational high

Check Data quick if you don't believe me

More foreclosure are hitting the market, but sales rates thus far this year are keeping up. After the summer.....who knows?

Housing: Objects in the Mirror May Appear Closer than They Are

National single family starts are actually well below 400k

In S California there is less than 3 months listed supply at lower price levels in better markets. Multiple offers and aggressive bid ups over list have become the norm for better properties. Sales rate have been sufficient to counter balance new foreclosure inventory. It costs less to own than to rent in many cases. Since those are the facts, why hasn't the so called shadow inventory flooded the market ?

The upper end end is a very different story

Why Falling U.S. Housing Values Are Good News

96-97 was a trough after the last 89-91 crash. 2002-03 nominal values represent pre bubble values adjusted for inflation. We are there - that's why prices have risen in many markets since April

U.S. Housing: Round Trip to Pre-Bubble Prices Underway

or in some markets 2003 nominal ( not real) values. In other words we are there in much of the US

rent/value, income/value, supply/demand (measured as listed months supply ) also say the same thing. Almost no newly contructed supply is entering the market, esp as a ratio of long term demographic demand .

However, more income compression due to labor market conditions and the dribble out of the gradual resolution of defaults may push values down further, or at least limit appreciation from these levels

Homebuilders Slam on the Brakes

Builders have reacted to the depleted inventory ( both new and existing) in more attractive markets by bidding up finished lots in good locations. One of the consequences - the local and regional private builders will continue to lose share over the repair cycle

BTW that's' exactly what happened during the 90s recovery

Amazon Insider Sales: Does Jeff Bezos Know Something?

He has been there for years. Options expire , usually at 10 years from grant . He may have had to exercise to avoid losing the options .

What are the grant dates of the options he exercised? If you can answer that you may have a point.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

or an annualized over 30%


On May 01 02:07 PM Naufal Sanaullah wrote:

> Market is up about 2.5% since April 9.