Seeking Alpha

joof » Comments » C

  • How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers [View article]
    Amazing but true

    NO One on this thread actually read the article and understands the numbers. That actual number of excess units- housing vacant above trend- is a fraction of this large number

    Three items make up the 19 MM - vacant for sale, vacant for rent ( including apartments) and seasonal (second homes). About 1/3 of the total comes from each.

    Seasonal homes by definition aren't excess - they don't compete for primary occupancy in most markets. In this kind of world many will try to dump the beach house or Vail condo, and prices for second homes are very soft- just like in any recession. But that really doesn't directly affect most primary housing markets.

    On for rent (apartments) nation vacancy is about 7.3% , or about 2% over what owners would like. Say that means 1 MM excess housing units.

    On for sale most analysts would say that that the current vacancy rate is about 2x the norm - say another 1 MM excess units

    19 MM really means 2 MM excess - about 1/2 year of gross demand. A problem - true - but not a cataclysm
    Nov 02 20:10 pm |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Why This Rally Is Unsustainable [View article]
    or an annualized over 30%


    On May 01 02:07 PM Naufal Sanaullah wrote:

    > Market is up about 2.5% since April 9.
    May 06 20:14 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Citi's Flip-Flop on Mortgage Cramdowns: A Really Bad Idea [View article]
    The ONLY exception to cramdown is a homeowner after the credit card company sponsored bankruptcy update . Any owner of any other asset with secured debt can get a cram down on a plan filing


    A cramdown option may ulimately be in everyone's best interest - the lender takes a lesser hit on the loan vs. foreclosure , the homeowner keeps the house with a supportable liability structure ( a lower price paid for the asset) , neighborhoods remain more stable , and the govt has to deal with fewer foreclosed assets as part of GSE support

    Jan 13 19:03 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Citi's Flip-Flop on Mortgage Cramdowns: A Really Bad Idea [View article]
    The bank will take a loss . It may mitigate the loss more effectivley by electing cramdown over a foreclosure
    Jan 13 19:03 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage Cramdowns: A Disaster in the Making [View article]
    see Sajinnc-


    The ONLY exception to cramdown is a homeowner after the credit card company sponsored bankruptcy update . Any owner of any other asset with secured debt can get a cram down on a plan filing


    A cramdown option may ulimately be in everyone's best interest - the lender takes a lesser hit on the loan vs. foreclosure , the homeowner keeps the house with a supportable liability structure ( a lower price paid for the asset) , neighborhoods remain more stable , and the govt has to deal with fewer foreclosed assets as part of GSE support
    Jan 09 13:15 pm |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment
More on C by joof
Comments by Ticker
joof's
Comments Stats
64 comments
Rating: 7 (40 - 33 )