joof

Single Family Homes Remain Oversupplied by Over 900,000 Units

The thought quantity (massive) and quality ( sloppy analysis, dated data, poor writing, and obvious emotional baggage) of the bear case is certainly a contrarian indicator - implies support for a long case.

Increasingly hard to rationalize the doom position as an end market continues running away from you (both volume and price) - continued obsessively talking your book is no longer enough .

The market is clearing at current levels. Debt is taken out each time a transaction occcurs, and replaced with lower and more supportable financing at lower asset price. Quality homes are being bid up. The overhang is real, but at this point has a fighting chance to be absorbed in an orderly way over the next few quarters.

A little known fact- all the national homebuilders are back in the market aggressively bidding up land. Someone is stupid - professional builders or the amateurs on these boards . You pick

South California Home Sales: Let the Good Times Roll

and there is very little of quality left to buy at the lower to mid levels. Inventory has been at 3-4 month sales in better markets for months . Affordability in CA is at record levels...for those with jobs. Many still have jobs. For the first time in decades ownership competes favorably with renting - even before tax effects and appreciation

CA home ownership percentage never got to 60% even during the boom; hence pent up demand. This contrasts with the US max of about 68%

I know first time buyers that are getting increasingly disillusioned because they can't get an offer accepted among the flurry of competition . I know flippers that have made millions in that last 18 months

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

except that prices are actually rising now


Dohhh!