joof

Low Home Ownership Rate Hurting the Economy

The long term demand for new housing is estimated at about 1.5-1.7 MM units a year based on household formation and obsolescence. That is both for sale and rental

Look at the Harvard Center for Housing website and their annual analysis.

For several years d uring the boom production was well above this number. At least 1-2 years supply was built ahead of fundamental demand.

Production has been below the long term level since late 2006- reversion to the mean. At some point there will be production back to or above the mean - or people will be underhoused.

Commercial Real Estate Implosion Is Imminent

ON the operating end refied assets are facing 30-50% value declines and deep reductions in permitted LTV - from 80 to 60-65

If they can get any money to refi

BTW the value decline works out like this

10-20% decine in rent
10-20% decline in occupancy
2% increase in cap - 20-25% decline in multiple

(15+15+20)=50

Commercial Real Estate Implosion Is Imminent

drop the hat dude