joof

Why Falling U.S. Housing Values Are Good News

96-97 was a trough after the last 89-91 crash. 2002-03 nominal values represent pre bubble values adjusted for inflation. We are there - that's why prices have risen in many markets since April

Single Family Homes Remain Oversupplied by Over 900,000 Units

The thought quantity (massive) and quality ( sloppy analysis, dated data, poor writing, and obvious emotional baggage) of the bear case is certainly a contrarian indicator - implies support for a long case.

Increasingly hard to rationalize the doom position as an end market continues running away from you (both volume and price) - continued obsessively talking your book is no longer enough .

The market is clearing at current levels. Debt is taken out each time a transaction occcurs, and replaced with lower and more supportable financing at lower asset price. Quality homes are being bid up. The overhang is real, but at this point has a fighting chance to be absorbed in an orderly way over the next few quarters.

A little known fact- all the national homebuilders are back in the market aggressively bidding up land. Someone is stupid - professional builders or the amateurs on these boards . You pick

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

except that prices are actually rising now


Dohhh!

Little House on PIMCO’s Prairie

They have bene the WORST among the closed end bond sponsors in dealing with auction rate securities. Several of their funds have gone on non-distribution status - esp the muni funds . Google them and see

I know a major financial advisor firm that have told PIMCO that they will no longer sell their closed end products until they start showing some communication commitment , loyalty and concern for the channel especially the customers


However they are the biggest - good marketing and PR win