Seeking Alpha

temperest

temperest
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View temperest's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Tesla Lowers Ambitions [View article]
    A great business under-promises and over delivers. Tesla has done nothing but the opposite. Do you forget that the model X was originally supposed to be out in 2013 ?

    Your link erroneously claims the X was first slated for end of 2014. Tesla and their fanatics have serious issues with things like 'facts'.
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:59 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Now Trades At 34x Estimated 2019 Earnings [View article]
    That's what they said before the dot com crash.
    Sep 12, 2014. 06:00 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles Are The Future And Tesla Is At The Forefront [View article]
    Teslas aren't green. The production of batteries is extremely dirty and produces tens of thousands of pounds of c02. You'd have to drive a tesla for about 80,000 miles before you start to beat the c02 production of a gas car, and by then you need a new battery.

    What is actually much greener is Hydrogen fuel cell cars. And the price of these are falling far faster than the cost of battery cars. Fuel cell cars will win over battery. Musk will leave a mess of useless superchargers and wasted tax credits, all at public expense. The Gigaflop battery facility will end up a relic showcasing the senselessness of throwing tax money at false promises made by Musk.
    Sep 29, 2014. 05:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Implications Beyond The Electric Car Industry [View article]
    How much in batteries would you have to pay to power a typical house (fully off the grid)? My guess is at least $40k worth. You're going to want at least a couple days of power in case of cloudy weather or such. If you're in Arizona, it has to be sizeable enough to power an air conditioner. Plus you'd need how many thousands in solar cells to charge the batteries? And what's the typical life of these batteries before they need to be replaced - 8 years?

    Even living in a sunny place, it doesn't sound cost effective. In most places, it won't be feasible at all because of frequent cloudy weather or winter when there isn't enough sun. On top of maintaining the solar cells (gotta clean off the bird poo), it's not worth it even if battery prices fell 30%.

    This is assuming an 'off-the-grid' home. If you're at all realistic and stay on the grid for backup, the utilities are going to charge you more for maintaining the wires to your home even if you don't use the power much.

    Admittedly, I haven't spent much time on this. But if someone has a better accounting of this, I'm all ears. Something realistic please, no Elon Musk "have faith, believers" type numbers.
    Dec 14, 2014. 07:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Implications Beyond The Electric Car Industry [View article]
    How about tesla focus on their core business and try making a penny of profit on autos before making grandiose claims about taking over yet another industry?

    I asked for some realistic numbers and no one could answer me. These utility numbers are even worse than the automobile numbers.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Gigathreat [View article]
    "Tesla and EVs being a dead end."

    Batteries ARE a DEAD END. At best, they're an interim for a few years. But fuel cells are an inevitability. Batteries just don't have the energy to weight ratio to power any large vehicles. So for trucks to be emission free, they'll have to use fuel cells.

    Energy densities: http://bit.ly/18PbUnb

    Eventually we will run out of petroleum. How will we fly planes then? You can power a jet engine with hydrogen. Can't do that with a battery. Rockets in space? - You can power a rocket in a vacuum with hydrogen. Try doing that with a battery.

    The technology is here NOW. A hydrogen car with 300 miles of range and 5 minute fuel up is about the price (maybe cheaper) than an EV with the same range. And they are falling in price faster than batteries. Some people are so invested in Tesla stock that they can't see reality. They would rather invest in worthless superchargers for the rich and gigaflop factories at taxpayer expense to delay the inevitable.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Study: Nanoparticles could cut lithium-ion battery charging time [View news story]
    "If this is true then the question would be, who would be the second mover willing to make such a massive capital investment to capitalize massive improvements, that wouldn't be in turn taking the same risk?"

    If some incredible innovation came up that made batteries charge in seconds, you wouldn't need to make a gigafactory sized plant to capitalize on it.

    My point is that Tesla is making a bet on scale. But that exposes them to other risks (not just that the demand may not materialize). You are missing the point when you say that someone else would have to make the same bet to capitalize on possible new innovations. They don't. They could make a small or normal sized factory to capitalize on the innovation without trying to benefit from scale.

    Why do you think no one else wants to make a giga sized battery factory?
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model S At $80K: What A Deal [View article]
    2 years is when fuel cell cars will reach 300 miles of range at a cost of under $35 k. That's the tipping point when mass adoption will go to fuel cell cars instead of battery cars. Elon Musk probably realized this recently which is why he went all out on the giga factory. That's his Hail Mary pass.
    Oct 10, 2014. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That The iPhone 6 Is Out, Time To Put Down The Apple Kool-Aid [View article]
    The encryption scheme wasn't invented by Apple. Google and other companies are also planning on using the same encryption. Many people freely contributed to public encryption (a very difficult problem).
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles Are The Future And Tesla Is At The Forefront [View article]
    @tech talker, source: http://on.wsj.com/R1uyl9

    "When an electric car rolls off the production line, it has already been responsible for 30,000 pounds of carbon-dioxide emission."

    Your other claims can be dismissed as easily with a few searches. You attack on me for attacking an 'accredited businessman'?? It's a free country tech talker, I can criticize Musk even if you think he's god. Musk has lied before and has pushed for extremely unfair laws while running Paypal to enable a monopoly. Maybe you should read up on those things?
    Sep 29, 2014. 05:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's 'Fool Cells' Won't Bother Tesla [View article]
    If Elon Musk really thought fuel cells were a non-issue, he wouldn't waste time name calling. If someone really presented a technology that had no chance to compete, you wouldn't bother with it.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's 'Fool Cells' Won't Bother Tesla [View article]
    " If we also assume that the future of the automobile will be either HFC or BEV, which solution will be victorious?"

    To answer that, why not look at what is happening in the market for forklifts? In a warehouse, you can't have a forklift that uses a combustion engine due to the lack of ventilation so gas/propane powered forklifts are out. Forklift purchases are also free of marketing and image bias (unlike consumer vehicles). There are also no government subsidies for buying a battery forklift.

    In other words, forklifts present a pure battery versus fuel cell comparison. So take a look at what kind of forklifts major companies like Walmart have started buying in mass quantities to replace their battery forklifts with (it's fuel cells): http://bit.ly/1vnQwQ8
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Pay Just Lose Billions? [View article]
    "Maybe I'm being naive, but I can't imagine someone going to all that trouble to steal my fingerprint just to get into my iPhone."

    I didn't say people would be doing this in droves. I responded to someone who said it couldn't be done, and only to that claim. But biometrics is not a true solution to the problem of authenticating. Not retina scans, facial imaging, etc. Those are all flawed and harder to handle once compromised.
    Oct 29, 2014. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model S At $80K: What A Deal [View article]
    Irrelevant. All that matters is tesla must produce a car that goes 260 miles for under $35 k. That is minimally what they need for any hope of mass adoption (may also need better cold and hot weather performance). And tesla is priced for mass adoption, not as a luxury, small market car producer which they still have not done profitably.

    They won't be able to do this. And they only have about a couple years before a looming deadline.
    Oct 10, 2014. 02:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. government threatened huge fines to force Yahoo to release data [View news story]
    Unlike Microsoft who basically handed over the data without even trying to challenge it.
    Sep 11, 2014. 10:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
104 Comments
137 Likes