The Future Of Royalty Fees: Another Piece Of The Pandora Bull Case [View article]
In a nutshell, royalty rates have only been decided on until 2015. So Pandora will scrap by until then. But considering how important they've become, Pandora will likely be in a better position to negotiate favorable rates after 2015.
Why Microsoft's Windows Phone Is Failing In The Marketplace [View article]
Apple was not the first mover in this field. Their app store had little to do with their success. And Google didn't win by giving carriers more control. When android first came out, the major carriers did not want it despite having more control than they do now.
It was neither users nor carriers who determined Android's fate. Rather, Android succeeded by winning over the developers who write the apps. Their terms and control over developers is much more favorable than Apple's.
Microsoft is aware of this now but are going about the wrong way to fix it (trying to pay developers to port their apps). WP7 won't succeed beyond a small group of users (who aren't really 'app aware') if they can't change the sentiment of developers towards them.
I don't know of anyone claiming Pandora is the next Apple. Where do you get this notion?
If you want to make a comparison, the one to do it with is Google. Here are the criticisms leveled at Google before their IPO: 1- They don't make anything. 2- Larger, better funded competitors will crush them. 3- Their entire business model is based on an algorithm that is easy to replicate.
How does that compare with the criticisms leveled at Pandora?
Odds Are Roughly 1/100 of a Black Swan Event [View article]
Yes, black swans in the context of falsifiability has been around for a while (every observation you have of swans being white does not disprove the existence of black swans). But this is clearly not the term the author is using, right?
The author is using Taleb's term... or I should say 'misusing' it. And the distinction is not trivial. Black Swans (Taleb's term) have non-computable probabilities. And the difficulty that people in finance have of understanding this point is what makes their impact so significant. (I'd also add that people in finance seem to want to avoid this significant point by digressing into semantics instead).
Odds Are Roughly 1/100 of a Black Swan Event [View article]
The definition of a Black Swan is that they're unexpected... meaning you can't put a probability on them happening. Saying that Black Swans have a 1% probability or that they're 'increasingly prevalent' is misunderstanding the term. And by the way, Nassim Taleb who coined the term, has clearly stated that the financial crisis (which took down Lehman) was NOT a Black Swan.
There's never really been a high correlation between how much a company innovates and how much they spend on R&D. Look at companies like HP, IBM and Microsoft and this is all too apparent. In fact, you're more likely to find correlation by looking at geography... companies with the highest return on R&D spending tend to be located very close to each other.
Goodbye Apple, Goodbye Nokia: New Battles in the Smart Phone Space [View article]
Nokia does not want to go the android route because they say it does not allow them to differentiate. Since the only way to differentiate on android is through hardware, they've essentially admitted they can't make better hardware than competitors.
If you can't compete on hardware, then the only thing left is software/os. So Nokia goes and uses Windows for their OS, which basically is an admission they can't compete on software either. So they're basically useless. What's left? Marketing? I suppose they have a distribution chain they like to tout or so I hear.
It May Be Time to Load Up on Coffee Holding Co. [View article]
The Future Of Royalty Fees: Another Piece Of The Pandora Bull Case [View article]
The Power Of Pandora: They've Cracked The Code [View article]
Why Microsoft's Windows Phone Is Failing In The Marketplace [View article]
It was neither users nor carriers who determined Android's fate. Rather, Android succeeded by winning over the developers who write the apps. Their terms and control over developers is much more favorable than Apple's.
Microsoft is aware of this now but are going about the wrong way to fix it (trying to pay developers to port their apps). WP7 won't succeed beyond a small group of users (who aren't really 'app aware') if they can't change the sentiment of developers towards them.
Pandora: Internet Radio's Apple? [View article]
If you want to make a comparison, the one to do it with is Google. Here are the criticisms leveled at Google before their IPO:
1- They don't make anything.
2- Larger, better funded competitors will crush them.
3- Their entire business model is based on an algorithm that is easy to replicate.
How does that compare with the criticisms leveled at Pandora?
Odds Are Roughly 1/100 of a Black Swan Event [View article]
The author is using Taleb's term... or I should say 'misusing' it. And the distinction is not trivial. Black Swans (Taleb's term) have non-computable probabilities. And the difficulty that people in finance have of understanding this point is what makes their impact so significant. (I'd also add that people in finance seem to want to avoid this significant point by digressing into semantics instead).
Odds Are Roughly 1/100 of a Black Swan Event [View article]
Apple: Not Spending Enough on R&D? [View article]
Goodbye Apple, Goodbye Nokia: New Battles in the Smart Phone Space [View article]
If you can't compete on hardware, then the only thing left is software/os. So Nokia goes and uses Windows for their OS, which basically is an admission they can't compete on software either. So they're basically useless. What's left? Marketing? I suppose they have a distribution chain they like to tout or so I hear.