Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View oregondean's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Google Looks To Expand Its Addressable Market Size With Satellite Launch [View article]
    Launching satellites is just part of the "opportunity". Receiving those signals and being able to transmit back is going to make some antenna company quite happy. After all, the Internet is a bi-directional beast.
    Jun 4 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's R&D Spend Points To Multiple New Products Exiting The Pipeline [View article]
    Please be careful how you compare patent filings. Samsung, IBM and then next 19 top filers may have much broader product ranges. We should compare patent filings in the relevant market spaces. Apple may not end up number 1 on the new scale ... but I suspect they would be top 3 or 4.
    Feb 3 01:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Google [View article]
    Diversification ... 2 of 7 sold over 10% of their holdings ... the rest sold less than 1%. Free cash flow and diversification are the more likely story. Sounds like someone's gonna get a new iPad for Christmas!
    Nov 11 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Has A Moat Without A Castle [View article]
    And their sales tax holiday will come to an end sooner or later too. I love Amazon as a supplier of goods, but I am not so excited about AMZN. As a consumer, I've bought a lot of goods over the years from companies that went out of business - but I never bought their stock.
    May 6 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Awaiting Period 3 Chaos [View article]
    Or you could open a "stop gain" order at $460 !!
    May 2 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Kitchen Sinks Q3, But Announces Huge Cash Plans [View article]
    Thankfully, you're "not a professional wall street "analyst"." Those guys seem to have forgot what they are supposed to be doing.
    Apr 24 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Android Vs. iOS: Will The iPad Suffer The Same Fate As The iPhone? [View article]
    Here we go again ... comparing apples to oranges ... or not.

    [a more legitimate concern is that Google's (GOOG) Android based tablets would rapidly eat up iPad's market share just like Android smartphones are dominating the smartphone market]

    If you want to analyze iOS vs. Android marketing share and infer something about the developer of the operating system that is one thing. (arguably Apple makes a lot money more money on iOS, the operating system, than Google does on Android) However, if you wish to compare hardware using iOS to hardware using Android then you need to look at the hardware manufacturers by name.

    As a single proprietary iOS vendor, Apple is doing awesome in market share. Name me another market where 20% or 60% market share respectively, and more importantly the majority of the market profits, would not be praised with a proprietary product. When comparing hardware vendors, other than Samsung (i.e. 1 competitor) the other suppliers of products using the generic Android O/S are minuscule compared to Apple (and Samsung) in both units and margin dollars.

    So we have two dominant competitors - what in the world is wrong - or different - about that than any other industry?

    Let's look at the Prius division of Toyota - Your argument is kind of like saying the Prius division is going away because all of the gasoline vehicles (GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, Volvo, and 100 other manufacturers) sell more cars. Buut the Prius division is highly profitable (presumably). Prius is one model from one company - don't compare it to all of the other non-electric cars lumped together - that doesn't make sense. If you want to compare Prius electric to Volvo gasoline - one on one - that's fine but not 1 on 100, i.e. all of the gasoline vehicles.

    Apple is but one company that in the case of both iPhone and iPad essentially made the category viable (I know they weren't the first in either category - but they made both categories explode in sales). Of course manufacturer "first" in a category will always lose unit market share - that is to be expected and is not necessarily a bad thing. The key, which Apple has been able to manage exceptionally well, is that they dominate the take home of margin dollars (and an awesome ecosystem). Ultimately, there is no reward in the board room or on wall street for selling the most units, the rewards are for for revenues and margin/profit dollars.

    - Does it matter if Apple does not have 70% market share (iOS or by device)? no.
    - Does Apple need to make sure it's market share does not go to zero? yes.
    - Does it matter that total Apple's margin dollars are the highest in the segments? absolutely?
    - Do they need to make sure they keep making money on their product sales? yes.
    - Does the fact that the rest of the world uses Google Android and Apple uses iOS matter? yes, because Apple is monetizing iOS.
    - If Android outsells iOS, or Apple has less than 50% O/S market share mean bad things? Absolutely not.
    - Do the trends in market share matter? yes.
    - Should we be looking at market unit growth alongside market share? yes. These markets continue to grow.
    - Do the trends in margin dollars matter? Yes, more than market share does. Apple's margin dollars continue to grow in spite of declines in market share and the ups and downs of absolute product margins.
    - And do all of those other market dynamics about product attributes and customer needs matter? absolutely!
    Apr 8 10:52 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Rumors Are Swirling About Music Deals This Week: Buy The Rumor [View article]
    Or all of the above. Truly sewing up content (audio, video, old & new) on an awesome platform (iOS/OS X) on superior hardware (iPhone, iPad, Mac) in a integrated (closed!) environment (iTunes, App Store, iStreaming) could be the piece d'resistance. They have the cash - I'd rather they invest in their future than dole it out to us - much higher total investor ROI!
    Apr 7 06:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Is A Growth Catalyst [View article]
    "Despite profit margin erosion, I would always welcome any additional source of revenue so as long as it adds to the bottom line."

    I agree. I also wonder why this is a positive for Google and a negative when applied to Apple?
    Mar 21 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Exist 3 Years From Now? How Much Will It Be Worth? [View article]
    A day going by without an innovative product just might just be a day _closer_ to an innovative product. Don't forget Apple has a track record of surprising success with most of its new products over the past 10 years or so, however, like every other company, they have had a few dogs and "hobbies" as well.

    Whether the author is right or wrong is not really the point - to me it's a point of view and perspective that should be considered when I invest and or trade.
    Feb 22 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]
    So if Apple competes with Samsung they have no innovation and if they don't they are going out of business because Samsung is dominating. Seems like analysts think they are damned if the do and damned if they don't.

    Leveraging existing technology in new markets is good business. And frankly, some "cannibalization" of your own existing products to grow the over margin dollars of new markets is good too. Of course we would prefer to take share from others, but preventing others from growing share (or shrinking their share) is also good strategy.

    Take a look at this chart from this article to better understand how Apple is competing across the board ... and apparently winning because they have the profit margins dollar dominance (more important I think that unit share dominance) to show for it.
    Jan 9 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is working on a cheaper iPhone that could launch later this year, the WSJ reports. One source says the device could resemble the regular iPhone, but "with a different, less-expensive body." The cheapest iPhone currently sold (the 8GB iPhone 4) goes for $450 unlocked, putting it out of the reach of many emerging markets buyers, as well as some prepaid buyers in developed markets. The fact low-end Android phones sell for much less (sometimes less than $150 unlocked) has done wonders for Android's international share. [View news story]
    "The fact low-end Android phones sell for much less (sometimes less than $150 unlocked) has done wonders for Android's international share" ... and has done nothing for the International profit margins of the hardware suppliers supporting the Android platform.

    Question - is it better to have the largest unit market share or the largest cash profit margin dollars?
    Jan 8 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Longer Look At Apple's Secret Hedge Fund [View article]
    Can the international divisions of Apple that are holding the un-repatriated cash buy Apple stock and hold it offshore?
    Jan 7 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Repeat Of Last Quarter? [View article]
    Bill - I'd also like to see as part of that article how the analysts have performed to their 1 year estimates as a rolling quarter by quarter waterfall chart. Show by key analyst (name names) and as a group - that would allow us to understand who is who in that label "analysts" who have the luxury of saying whether Apple exceeds or disappoints to their guidance.
    Jan 7 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Comprehensive Analysis Of NPS Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    "The headcount of patients with rare disorders is not high". This is a true statement for a single specific rare disease, however, with over 7,000 rare diseases the actual occurrence of rare disease is 1 in 10 Americans, or over 30,000,000 people. The overall market is large and prevalent.

    * Approximately 50% of the people affected by rare diseases are children
    * 30% of children with rare disease will not live to see their 5th birthday
    * Rare diseases are responsible for 35% of deaths in the first year of life
    * The prevalence distribution of rare diseases is skewed – 80% of all rare disease patients are affected by approximately 350 rare diseases
    * See to learn more

    @JJorgen - you are right, those who have the diseases that the various therapies are targeted for are very anxious for therapies. As a rare disease parent, and President/founder of a rare disease foundation I can tell you that parents who have the choice between death or some hope of life know the one side affect of a new drug that is never listed on the label ... "not taking this drug will lead to certain, and often painful, death" needs to be contrasted with the the hope given by a specific therapy, its secondary affects and the path without therapy.

    The Orphan Drug Act gives companies developing therapies for rare diseases certain (modest) financial incentives and tax breaks ... but most importantly it gives them the opportunity to apply for Orphan Drug Designation which guarantees them a period of market exclusivity. Orphan Designation is made by the FDA and EMA.

    The ORDR (Office of Rare Disease Research) at the NIH maintains the list of rare disease. NORD has a similar database but they are the followers, not the owners. --- a copy of the ORDR list --- link to the ORDR

    Our job as a foundation is to moderate that hope because there are no guarantees of positive outcomes - even with good approved therapies. There is a fine line between hope and desperation - and when you child's life is on the lion the emotions can run very high.

    1 in 10 Americans affected by rare disease - look around you, hug someone this time of year, cherish life, and honor those who have gone before you.

    Dec 27 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment