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nlitwinetz

nlitwinetz
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  • Why Apple Can Take Nuance Down [View article]
    The whole premise of this article is absurd. In FY2013, the Nuance Mobile & Consumer division took in roughly $470M in revenue. This revenue comes from the Dragon consumer products, Swype and voice recognition licensing from Samsung, Blackberry, Apple, etc.. Since Nuance doesn't provide the numbers, lets guess that Apple makes up 10% (very generous) of these sales, or $47M a year. That means that licensing to Apple makes up about 2.5% of Nuance's total revenue. Losing Apple as a customer would hurt the bottom line...but not much.
    Now lets look at the flip side or the argument...Are we to believe that Apple plans to develop their own world class VR technology that supports 10 different languages using a small team in Boston for less than $50M a year? The notion is absurd. Likely, the team in Boston is working WITH Nuance (which is also located in the Boston area) to ensure that Siri and Nuance's VR integrate seamlessly. I don't think it makes much sense for Apple to buy Nuance (unless they plan to get into the medical field). But it also doesn't make much sense (or any) for Apple to build their own VR software.
    Jul 1 09:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pump The Brakes: Micron Is Worth $18 - $22 Per Share [View article]
    Why are you comparing Micron to COH and BBBY to come up with a multiple? It might be a better idea to compare to another semi or at least technology company.
    Jun 26 02:13 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Threat And High Executive Compensation Make Nuance A Bad Buy [View article]
    You failed to mention that Nuance is in the process of transitioning to a subscription based licensing model. This means that revenue which would have traditionally been booked at the time of sale is now recognized gradually over the course of the subscription. This translated to a huge drop in earnings for the time being while the more consistent revenue stream is developed. It is also why Nuance started reporting "bookings" so that investors can compare bookings numbers (which tell the real story) instead of revenue (which is distorted due to the change in licensing).
    Yes, Nuance executives are overpaid, but you are painting a very inaccurate picture of the company.
    Also, Apple is just one customer of one division of Nuance. Even if they did decide to jump ship, it probably wouldn't impact the bottom line that much. I'd be much more concerned with the delays surrounding the ICD-10 medical coding standards and how they may impact Nuance's medical division.
    Jun 19 11:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Nuance [View news story]
    Icahn owns about $1B worth of Nuance and about $2.5B worth of Apple. He owns enough of Nuance (about 20%) to guide it in the direction he wants. However, he doesn't own nearly enough Apple (less than 0.5%) to have much of a say there. It has been speculated for a while that Icahn was trying to get Apple to buy Nuance...but he doesn't have nearly enough clout to force Apple into that decision. However he DOES have enough power at Nuance to push for a sale to Apple's biggest competitor, Samsung. He can essentially force Apple to device if they want to buy Nuance or see the technology behind Siri sold to their biggest competitor.
    Jun 16 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Nuance [View news story]
    I don't understand why Icahn would be looking to sell Nuance to Samsung...probably just trying to force Apple's hand.
    Jun 16 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Need To Know About The New Surface Pro 3 [View article]
    The combination of Surface 3-like laptops and 5"+ phones are going to completely squeeze out tablets. Since getting a Galaxy Note 3, the only time I ever use my tablet is when my kid wants to watch a movie on it. My ultrabook has met a similar fate (it now sits in my basement as my media server), since getting my Surface Pro. Maybe a device like the Surface RT (cheap tablet with keyboard) can survive as an elementary school companion but beyond that I just don't see a market for (traditional) tablets.
    May 22 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Need To Know About The New Surface Pro 3 [View article]
    What does your laptop offer that the Surface 3 doesn't? Does it have an i9 processor or something?
    May 22 05:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Listens, Repurchases Stock [View article]
    Incandescent bulbs are going to be a non-factor soon...the real competition are CFL bulbs. The savings difference between a CFL bulb and a LED bulb isn't significant enough for people to pay 3x more for the LED bulb. Sure, LED's last a lot longer and don't contain mercury...but the price tag of LED bulbs (especially the higher watt bulbs) will scare a lot of consumers off. Once LED bulbs reach cost parity with CFL bulbs, it will be game over.
    May 8 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm A Passive Investor (And You Should Be Too) [View article]
    You could practically write the same article and title it "Why you shouldn't be an Entrepreneur". Being an active investor is just like being an entrepreneur. You end up dedicating a lot of your time, energy and money and will most likely end up failing. The safe bet is to be a passive investor and punch a time card...but that doesn't mean it is the right choice for everyone.
    Feb 11 02:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sapphire Update: Can It Win Against Gorilla? [View article]
    I never short stocks. I did however sell my GLW shares when it became clear that Sapphire was a clear threat. I will probably buy back into GLW when the dip occurs.
    Feb 10 12:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sapphire Update: Can It Win Against Gorilla? [View article]
    Apple, had no vested interest in choosing either Gorilla Glass or Sapphire. I am sure their engineers ran MANY tests to determine what the superior material was. The result...Apple and GTAT are spinning up enough Sapphire production capacity to create ~200M screen covers. To me this clearly indicates that Apple believes Sapphire is a superior material to Gorilla Glass. The only remaining questions are:
    1. Do the "me too" device manufactures follow Apple's lead?
    2. Will Sapphire end up taking over in tablets as well.

    I don't doubt GLW has a bight future ahead of it, but I'd wait to buy until the inevitable price dip once Apple officially announces they are using Sapphire screens on the next generation of devices.
    Feb 10 11:57 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Getting Innovative To Gain A Foothold [View article]
    You are correct that virtually any CPU can run Android, but only x86 chips can run Windows.
    Feb 6 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Please Give Up On Mobile [View article]
    While both Apple and Samsung are vertically integrated to a certain extend, both are willing to use the best available CPUs in their devices. This is evident in the fact that the Galaxy S4/Note3 use QCOM processors and that Apple's non-mobile devices all sport Intel processors. If Intel can come out with a SoC that is superior to what QCOM offers then Intel will own the lions share of the mobile business. This seems like a goal worthy of "pissing one if five dollars down the drain".
    Jan 20 12:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire Poses Little Threat To Corning's Gorilla Glass [View article]
    I think there is room for both companies. It appears that Sapphire is going to be expanding their market into larger and larger displays. They started with camera lenses and fingerprint sensors, but it is clear that Apple plans to use Sapphire for displays at some point soon (hence the huge investment in GTAT). Meanwhile Gorilla Glass can continue to expand their market into monitors, car windshields, building glass, etc.. As Sapphire squeezes Gorilla Glass out of small screens, Gorilla Glass will start to get wins in large screens.
    Jan 10 09:06 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Amnesia In The Memory Market: Micron May Be A Good Short [View article]
    I agree with the idea of shorting Micron, I just don't agree with the timing. The earnings next week should be huge and I see the stock gaping up. The current capacity limitations and the pricing power that it affords Micron all point to good earnings and good projections. Once the stock gaps up to $25-$35 I am all for shorting (via Puts). Intel is currently sitting on a TON of excess capacity..the question is, will they fill it with their own DRAM/NAND or will they expand their JV with Micron. If Intel goes it on their own then MU will suffer and could end up trading around $10 again, but if INTC/MU expand their JV with the additional capacity then Micron could end up around $40. I would recommend January calls to catch the earnings upside and then maybe a straddle going forward after that due to the huge upside/downside potential of the new capacity.
    Jan 5 01:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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82 Comments
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