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pomperj

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  • ICICI's Long-Term Triggers Are Extremely Positive And Looks Poised For Strong Upside And Re-Rating Of Its Stock [View article]
    Good overview. Thanks.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best International Opportunity For The Second Quarter: Spain [View article]
    Great article, good points where to focus.
    I just miss Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia, Canada.
    Can you add their statistics?
    Apr 2, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - The Simple Prophecy [View article]
    The idea is great to simulate market forecasts, and chart the possible outcome probabilities.
    The weak point of the approach, if I understand correctly, is that markets are nonlinear: they include the investors who imitate each other, and create positive feedbacks. And other factors create positive/negative feedbacks like te FED, the banking system, the bond market, etc.
    Anyway, much better than guesswork.
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Beats Estimates, But Cash Burn And Debt Load Are Alarming [View article]
    "Conclusion
    Transocean appears to have healthy operating margins, yet may face liquidity issues amid the contraction in the oil industry. The company has an enterprise value of about 3.9x EBITDA. However, its debt load may be untenable amid the industry contraction."

    While every word is correct, why not explore the evident questions in the article?

    1)"have healthy operating margins"
    What operating margins and parameters are healthy?
    Where is the breakeven point at different oil prices, expressed in years?
    How long will the cash last in different scenarios?

    2)"debt load may be untenable amid the industry contraction:
    What industry contraction parameters are risky for RIG in years and prices?
    1 more year, at $50 oil is untenable? Or only after 4 years at $50?
    3 more years at $60 oil is untenable? Or only after 6 years at $60?

    3)Could you extend the simple qualitative statements with
    simple quantitative approach to add value?
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean LTD's Troubles Started Before The Current Market Slowdown [View article]
    1)Clearly, you are correct that Transocean overpaid somewhat with the 18B and 17B acquisition price for Falcon and Global. And has duly suffered with goodwill losses since many years since.
    But right now, after Q32014, this is not much of an issue for explaining RIG troubles.


    2)The basic idea of the article, that a weaker customer satisfaction (whatever it is at offshore drillers) might be predictive and is direct relation to stock price, is at least unproven.
    Any serious research on this, in up and down cycles in oilservice industry (except the evidently absurd: "39% percentage point for 1 point satisfaction point" statement)?

    3)Just imagine that the 23% short interest disappears after this negative bubble period in RIG price is over,
    or imagine 120 USD Oil price instead of 75, and at Oilcycle top instead of bottom,

    what do you predict for RIG price assuming the same "customer satisfaction"?
    Nov 19, 2014. 08:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Important Takeaways From Transocean's Latest Quarter [View article]
    The aim of RIG cash conservation efforts is to avoid bankruptcy risk at the bottom of the cycle. I tried to calculate Altman's Z-score, as best bankruptcy risk-tool,
    with 2014Q3 income/balance sheet, and to compare it to 2012Q4.
    (The quarterly data must be adjusted to yearly time periods.)

    I collected the following data:

    Working Capital: Current Assets-Current Liabilities
    2014=6367-3546=2821M 2012=8647-5463=3184M

    Total assets
    2014=29964M 2012=35255M

    Retained earnings
    2014=4088M 2012=3855M

    EBIT
    2014=612*4 (last Q*4)=2450M 2012=1581M

    MarketValue of Equity=BookValue=Asset...
    2014=14957 2012=15700

    Total liabilities=current+lo...
    2014=3546+11459=15007 2012=18525

    Sales
    2014=2279*4=9116 2012=9196

    Now, inputting into the Altman Formula, my results are a little surprising:
    For 2014 the Zscore=1.47
    For 2012 the Zscore=1.18

    This suggests that RIG was closer to bankruptcy in 2012Q4, at price 45-55 USD, than now at 26 level.
    Where am I wrong?
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Important Takeaways From Transocean's Latest Quarter [View article]
    I read at least 5 other articles on RIG this week, and this one was the best in terms of practical approach and focused on essential factors for the 2015 outlook. A value- and cash-preserving management-oriented difference and refreshing outlook on the really important action-points, instead of all those deep-bear conclusions derived from simplistic extrapolations from last year. Thank you.
    Nov 15, 2014. 08:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Transocean $2.2 Billion Loss And Dividend Risk [View article]
    1)On my data 2013 Q3 net is closer to 1.37.(not 1.50)

    2)The net earnings were 0.73, 1.43, 0.92 since,
    and the current 0.96 is above consensus expectation of 0.92.
    And, considering the strong oil downcycle, a 2014Q3 drop to 0.96 is at least "not bad".

    3)The outlook for next 12 months is murky, with E expectations of 2.60-3.65/year range.
    Most of them extrapolated the Oil price around current level.

    4)But what if Oil simply moves back to last 5 years average, as production below cost is not really sustainable longer than 3 month in oil business?
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Rousseff Wins Brazilian Presidential Elections, Outlook For Brazilian Stock Market Is Black [View article]
    Still, if you select the 3 largest Cap. in each country, and outline the fundamentals with actual updates, you certainly would add a lot to the discussions here. Anyways, good luck.
    Oct 29, 2014. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Stepping In To Start Buying iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF [View article]
    Good contrarian outlook.
    And, since China blow up yesterday, a strong EEM rally could help EWZ, PBR and EBR to a spectacular, albeit not sustained, rally.
    Oct 29, 2014. 05:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Rousseff Wins Brazilian Presidential Elections, Outlook For Brazilian Stock Market Is Black [View article]
    Yours is a stereotypical magazine level article. You certainly can do much better writing from home fields: what about Eastern Europe outlooks by country?
    Are you sure you can feel and assess the Brazil outlook from a univ. chair in Slovakia?
    Oct 28, 2014. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dirty Dozen Value Plays Of The Entire NYSE And Nasdaq [View article]
    I like the approach. By dropping the extreme cases on this list, I think at least 8 of them should prove good. A checkup of Altman's score would help a lot to avoid lemons.
    Sep 28, 2014. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Transocean A Strong Value Play? [View article]
    Excellent article, thank you.
    Last week I bought 4000 shares, along similar valuation outlook.
    Sep 7, 2014. 07:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Cup: ATM Fees And Petrol [View article]
    PBR+BBD is good idea, and soccer WC is a great catalyst. This is a good and timely idea. I just happen to agree with your TA. The Brazil fundamentals and likely gov. change (see riots) also support the projections longer term.

    Anyway, in May the money flow from Developed Markets to EM just accelerated, with Brazil+Russia+India.. up 25%, while SPY+DAX+... climbed a pathetic 2-3%.
    This turning trend will most probably continue.
    Thank you.
    Jun 10, 2014. 02:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Catalysts That Could Send Gold Prices Higher [View article]
    Thank you for sharing your reasonable and realistic outlook on gold.
    As the Barrick-Newmont merger shows the effects of huge cost pressure, and extreme strains on this sector's major producers at current gold prices, while the buyer-side shows increased motivation to buy and diminishing trust in other central-bank's currencies, I think the gold market is ready to show a nice upward surprise in the next couple of years.
    May 5, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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