Can you add their statistics?]]>

Can you add their statistics?]]>

Anyway, much better than guesswork.]]>

Anyway, much better than guesswork.]]>

While every word is correct, why not explore the evident questions in the article?

1)"have healthy operating margins"

What operating margins and parameters are healthy?

Where is the breakeven point at different oil prices, expressed in years?

How long will the cash last in different scenarios?

2)"debt load may be untenable amid the industry contraction:

What industry contraction parameters are risky for RIG in years and prices?

1 more year, at $50 oil is untenable? Or only after 4 years at $50?

3 more years at $60 oil is untenable? Or only after 6 years at $60?

3)Could you extend the simple qualitative statements with

simple quantitative approach to add value?]]>

While every word is correct, why not explore the evident questions in the article?

1)"have healthy operating margins"

What operating margins and parameters are healthy?

Where is the breakeven point at different oil prices, expressed in years?

How long will the cash last in different scenarios?

2)"debt load may be untenable amid the industry contraction:

What industry contraction parameters are risky for RIG in years and prices?

1 more year, at $50 oil is untenable? Or only after 4 years at $50?

3 more years at $60 oil is untenable? Or only after 6 years at $60?

3)Could you extend the simple qualitative statements with

simple quantitative approach to add value?]]>

2)The basic idea of the article, that a weaker customer satisfaction (whatever it is at offshore drillers) might be predictive and is direct relation to stock price, is at least unproven.

Any serious research on this, in up and down cycles in oilservice industry (except the evidently absurd: "39% percentage point for 1 point satisfaction point" statement)?

3)Just imagine that the 23% short interest disappears after this negative bubble period in RIG price is over,

or imagine 120 USD Oil price instead of 75, and at Oilcycle top instead of bottom,

what do you predict for RIG price assuming the same "customer satisfaction"?]]>

2)The basic idea of the article, that a weaker customer satisfaction (whatever it is at offshore drillers) might be predictive and is direct relation to stock price, is at least unproven.

Any serious research on this, in up and down cycles in oilservice industry (except the evidently absurd: "39% percentage point for 1 point satisfaction point" statement)?

3)Just imagine that the 23% short interest disappears after this negative bubble period in RIG price is over,

or imagine 120 USD Oil price instead of 75, and at Oilcycle top instead of bottom,

what do you predict for RIG price assuming the same "customer satisfaction"?]]>

(The quarterly data must be adjusted to yearly time periods.)

I collected the following data:

Working Capital: Current Assets-Current Liabilities

2014=6367-3546=2821M 2012=8647-5463=3184M

Total assets

2014=29964M 2012=35255M

Retained earnings

2014=4088M 2012=3855M

EBIT

2014=612*4 (last Q*4)=2450M 2012=1581M

MarketValue of Equity=BookValue=Asset...

2014=14957 2012=15700

Total liabilities=current+lo...

2014=3546+11459=15007 2012=18525

Sales

2014=2279*4=9116 2012=9196

Now, inputting into the Altman Formula, my results are a little surprising:

For 2014 the Zscore=1.47

For 2012 the Zscore=1.18

This suggests that RIG was closer to bankruptcy in 2012Q4, at price 45-55 USD, than now at 26 level.

Where am I wrong?]]>

(The quarterly data must be adjusted to yearly time periods.)

I collected the following data:

Working Capital: Current Assets-Current Liabilities

2014=6367-3546=2821M 2012=8647-5463=3184M

Total assets

2014=29964M 2012=35255M

Retained earnings

2014=4088M 2012=3855M

EBIT

2014=612*4 (last Q*4)=2450M 2012=1581M

MarketValue of Equity=BookValue=Asset...

2014=14957 2012=15700

Total liabilities=current+lo...

2014=3546+11459=15007 2012=18525

Sales

2014=2279*4=9116 2012=9196

Now, inputting into the Altman Formula, my results are a little surprising:

For 2014 the Zscore=1.47

For 2012 the Zscore=1.18

This suggests that RIG was closer to bankruptcy in 2012Q4, at price 45-55 USD, than now at 26 level.

Where am I wrong?]]>

2)The net earnings were 0.73, 1.43, 0.92 since,

and the current 0.96 is above consensus expectation of 0.92.

And, considering the strong oil downcycle, a 2014Q3 drop to 0.96 is at least "not bad".

3)The outlook for next 12 months is murky, with E expectations of 2.60-3.65/year range.

Most of them extrapolated the Oil price around current level.

4)But what if Oil simply moves back to last 5 years average, as production below cost is not really sustainable longer than 3 month in oil business?]]>

2)The net earnings were 0.73, 1.43, 0.92 since,

and the current 0.96 is above consensus expectation of 0.92.

And, considering the strong oil downcycle, a 2014Q3 drop to 0.96 is at least "not bad".

3)The outlook for next 12 months is murky, with E expectations of 2.60-3.65/year range.

Most of them extrapolated the Oil price around current level.

4)But what if Oil simply moves back to last 5 years average, as production below cost is not really sustainable longer than 3 month in oil business?]]>

]]>

]]>

Anyway, in May the money flow from Developed Markets to EM just accelerated, with Brazil+Russia+India.. up 25%, while SPY+DAX+... climbed a pathetic 2-3%.

This turning trend will most probably continue.

Thank you.]]>

Anyway, in May the money flow from Developed Markets to EM just accelerated, with Brazil+Russia+India.. up 25%, while SPY+DAX+... climbed a pathetic 2-3%.

This turning trend will most probably continue.

Thank you.]]>

Patience has a good chance to pay for RIG buyers at the current prices. But in case SPY will "return to normal", this payment period might move further out in time. ]]>

Patience has a good chance to pay for RIG buyers at the current prices. But in case SPY will "return to normal", this payment period might move further out in time. ]]>

]]>

]]>

Thank you.]]>

Thank you.]]>

1)Calculate the fair value of S&P500 index, as of dec.28, 2013, by using the Graham Number (GN).

GN is a measure of maximum fair value of any stock, created by the "godfather of value investing" Benjamin Graham. It is based on a stock's EPS and book value per share (BVPS).

Graham Number = SQRT(22.5 x TTM EPS x MRQ BVPS)

2)Let’s calculate the maximum fair value of SPY, as if it were a single stock.

SPY (ttm) earnings are 105.42

BVPS is 897 (=1840/2.05)

GN=SQRT (22.5*105.4*897)

The maximum fair value of SPY is 1459.

At the current real SPY value of 1840,

SPY is valued by 26% over its maximum fair value.

Has Graham made the mistake in valuation, or you?

I think the years 2014-2014 will give a definite answer.]]>

1)Calculate the fair value of S&P500 index, as of dec.28, 2013, by using the Graham Number (GN).

GN is a measure of maximum fair value of any stock, created by the "godfather of value investing" Benjamin Graham. It is based on a stock's EPS and book value per share (BVPS).

Graham Number = SQRT(22.5 x TTM EPS x MRQ BVPS)

2)Let’s calculate the maximum fair value of SPY, as if it were a single stock.

SPY (ttm) earnings are 105.42

BVPS is 897 (=1840/2.05)

GN=SQRT (22.5*105.4*897)

The maximum fair value of SPY is 1459.

At the current real SPY value of 1840,

SPY is valued by 26% over its maximum fair value.

Has Graham made the mistake in valuation, or you?

I think the years 2014-2014 will give a definite answer.]]>

I think Gold and gold miners like NEM just bottomed. And the time is now to start to collect NEM, ABX, BNV, KGC GSS shares slowly. This sector's bottom looks strangely coinciding with the top of SPY, and the breakdown of bond markets; hey, if you think about it, this just might be the normal way...

NEM to double in 1-2 years.

Good luck.]]>

I think Gold and gold miners like NEM just bottomed. And the time is now to start to collect NEM, ABX, BNV, KGC GSS shares slowly. This sector's bottom looks strangely coinciding with the top of SPY, and the breakdown of bond markets; hey, if you think about it, this just might be the normal way...

NEM to double in 1-2 years.

Good luck.]]>

By the same way, SPY clearly has similar minimum downside potential (plus momentum overshot, as usual, 2*Szigma) after the last QE is over.

Looking at the current market that way, the breakdown risk and possible consequences are clearly pretty big. I would prefer to sell SPY and stay in China now.

Or what about an SPY/FXI short/long pair, as hedge idea?]]>

By the same way, SPY clearly has similar minimum downside potential (plus momentum overshot, as usual, 2*Szigma) after the last QE is over.

Looking at the current market that way, the breakdown risk and possible consequences are clearly pretty big. I would prefer to sell SPY and stay in China now.

Or what about an SPY/FXI short/long pair, as hedge idea?]]>

Is here hidden something like the investment theme of this decade?]]>

Is here hidden something like the investment theme of this decade?]]>

Unions, it is time to return to common sense.]]>

Unions, it is time to return to common sense.]]>

The mania of FED's around the world to print money will blow a much larger bubble than the 2000, 2007 stock manias, or 2011 gold mania ever was.

This log-periodic model proved useful to forecast the bubble and the breaking point a couple of times in the last 13 years, since the model became public.

By my calculations the model says the singularity (when the stronger than exp. price function goes to the sky, unlimited ) should be in 2013.06-2013.08. many times the model extends by a couple of months, depending on every new weeks data.

Anyway, good to have somebody make investors remember that the market is very toopy on the week when the Economist cover says WALL STREET IS BACK!

Thank you.]]>

The mania of FED's around the world to print money will blow a much larger bubble than the 2000, 2007 stock manias, or 2011 gold mania ever was.

This log-periodic model proved useful to forecast the bubble and the breaking point a couple of times in the last 13 years, since the model became public.

By my calculations the model says the singularity (when the stronger than exp. price function goes to the sky, unlimited ) should be in 2013.06-2013.08. many times the model extends by a couple of months, depending on every new weeks data.

Anyway, good to have somebody make investors remember that the market is very toopy on the week when the Economist cover says WALL STREET IS BACK!

Thank you.]]>

$5B income become $8B,

$2.2 bookvalue become $4.8B.

The current 107M cellular custumer should grow 15%/year.

think longterm.

Plus, Indonesia GDP growth close to China's.

This should be a great entry point.]]>

$5B income become $8B,

$2.2 bookvalue become $4.8B.

The current 107M cellular custumer should grow 15%/year.

think longterm.

Plus, Indonesia GDP growth close to China's.

This should be a great entry point.]]>

I would add Japan stocks as a much bigger potential with much less risk.

The reasons?

1)The yen/usd rallied since nov.2012 from 79 to 89 today. A total 10 points, which is 11% rally in 2 months. Nikkei also rallied 11%.

The financials and banks, like NMR MFG, MTU, IX, etc.rallied 23-27% close with the double speed like NIKKEI.

2)Little history: In apr.95 the yen was 81, and rallied to apr.96, in 1 year to 126. A total of 45 points, a 55% rally. The Nikkei index rallied in this period from 14.000 to 22.000, total 8.000 points, 57% rally, the financials and banks doubled.

Looks like history teaches us a usd/yen rally makes a similar size NIKKEI rally, and makes a double size rally in financials.

3)Now, use these historic data as a rule to estimate what will happen if the yen rebounds from the extreme overvalued 77 in the last year, back all the way against the USD to its historic average of cca. 125? (or maybe up to 147?)

Dont forget, the new Japan government is agreed on devaluing the yen, and revive the economy at any price. This might be strongest state+BOJ stimulus ever in Japan.

If they really will do it, (I give 85% chance)

-then NIKKEI should rally in 2013 a similar percentage like the yen, like 62%, up to cca. 14.000.

This assumes no economic/financial advantage will materialize in this period, just the potental revaluation of the yen will make that possible in USD price change of the NIKKEI portfolio.

-the japan banks should rally paralel with NIKKEI, with at least double speed, like in the last 2 months, and as they did in the past. A potential upward potential of 120% for banks.

If the similarity holds in timeframes too, this rally should last 9-12 more months, until the end2013.

I think the potential China rally pales in comparison.

]]>

I would add Japan stocks as a much bigger potential with much less risk.

The reasons?

1)The yen/usd rallied since nov.2012 from 79 to 89 today. A total 10 points, which is 11% rally in 2 months. Nikkei also rallied 11%.

The financials and banks, like NMR MFG, MTU, IX, etc.rallied 23-27% close with the double speed like NIKKEI.

2)Little history: In apr.95 the yen was 81, and rallied to apr.96, in 1 year to 126. A total of 45 points, a 55% rally. The Nikkei index rallied in this period from 14.000 to 22.000, total 8.000 points, 57% rally, the financials and banks doubled.

Looks like history teaches us a usd/yen rally makes a similar size NIKKEI rally, and makes a double size rally in financials.

3)Now, use these historic data as a rule to estimate what will happen if the yen rebounds from the extreme overvalued 77 in the last year, back all the way against the USD to its historic average of cca. 125? (or maybe up to 147?)

Dont forget, the new Japan government is agreed on devaluing the yen, and revive the economy at any price. This might be strongest state+BOJ stimulus ever in Japan.

If they really will do it, (I give 85% chance)

-then NIKKEI should rally in 2013 a similar percentage like the yen, like 62%, up to cca. 14.000.

This assumes no economic/financial advantage will materialize in this period, just the potental revaluation of the yen will make that possible in USD price change of the NIKKEI portfolio.

-the japan banks should rally paralel with NIKKEI, with at least double speed, like in the last 2 months, and as they did in the past. A potential upward potential of 120% for banks.

If the similarity holds in timeframes too, this rally should last 9-12 more months, until the end2013.

I think the potential China rally pales in comparison.

]]>