tchannon

National City Corp. Story Unlikely to Have Happy Ending

Thank you for your comments.

I wrote this article - I never worked for Harbor Federal; I have no inside information; it is purely speculation and observation.

I do however, have second hand knowledge of local people and how much stock they owned at time of buyout (SEC filings, Form 4s, etc. for directors and officers). If these people sold early, good for them and they may have - but from listening to people talk, a lot of people held on to it - shareholders big and small. I used to own the stock for years, but sold on the buyout news as it was no longer a "Ft. Pierce/Local Owned" bank.

NCC will not go away - been around for 163 years. However, I am merely suggesting that if someone is to bail them out, they are not going to do the NCC shareholders any favors. No bank or finance company has received that treatment when struggling in this market. Note the recent deals: BSC, CFC, WM, C, WB, TMA. All got aid - all had to sacrifice significant market/shareholder value to take the aid. CFC even ran up high on takeover talk only to have the deal come to life at a lower price than it ran up to.

I am not aiming to accomplishing anything - merely stating an opinion. I may be wrong, of course, but if anyone is holding out on an NCC buyout at $15, they might be waiting a long time. At least we can all agree that it is not going to be $38 anytime soon, especially after seeing 17 years of gains wiped out in less than a year.

Furthermore, if NCC is to turnaround (which they very well may(they've been through world wars, depression, etc.), more pain will have to come in the form of diluted aid from a 3rd party, job cuts, and/or reduced dividend.

If your take on the situation differs than mine, it may be time to buy more NCC if you expect a higher premium buyout and feel the bank has excellent long-term merits. Both of those scenarios are currently in questionable status, at best.

I encourage and welcome feedback...I'm not here to be right or wrong; just to share an opinion.

And yes, businesses can learn from mistakes and come back stronger; however, it does not mean you get a free pass or become exempt from paying the dues to learn from the mistake.

I have nothing to gain from this and if anything, offering a skeptical viewpoint to those that are loading up thinking $15 is going to happen tomorrow. I hope for their sake that it is the case. I think, however, we can agree that the NCC as we know it today will have to go through some serious changes to get back on track (e.g., buyout, restructure, back to the drawing board, etc.).

In the end, nobody knows, least of all me.

I welcome and enjoy discussion on the events surrounding this deal and many others. For the outsiders, it is all pure speculation and guesswork.