tchannon

$125 Oil Not Sustainable for the Time Being

As author of the article, I again claim no expertise in this arena - I just go by what I see. If I am wrong, well, I am just wrong as all have been wrong before - everyone from neophytes to sophisticated experts. If I am right, the same thing - and either way, nobody really cares.

My point is when the entire world is acting and thinking that the price of oil will go up forever and ever, well, maybe it is time to quantify the downside. Extreme peaks and troughs in a marketplace are typically characterized by irrational behavior and activity (my above article may certainly qualify) - and the subsequent collapse is often just as chaotic and irrational and often cannot be explained with logical thought.

I don't have the sophisticated data to back up the above - I will let the experts fill in the blanks. If I am wrong in my base assessment, then I am wrong, and best of luck to the oil longs. But if I am right, I take no credit - I just know I won't be holding the bag.