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writser

writser
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  • Going Private Arbitrage Offers Over 70% Annualized Return With Medium Risk [View article]
    I'm sure the CEO of Hancock would agree with that. Everybody is to blame but Maarten Pieters, the guy who wrote an article for $200 for the largest investing website worldwide, explaining literally how to exploit the odd lot clause.

    Regardless of how many pageviews your article had, posting it was a terrible idea. Alpha Vulture literally predicted what would happen. Fortunately you don't attract too many readers or it would've been over even quicker.

    At least you could be a stand up guy and admit this was _PARTIALLY_ your fault. We can argue about how much you are to blame, my rough guess would be that this article is responsible for ~25% of all people trying to exploit this deal.
    Aug 5, 2014. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Going Private Arbitrage Offers Over 70% Annualized Return With Medium Risk [View article]
    as I predicted: Je schiet jezelf in de voeten met dit artikel .. Hulde.
    Aug 4, 2014. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transformation Play; Value Micro Cap Near Its 10 Year Low [View article]
    What's your take on the latest quarterly? A $16m writedown and possibly more charges to come:

    Given our adjustments to our overhead structure, we expect selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $3.5 million quarterly for the near term, excluding restructuring charges.
    Jul 15, 2014. 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Chrome Arbitrage And $300 On The Sidewalk [View instapost]
    The affiliate business can be quite profitable.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Chrome Arbitrage And $300 On The Sidewalk [View instapost]
    At least you added the disclosure this time. That's great Chris. What would the return have been had Cal Chrome won?
    Jun 24, 2014. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Near Book Value And Primed For Growth With Recent Ownership Change, Schuff Is Very Attractive [View article]
    "Also, why sell at $31 when the stock is at $29? Cash. HC2 had the cash available and was willing and able to purchase the family portion to have access to Schuff's operations and cash flow."

    That's the optimistic scenario. Do you think the founders would cash out at an unreasonably low price? They could also launch a tender offer / pay a dividend if they thought the offer was far too low. The pessimistic scenario is: the business is simply not as valuable as we think.
    Jun 20, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greystone Logistics Appears Poised For A Major Merger [View article]
    This article probably :)
    Jun 18, 2014. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transformation Play; Value Micro Cap Near Its 10 Year Low [View article]
    Clearly investor sentiment isn't very positive for this name :) Despite management underdelivering, they are shutting down a division and a manufacturing plant. They at least _try_ to turn around (and shrink) the company. Management also took quite a paycut last year and their compensation doesn't seem excessive. I've seen worse for sure.

    Haven't bought but will monitor them.
    May 15, 2014. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asta Funding: Who Doesn't Like Free? [View article]
    The salaries are quite a source of cashflow .. Arthurn Stern (93) makes over $300k from board meetings, his son has a >$1m salary and his grandsun already earns >$200k after joining the firm last month or so. A few years ago the family also loaned money to the company.
    May 14, 2014. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Gas International Holdings: 5.7% Gross Profit In 1.5 Months [View article]
    And normally you make your assumptions explicit unless you have a different view :) Nevertheless an interesting idea.
    May 14, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Gas International Holdings: 5.7% Gross Profit In 1.5 Months [View article]
    There's nothing to calculate if you don't make an assumption about the stockprice if the deal doesn't go through. You assume 50 cent / share but that's just a rough guess. Bit strange to come up with such a specific percentage in that case.
    May 14, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Gas International Holdings: 5.7% Gross Profit In 1.5 Months [View article]
    Ah, my mistake. How did you get to the 91% then?
    May 14, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transformation Play; Value Micro Cap Near Its 10 Year Low [View article]
    The question was asked again in the latest conference call, the answer was a little bit more reassuring - they're confident they can restructure overhead so that they will be profitable on a GAAP basis within 2 or 3 quarters.
    May 14, 2014. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transformation Play; Value Micro Cap Near Its 10 Year Low [View article]
    John, interesting idea again. Have you found any information regarding the different segments of the company? They repeat that 'the Stanley brand is growing and profitable' but I can't find any numbers to back this up. There is no split out for profitability and if I look at revenue I don't see much growth:

    2011 - 56% of 104.6m = 58.6m
    2012 - 62% of 98.6m = 61.1m
    2013 - 60% of 96.9m = 58.1m

    It looks cheap indeed on an asset-basis but without any numbers I have to make a leap of faith to believe that the turnaround will solve all problems. All I could find was this quote in the conference call:

    John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: "And I assume that there's still a profitable adult business and a negative EBIT youth businesses. Is that correct, first of all? And then, what is -- is it strictly a matter of volume at this point for the youth business to get to at least breakeven or profit?"

    Glenn Charles Prillaman - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director: "Yes and yes. And the second one is absolutely yes.".

    Again, doesn't really sound convincing and no numbers at all.
    May 14, 2014. 06:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Gas International Holdings: 5.7% Gross Profit In 1.5 Months [View article]
    How does that imply a 91.2% chance of the deal going through? Forgive me if I'm asking something stupid but I don't see it.
    May 14, 2014. 04:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
42 Comments
28 Likes