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  • Last Hidden Gem: Nassau Reinsurance Group Holdings To Acquire The Phoenix Companies  [View article]
    Well, I usually really appreciate your posts Maudes but it is at the very least a bit strange if you write that a stock is an "unique opportunity" with which you can make "tons of dollars" and a "perfect deal" where we can "help you close the gap" (all your quotes) but you don't own it yourself.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL Offers +12% Arbitrage Opportunity  [View article]
    Back when the ETF traded close to NAV the creation fee wasn't in place yet ..
    Jan 28, 2016. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL Offers +12% Arbitrage Opportunity  [View article]
    Because it means that the fund can trade at a premium for years and there's nothing anyone can do about it, just as with CEF's.
    Jan 27, 2016. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL Offers +12% Arbitrage Opportunity  [View article]
    You are partially right. The fee is the whole reason it is trading at a premium. Apart from that fee disappearing there is no reason why this would trade at nav flat within a short timeframe.

    Barclays, the issuer of the ETN, even sent out a warning to investors: "Due to the current market dynamic in the sale by the issuer of ETNs from inventory, there are likely to be continued fluctuations in this premium if strong interest from exchange participants in purchasing the ETNs continues."

    ( http://tinyurl.com/hny... )

    As far as the chart is concerned: I'm not a big fan of technical analysis. Maybe you can determine from it where the premium is heading - I can't.
    Jan 27, 2016. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Hidden Opportunity: The Acquisition Of Campus Crest Communities, Inc.  [View article]
    According to the press release they expect the deal to close 'by the end of february'. Are we still expecting it to close this week?

    ( http://tinyurl.com/gsm... )
    Jan 27, 2016. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Advice In The Media General Bidding War  [View article]
    As expected, Meredith Corp. (NYSE:MDP) has agreed to terminate its agreement to be bought by Media General (NYSE:MEG), clearing the way for a definitive deal for Nexstar Broadcasting (NASDAQ:NXST) to buy Media General at a higher price.

    (http://seekingalpha.co...)
    Jan 27, 2016. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL Offers +12% Arbitrage Opportunity  [View article]
    This article is missing a lot of crucial information, to put it mildly.

    Barclays, the issuer, slapped a $0.50 / share creation fee on this product, meaning that it is essentially impossible for AP's to short the product and create it afterwards (which is the mechanism due to which ETF's and ETN's trade close to fair value).

    The mispricing has nothing to do with 'retail investors and oil volatility' and unless you have specific information that Barclays want to revise this policy the price will likely hover between NAV and NAV + 50 cent. I think it is unsubstantiated and misleading to state that this is an 'arbitrage opportunity'. There is nothing to arb here, which is exactly the reason of the mispricing in the first place.

    Not to mention that there is a non-zero risk of a huge short squeeze (as has just happened, which you didn't mention in your article) where you are forced to buy back your shares at a much higher premium and / or the borrow rate spikes up by a factor 100.

    Dubious idea, bad article.
    Jan 27, 2016. 06:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Media Reports Support Our Bull Case On UTStarcom  [View article]
    Before we question how he gets above 50% I'd first like to see him pay for the first 32%. Third amendment today, closing date again postponed. How is this guy supposed to drum up $150m to take the company private when paying $25m takes half a year longer than initially expected?

    I'm long because the payoff is skewed but consider me skeptical.
    Jan 19, 2016. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Advice In The Media General Bidding War  [View article]
    It is a stock-for-stock deal. Sure, there is a cash component but I wouldn't call that low risk. Just look at the volatility of all involved companies. You could try to mitigate that by shorting the other side but even then there's a small risk you are shorting the 'wrong' counterparty.

    If you want to feel safe at night you should probably stay in cash or buy Berkshire.
    Jan 17, 2016. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Best Idea For 2016: Buy Retail Holdings At An Effective Discount Of 60%  [View article]
    Nice article. A small remark: the stake in Singer Bangladesh should maybe discounted a bit as "pursuant to a permission letter by the Ministry of Industries in Bangladesh dated February 27, 1979, 20% of the total equity of Singer Bangladesh Limited is not eligible for remittance in foreign exchange either as dividend or capital." (I thought you knew this already).

    Questionable whether they can get all money out of the country and back to shareholders. Also I personally discount the notes a little bit more.

    The good thing is, both adjustments do not materially affect the thesis.
    Jan 15, 2016. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Advice In The Media General Bidding War  [View article]
    That said, I didn't know about this deal, thanks for a great post. I still kind of like the idea.
    Jan 14, 2016. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Advice In The Media General Bidding War  [View article]
    I don't mind receiving / owning an illiquid CVR, in fact I like them as they are potentially mispriced.

    What I mean is that I have no clue about the proceeds from the spectrum auctions. If $4.29 is the upper bound, what is the lower bound? What frequencies do they own and where? Are there any comparable spectrum transactions out there? Are there fixed costs involved in selling the spectrum (i.e. is the CVR leveraged)? Has management given any guidance?

    All I could find was that the best case scenario is $4.29 / CVR. It's hard to say anything sensible about the value of MEG given this statement only. If I value the CVR below $2 the stock doesn't look that attractive. And without more information I would be hard-pressed to value the CVR much higher.
    Jan 14, 2016. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Advice In The Media General Bidding War  [View article]
    From the latest CEO letter: "If the Meredith transaction is not approved by our shareholders at that meeting, we are permitted to terminate our agreement with Meredith and enter into a merger agreement with Nexstar. As of now, our Board continues to recommend the proposed transaction with Meredith.".

    Imho, it doesn't sound like the board is extremely committed to the MDP deal.

    Does anybody have some pointers towards valuing their spectrum assets? All I can find in SEC filings so far is that MEG mgmt expects the CVR to be worth "up to $4.29". Any comparable transactions? Kind of a big deal whether they are worth $1, $2 or $4. As of now, the CVR is a black box for me. If I value it conservatively the stock doesn't look that attractive.
    Jan 14, 2016. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hopewell Valley Merger Offers Attractive Return With Low Risk  [View article]
    Hopewell also used to pay out a quarterly dividend. They might do so again this year. Either way the IRR is still good.
    Jan 8, 2016. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Instead Of Buying Kansas City Life Insurance You Should Short It  [View article]
    You were trying to make an easy buck and got unlucky. If I were KCLI management I wouldn't want to pay out everybody who bought shares after the vote either. They chose a very aggressive record date to screw people over who were trying to screw them over. Stuff like that happens. Perfectly legitimate. No point in complaining, buyer beware.

    And especially IB is not to blame - they did what they were supposed to do. If other brokers allowed you to cash out you just got lucky.
    Dec 22, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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