hatarakiman's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/82920/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/159922-ten-year-treasury-note-a-terrible-investment?source=feed#comment-661821 661821 People do buy bonds and use it as collaterals. The Margin Maintenance Req of 5~10 year bonds is only 4% market value. You can earn 3.38% plus other derivative's gain.
Assuming you always buy 10 year notes at auction and hold it to maturity, spreading it out, it's like 10% each year for the 10 year notes. It's ok to put 10% in 2008 and another 10% in 2009...
But anyway, I prefer TIPS, it's inflation safe. But if you buy it from the secondary market, it's better to choose the market price that is less than the 100 principal value.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:07:32 -0400 People do buy bonds and use it as collaterals. The Margin Maintenance Req of 5~10 year bonds is only 4% market value. You can earn 3.38% plus other derivative's gain.
Assuming you always buy 10 year notes at auction and hold it to maturity, spreading it out, it's like 10% each year for the 10 year notes. It's ok to put 10% in 2008 and another 10% in 2009...
But anyway, I prefer TIPS, it's inflation safe. But if you buy it from the secondary market, it's better to choose the market price that is less than the 100 principal value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159667-etfs-yes-they-have-their-drawbacks-too?source=feed#comment-661787 661787 I sold a couple of calls (deep otm) on it.
No individual stocks, that's too risky for retirees.
Actually most people put money in CD after they "learned" some experience from the market crash. 2 to 3% higher return than CD will satisfy most people's investment goal. There are products like LIBOR plus 3% or LIBOR plus 5%. It's a good benchmark actually.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 10:51:33 -0400 I sold a couple of calls (deep otm) on it.
No individual stocks, that's too risky for retirees.
Actually most people put money in CD after they "learned" some experience from the market crash. 2 to 3% higher return than CD will satisfy most people's investment goal. There are products like LIBOR plus 3% or LIBOR plus 5%. It's a good benchmark actually.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159946-has-gold-finally-broken-out?source=feed#comment-661755 661755 So people just buy it and put it into the closet, but not really use it for any purpose... It's really a good sign.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 10:35:58 -0400 So people just buy it and put it into the closet, but not really use it for any purpose... It's really a good sign.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139505-china-is-now-in-firm-control-of-u-s-debt-markets?source=feed#comment-518783 518783
The treasury department issues debt to force spending(consumption). Fed sells debt to pull money out of the market. Those are two big machines controlling the flow of money.

If there is no capacity limitation on those machines, they can do what they want actually.

Unfortunately, California's machine is capped by its state law...]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 19:08:29 -0400
The treasury department issues debt to force spending(consumption). Fed sells debt to pull money out of the market. Those are two big machines controlling the flow of money.

If there is no capacity limitation on those machines, they can do what they want actually.

Unfortunately, California's machine is capped by its state law...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139505-china-is-now-in-firm-control-of-u-s-debt-markets?source=feed#comment-518769 518769
When China gets the US dollars, what are they going to do with the "money"? If China keeps it in cash, there would be no interests, so it's better to use the cash to buy treasuries that earn extra.

An outflow of US dollars is good actually, because US doesn't have to pay the interest on those money.

btw, money is like stocks. Issuing more money will definitely dilute its value, but it might not necessarily depreciate its exchange rate in the long run. Every country is printing more money, anyway.]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 18:52:11 -0400
When China gets the US dollars, what are they going to do with the "money"? If China keeps it in cash, there would be no interests, so it's better to use the cash to buy treasuries that earn extra.

An outflow of US dollars is good actually, because US doesn't have to pay the interest on those money.

btw, money is like stocks. Issuing more money will definitely dilute its value, but it might not necessarily depreciate its exchange rate in the long run. Every country is printing more money, anyway.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127614-how-do-you-buy-spot-oil?source=feed#comment-486556 486556 UOY is pegged to "February 2014 oil contract" as mentioned in your article. UOY is NOT pegged to "the front-month futures contract" as it mentioned by Macroshares.
It's like an option pegged to Feb 2014 future should be priced based on Feb 2014 future, not the front-month.... there is a low risk arbitrage opportunity if you want to try it.]]> Sat, 02 May 2009 10:17:33 -0400 UOY is pegged to "February 2014 oil contract" as mentioned in your article. UOY is NOT pegged to "the front-month futures contract" as it mentioned by Macroshares.
It's like an option pegged to Feb 2014 future should be priced based on Feb 2014 future, not the front-month.... there is a low risk arbitrage opportunity if you want to try it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133895-7-deadly-sins-of-income-investing?source=feed#comment-483614 483614
Technicals are like fortune-telling, predicting, forecasting. Most people are enjoying it, why not give it a try!


On Apr 29 11:35 PM dybydx wrote:

> why not just buy Vanguard Total Market Index (or ETF equivalent)
> and Total Bond Market Index. no need for hours of technicals and
> fundamentals.]]> Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:44:48 -0400
Technicals are like fortune-telling, predicting, forecasting. Most people are enjoying it, why not give it a try!


On Apr 29 11:35 PM dybydx wrote:

> why not just buy Vanguard Total Market Index (or ETF equivalent)
> and Total Bond Market Index. no need for hours of technicals and
> fundamentals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133895-7-deadly-sins-of-income-investing?source=feed#comment-483611 483611
Got to check what's the holdings and how Nuveen pays it!

About 63.8% is ROC -> Return of Capital!

so the actual yield is about 11.6%*36.2% = 4.2%

On Apr 29 11:18 PM glennf1 wrote:

> JGT - Nuveen Multi-Currency Short-Term Government Income is a good
> hedge for the dollar and is currently yielding ~ 11.6%. It's like
> having insurance that pays you instead of paying them!]]> Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:39:45 -0400
Got to check what's the holdings and how Nuveen pays it!

About 63.8% is ROC -> Return of Capital!

so the actual yield is about 11.6%*36.2% = 4.2%

On Apr 29 11:18 PM glennf1 wrote:

> JGT - Nuveen Multi-Currency Short-Term Government Income is a good
> hedge for the dollar and is currently yielding ~ 11.6%. It's like
> having insurance that pays you instead of paying them!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133182-why-jim-rogers-and-robert-shiller-aren-t-buying-u-s-stocks-yet?source=feed#comment-482244 482244
I doubt we can get stock investment advice from Mr. Rogers and Mr. Shiller. Regarding stocks, I prefer Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Burton Malkiel, and John Bogle.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:13:32 -0400
I doubt we can get stock investment advice from Mr. Rogers and Mr. Shiller. Regarding stocks, I prefer Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Burton Malkiel, and John Bogle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133211-swine-flu-why-you-can-ignore-the-hype?source=feed#comment-482108 482108
According to the records, 47 died in the SARS event in Taiwan. I don't really know how serious this is. But it shows the SARS can be contained.

I don't know how long this swine flu can last, but it should be able to be contained with the current technology.

Btw, our government just shows the tamiflu acquired in 2003 in its warehouse, and a special vehicle that's used to transport highly infectious people, that's also acquired in 2003.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:08:51 -0400
According to the records, 47 died in the SARS event in Taiwan. I don't really know how serious this is. But it shows the SARS can be contained.

I don't know how long this swine flu can last, but it should be able to be contained with the current technology.

Btw, our government just shows the tamiflu acquired in 2003 in its warehouse, and a special vehicle that's used to transport highly infectious people, that's also acquired in 2003.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133096-how-does-9000-gold-sound?source=feed#comment-480489 480489 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:08:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133423-gm-bondholders-no-good-answer?source=feed#comment-480248 480248 The weird thing is that GM goes up today even with this news.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:58:22 -0400 The weird thing is that GM goes up today even with this news.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133211-swine-flu-why-you-can-ignore-the-hype?source=feed#comment-479983 479983 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:22:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132180-will-hedge-fund-etfs-outperform-hedge-funds?source=feed#comment-476878 476878
1st. I am not sure if they use correlations to find the underlying components of the FoF. Predicting the future is not like predicting the history, so it takes time to see if it really works.

2nd. The major components are Bonds, Stocks, and Currencies. According to the Modern Portfolio Theory, the result of the portfolio would be inside the efficient frontier determined by those components. But the (risk,return) of the FoF is outside the efficient frontier determined by bonds and stocks from the past experience (am I right?). Let's see how it goes.
]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 08:44:58 -0400
1st. I am not sure if they use correlations to find the underlying components of the FoF. Predicting the future is not like predicting the history, so it takes time to see if it really works.

2nd. The major components are Bonds, Stocks, and Currencies. According to the Modern Portfolio Theory, the result of the portfolio would be inside the efficient frontier determined by those components. But the (risk,return) of the FoF is outside the efficient frontier determined by bonds and stocks from the past experience (am I right?). Let's see how it goes.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132954-california-housing-affordability-reaches-record-high?source=feed#comment-476611 476611 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:29:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132321-reserve-currency-talk-inequity-written-all-over-it?source=feed#comment-472481 472481 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 10:02:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131082-how-value-investors-use-volatility?source=feed#comment-464321 464321 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 19:29:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130639-sucker-s-rally-approaching-an-end?source=feed#comment-461367 461367 If you use unemployment data for trading, good luck to you. I take the nonfarm payroll data for some back testing on S&P500, I am kind of dissappointed. If you buy when the nonfarm payroll increases and sell when it decreases, the result is awesome, it's far worse than buy-and-hold.]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:17:10 -0400 If you use unemployment data for trading, good luck to you. I take the nonfarm payroll data for some back testing on S&P500, I am kind of dissappointed. If you buy when the nonfarm payroll increases and sell when it decreases, the result is awesome, it's far worse than buy-and-hold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130363-why-is-congress-reinstating-the-uptick-rule?source=feed#comment-461234 461234 The free market theory is more like a belief. Remember who is saying "greed is healthy". According to the free market thoery, there should be no rules against insider trading, stock manipulation, so as short selling. Because if you know the true price of the stocks (or the true value of the company), you should welcome short sellers, manipulators and insiders.]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 06:09:05 -0400 The free market theory is more like a belief. Remember who is saying "greed is healthy". According to the free market thoery, there should be no rules against insider trading, stock manipulation, so as short selling. Because if you know the true price of the stocks (or the true value of the company), you should welcome short sellers, manipulators and insiders.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130417-inflation-expectations-a-primer?source=feed#comment-461230 461230 From the big Mac index or CommSec iPod index, we know which area has inflation or deflation tendency compared to US.
So far I am not worried about the delation in Japan, I am more concerned about the inflation in China. The same in the housing market, you care more about the one who is going to bid on the house you want to buy.
According to the auto sales data in China, the oil price will not stay low for too long.
There are 7 trillions in the money market and saving account, and Fed is printing money by buying long term bond and Agency bonds. Once people are getting used to the great depression hoax, the consumers will restore their consumption behaviors. ]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 05:57:20 -0400 From the big Mac index or CommSec iPod index, we know which area has inflation or deflation tendency compared to US.
So far I am not worried about the delation in Japan, I am more concerned about the inflation in China. The same in the housing market, you care more about the one who is going to bid on the house you want to buy.
According to the auto sales data in China, the oil price will not stay low for too long.
There are 7 trillions in the money market and saving account, and Fed is printing money by buying long term bond and Agency bonds. Once people are getting used to the great depression hoax, the consumers will restore their consumption behaviors. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130618-five-experts-agree-tips-etfs-are-key?source=feed#comment-461224 461224 What I have done is using the TIPSs as my basic holdings instead of TBills, and use it as the collateral to do other options trades. So the real return will be [ TIPS coupons + equity gain/loss ].]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 05:25:13 -0400 What I have done is using the TIPSs as my basic holdings instead of TBills, and use it as the collateral to do other options trades. So the real return will be [ TIPS coupons + equity gain/loss ].]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129304-pros-and-cons-of-muni-bond-etfs?source=feed#comment-452167 452167 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 08:52:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99524-irrational-stupidity?source=feed#comment-280464 280464 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 10:36:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69141-housing-us-vs-japan?source=feed#comment-129115 129115
There is a site giving that information.

www.housingtracker.net...]]> Wed, 19 Mar 2008 23:49:51 -0400
There is a site giving that information.

www.housingtracker.net...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68974-why-is-bear-stearns-trading-at-5?source=feed#comment-128258 128258
Maybe JPM is buying from the market now and trying to control the votes.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 12:03:20 -0400
Maybe JPM is buying from the market now and trying to control the votes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69061-how-important-is-jp-morgan-s-option-to-buy-bear-stock?source=feed#comment-128242 128242
JPM, BSC, and Fed all know this deal probably will never happen at the begining. It just gives confidence.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 11:45:53 -0400
JPM, BSC, and Fed all know this deal probably will never happen at the begining. It just gives confidence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66725-gold-and-the-dollar-value-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder?source=feed#comment-122298 122298 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 07:33:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66853-buffett-the-impossible-expectations-of-stock-performance?source=feed#comment-122295 122295 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 07:25:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54298-buffett-don-t-repeal-the-estate-tax?source=feed#comment-102099 102099 No matter those, who inherit huge wealth, a) waste money or b) invest money. Both are good to economy. Giving the money to the Government "directly" might not be the best way to the economy.
No matter how, the Government will get the money from sales tax, luxury tax, capital gain tax, income tax... Government has thousands of ways to get the money back from the flow of the money system.]]> Fri, 16 Nov 2007 08:09:48 -0500 No matter those, who inherit huge wealth, a) waste money or b) invest money. Both are good to economy. Giving the money to the Government "directly" might not be the best way to the economy.
No matter how, the Government will get the money from sales tax, luxury tax, capital gain tax, income tax... Government has thousands of ways to get the money back from the flow of the money system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54326-dow-theory-predicts-trouble-ahead-for-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-102097 102097 Fri, 16 Nov 2007 07:54:50 -0500