canb888

Is China the Next Great Bubble?

"But a great portion of our growth came from borrowing Chinese money to buy Chinese goods " I did not know the US government was buying any Chinese goods. I am not aware of the Chinese Government lending to US consumers either. So, show us how Chinese buying US Treasuries could increase US consumers buying more of imported of Chinese goods directly. It looks like strange logic to me.

Confusion with China's Solar Subsidy

Look at other points:
1. Eric quoted someone saying:"the 20 RMB/watt subsidy program is specifically for BIPV installations ...". The official policy says: "Priority will be given to building-integrated PV applications", nowhere can I find "specifically for BIPV...". "Priority" became "specifically" to suit the author's opinion. "Specifically" is close to "only" that he used in my earlier comment. Eric already has his conclusion before looking at the documents/facts.

2. Eric quoted again someone saying: "the program is focused on off-grid installations"
while the Official Policy says: "Priority will be given to grid-connected building PV applications"

If Eric used the same logic as in the BIPV I pointed out earlier, he should be saying "only" support grid-connected.. applications". Instead he is quoting exactly the opposite.

How more biased can someone be?

Confusion with China's Solar Subsidy

This is how the facts are twisted by Eric the China Solar basher:
Ministry of Finance said: "Priority will be given to building-integrated PV applications"
This writer selectively quoted someone who said:
"the program only covered what are known as “building integrated photovoltaic panels,” or BIPVs". Note the huge difference in the words "Priority" vs. "Only".

Question: Who do we trust, the Chinese Ministry of Finance who set the policy or someone who does not read Chinese and change the spirit of the new "interim measure" on solar incentives in China? Need I say more? Solars are moving up in a big way, don't fight the trend.

How the World Almost Came to an End on September 18, 2008

First, the world will not end just because the US dollar collapse. Second, all the money withdrawn from Money Market accounts need to find a home, in bank accounts, treasuries, gold, stocks or somewhere but not a single dollar will evaporate (almost like Newton's theory in physics). So why panic? Paulson et al may have some hidden agenda to rob more from American tax payers. Even that will not end the world - again, think of Newton's theory.

Has Nortel Become a Takeover Target?

Interesting to revisit this article and all the comments especially that NT is officially broke now, only a few months later. The nightmare came true, 94% drop in 2008, another 90% drop in just a few weeks in 2009. This came faster than my speculation of "lose 95% again in one year". That's a result of keeping the Management and the Board. Should have fired them all and replaced them with my cleaning lady, she may have achieved a slightly better than 90% loss by surrendering to a buyer. And for those nationalistic thinking, there was nothing left about NT being a Canadian long time ago.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

Thanks for disclosing, much appreciated.


On Jan 12 06:50 PM Ucilia Wang wrote:

> I have no position on LDK, canb888.

Chinese Government Offers Incentive for Solar Mergers

Gosh! Promoting rumour is not going to give you any credibility Ucilia. Digitime did not quote any source maybe because they have none, in which case this is just a rumour. I hope you think big and be creative, and not just follow others. This is from an older guy who has "been there done that". Think BIG for your own good. Be creative to be someone. Disclosure: I own many solars including all those named here except KWT.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

I know Ucilia is reading these comments. I hope she is open to my question: are you short LDK?

Salary Trends in China Present New Business Opportunities

Good article. I must add that benefits could also add to the compensation costs significantly. Beijing and the first tier cities have much higher benefit costs for medical, unemployment insurance, housing funds, etc. For example, Jinan have lower percentage of salary for medical insurance premium cost while Beijing's premium rate is 33% higher than Jinan on a higher base and higher ceiling. Unless your company needs to contact the central government frequently, there is not much point of being in Beijing. The benefits of being in Shanghai may not be justifiable either.

Average annual salary for a city means very little because they are pulled down by small private enterprises and some borderline companies who pay very low. Our average in Beijing for local staff is USD33k per person per year (including bonus) for an office staff of 35 of which our lowest paid receptionist costs about USD10k per year (including benefits and bonus). I know we are not the highest paying foreign company here. The city average is almost irrelevant for foreign companies, only good as an indicator.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

By the way, Zacks disclosed having no position on LDK at the end of the fairly positive article. I can't find any position disclosure by Ucilia in her fairly negative article. My question to Ucilia: are you short LDK??? I hope she will answer because I don't think my qustion is not fair.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

Exact same news story but different attitude towards LDK thus different conclusion, link: seekingalpha.com/artic...

LDK Solar: When Bad News Is Good

Most encouraging is "... by the end of the day, LDK was actually trading higher! Investors were able to shrug off the bad news"... A buy signal based on my past experience.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

No problem with your revised wording by adding in "THAN PREVIOUSLY GUIDED". Being a long, I am mad at them too for missing their Novemebr guidance just like you but I expect commentators to be honest in their choice of words - because it is very important. Maybe some people do it unconsciously - some analysts/writers are unconsciously incompetent - the lowest form and the real hopeless form of incompetence. I believe LDK, being the largest and lowest-cost producer of wafers, will recover and will be a winner in the long run.

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

Wafer shipment in 2009 will be higher than 2008. How did that become "lower this year". People compare year to year. This year is 2009. Compare that to last year which is 2008. Still think "lower this year"?

LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan

Your statement that: "LDK expects ... lower wafer shipment this year." is clearly false but it also clearly shows your sentiment against the company, i.e., you are very biased as a reporter/comentator. I really prefer to read objective, independent and preofessional comments.