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Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

Eowyn, you try to hijack Seeking Alpha, which is mainly a blog for investment ideas, and make it into a political battlefield. Instead of getting into your trap and debating the politics, I just want to assure you that if we want to discuss political issues, we know where to go. Copy-pasting other people's article which are mostly unrelated to the topic will not help this blog. You would be welcome to try to discuss investment ideas here. Try to write something more of your own and don't worry about spelling, we never do on blogs. TIA.

Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

I have read this article many times and have forwarded it to more than 30 good and serious investor friends. Thank you agian.

Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

Mr. Jefferson, I give you a five-star! This is one of the best articles, correction, this is the best article on investment in China I have read. As an expat working and living in China for the past 20 years, I have seen the changes and can related to the many key points mentioned in the article. I also tend to agree strongly on those points relating to the direction of the economy, again, based on my experience even though the past cannot directly predict the future, they tend to show the direction. Coincidentally, many of the stocks you recommended are already in my porfolio. I strongly recommend anyone interested in investing in China to read this article.

The Great Bubble of China: Next to Pop?

nick, do you mean the dalai lama to become president of china? he will need the christian almighty to help because his holiness is not going to make it on his own. If not, any candidate you can suggest? LOL.

The Great Bubble of China: Next to Pop?

About bubble. Yes the Chinese stock market index went up from about 800 to 6200 with only minor corrections of less than 10% during the big move over two years and it has come down to about 2700 now during the past few months. However, one needs to know that the components making 800 is completely different from the ones making the 6200. For example, using rough numbers from memory to illustrate my point, when the index was 800, today's giants like Petro China (the largests market value company in the world when the index was 6200), ICBC (by far the largest bank in the world) , Chinalife (the largest life insurance company in China), etc., were not even listed. Yet at their height, Petro China and ICBC were each said to have been about 20% of the index. Note, while they maybe 20% of the index each, only a small number of their shares, at one point I read it was 5% of Petro China, was floated representing about 1% of the market while the company itself was 20% of the index. I am not knowledgeable enough to talk about the bubble because when I think of those numbers, just like China's thousands of years of history most of which were prosperous and the 1,300 million population most of whom are well fed and very free, happy and fairly rich now, I am just humbled, really humbled. I remember, when I was much younger, fascinated by the stock quote screen at my brokers place during lunch hour watching the DOW trying to conquer the great 1000 mark. Some people were calling it a peak. Look back at the DOW at 1000 and compare that to Chinese index being 2700 today. I can think of how the world would be like in another 20 years. If you want to talk about China, you first have to think BIG, really BIG. Watch the Olympics, it's going to be BIG. Since I was not able to buy any tickets, I bought a suite and invited my friends just to witness the Bird's Nest. It's going to be once in a lifetime experience. Go China.

The Great Bubble of China: Next to Pop?

You may be a Chinese decendant but your knowledge of China is quite limited based on this article. You think USA will benefit from the China bubble bursting. That could be far from the truth. Currently, economists estimate that the US consumers benefit by over $70 Billion per year due to cheap Chinese products. Who is going to replace that? Do you think the jobs will go back to USA if the China bubble burst? BTW, I would just point out another reason I think your knowledge of China is limited. You said "For a brief blip in history, China had the largest economy on the earth. " Other scholars claim that for most of the past 3000 years except the most recent 200 to 300 years, China was the largest economy on earth. That does not sound like a brief blip. Just because house prices have trippled in 5 years does not mean it will drop significantly, say even by 50%, soon. You have to know what base it trippled from and what money is available in the savings accounts to pay for them. You would be surprised to know how much cash low income earning Chinese have in the banks. National savings rate is 40% for the past dozens of years. That helps fund the growth. That is not what western economists understand easily. There are too many other Chinese things that cannot be explained by the common sense of the west. While there will be adjustments and slowdown, the great growth machine is far from being a bubble yet. One day, it may become one and your article may look great. But you would have to wait for many years before that day. I may not even see that day as I am rather old and do not expect to live that long. Having lived and worked in China for 20 years, I expect the standard of living for the average Chinese people to continue to improve for at least another few dozen years. BTW, you should have said something about air polution which I would have agreed with. I have been complaining about the air for 20 years. But the economy, it is going to be fine. Polution cleanup actually will also help the economy, this factor alone will delay your bubble bursting by at least 5 years. What is 5 years, or 50 years in China's history. That's a real blip. Being the largest economy for most of the past 3000 years is not a blip.