canb888

Expect Continued Drops in Solar

Intentional or unintentional, you did not mention that LDK beat the street concensus for Q3 (EPS of 71 cents concensus vs. 77 cents actual on US GAAP basis) and they also guided higher for Q4 as well as 2009! Even annualizing 77 cents, LDK is less than a PE of 5 for a company that is growing at several hundred percentages p.a. and almost everyone agree/know that its going to grow even more in dollar sales once the two polysi plants are in production, i.e., 2009. Is it politically wrong for Wall Street to say anything good about solar these days? If not, why is no one saying anything good about LDK's achievement and their guidance? Now I see clearly the market is not efficient regardless of the Nobel Prize that went for the theory.

First Solar and Solarfun May Defy Short-Term Weakness in Solar Sector

You say: "China's exports will be largely wiped out if overseas demand diminishes in the coming years". I don't think you know what you are talking about if you are serious about that statement. Where would Walmart source their products if China stops exporting? How many countries have you been to lately and did you notice how pervasive Made in China products are even in Asia/Africa? Who will replace those products that provide the best price/value ratios? Wiping out China's export is not easily achievable even if you wish and pray for it to happen. Slowdown from recent double digit growth yes, but that will still be growth of say 7% +/-, not a reduction of GDP, not a wipe out. BTW, it is obvious that China will dominate production of PV solar products, nothing would likely stop that from happenning. The best advice would be finding the winners among the Chinese solar names and invest in them rather than bashing them with all types of excuses and analogies.

About the stimulus package, it is new investment that will have a huge multiplier effect on the economy. This is in contrast to the US bailout - which does not add too much new investment but use billions to correct past errors. Bailout barely create any growth if at all. New investment does. Thats' a world of difference when looking at the multi-billion dollar US bailout vs China's $580B stimulus plan. Final note: one dollar buys much more in China than in the US, not only when it comes to labor hours but also on other productive factors. Therefore, the $580B in China will definitely have a much larger impact than the same dollars in the US. You can't always measure things in terms of what it means in the USA. Think international.

When Will Grid Parity Come?

alpha's comment is pathetic, it is almost saying today's solars are hopeless, let's wait for the new technology which may happen in five to ten years. I bet that is what he is doing with his own dollars - avoid or even short the silicon-based solar companies. Instead, I would argue that we need actions today just like what the article already said very well. The actual social cost of fosil fuel generated electricity is much higher than what we pay in cash, therefore, grid parity is already here in many places from a macro point of view. Petty politicians cannot see macro impact. Solar will continue to grow regardless of people like alpha or the big oil or the petty politicians because there are more people like Al Gore and progressive forces on this earth we call home that can think in macro terms. Jack, keep up with the good work and continue to contribute for the green cause. I enjoy many of your articles.