canb888

Confusion with China's Solar Subsidy

Look at other points:
1. Eric quoted someone saying:"the 20 RMB/watt subsidy program is specifically for BIPV installations ...". The official policy says: "Priority will be given to building-integrated PV applications", nowhere can I find "specifically for BIPV...". "Priority" became "specifically" to suit the author's opinion. "Specifically" is close to "only" that he used in my earlier comment. Eric already has his conclusion before looking at the documents/facts.

2. Eric quoted again someone saying: "the program is focused on off-grid installations"
while the Official Policy says: "Priority will be given to grid-connected building PV applications"

If Eric used the same logic as in the BIPV I pointed out earlier, he should be saying "only" support grid-connected.. applications". Instead he is quoting exactly the opposite.

How more biased can someone be?

Confusion with China's Solar Subsidy

This is how the facts are twisted by Eric the China Solar basher:
Ministry of Finance said: "Priority will be given to building-integrated PV applications"
This writer selectively quoted someone who said:
"the program only covered what are known as “building integrated photovoltaic panels,” or BIPVs". Note the huge difference in the words "Priority" vs. "Only".

Question: Who do we trust, the Chinese Ministry of Finance who set the policy or someone who does not read Chinese and change the spirit of the new "interim measure" on solar incentives in China? Need I say more? Solars are moving up in a big way, don't fight the trend.

Chinese Government Offers Incentive for Solar Mergers

Gosh! Promoting rumour is not going to give you any credibility Ucilia. Digitime did not quote any source maybe because they have none, in which case this is just a rumour. I hope you think big and be creative, and not just follow others. This is from an older guy who has "been there done that". Think BIG for your own good. Be creative to be someone. Disclosure: I own many solars including all those named here except KWT.

China Solar Companies Slowing Production

Eric, I asked you whether you verified the claims you are quoting. Today YGE specifically released a PR to answer my question to you. Here is what they say: biz.yahoo.com/prnews/0...

Here is what CBS MarketWatch say: LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Yingli Green Energy (YGE:yingli green energy hldg co adr
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 3.86-0.02-0.52%

4:02pm 12/04/2008

YGE 3.86, -0.02, -0.5%) said it reiterating its 2009 outlook, saying it was responding to erroneous news articles saying that photovoltaic module shipments would reach 400 megawatts next year. Yingli Green Energy is estimating between 550 and 600 megawatts of PV module shipments. That's subject to a planned ramp-up during the third quarter. Gross margins will be at least 24%.
Looks like you were one of those spreading the "erroneous news articles saying that photovoltaic module shipments would reach 400 megawatts next year." What else can one expect from Barron's?

Expect Continued Drops in Solar

Intentional or unintentional, you did not mention that LDK beat the street concensus for Q3 (EPS of 71 cents concensus vs. 77 cents actual on US GAAP basis) and they also guided higher for Q4 as well as 2009! Even annualizing 77 cents, LDK is less than a PE of 5 for a company that is growing at several hundred percentages p.a. and almost everyone agree/know that its going to grow even more in dollar sales once the two polysi plants are in production, i.e., 2009. Is it politically wrong for Wall Street to say anything good about solar these days? If not, why is no one saying anything good about LDK's achievement and their guidance? Now I see clearly the market is not efficient regardless of the Nobel Prize that went for the theory.

Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution

You said a lot about "The losses have been staggering..." they are all related to the share prices only not operating losses. You did say nothing about the fact that most of these Chinese solar companies are making lots of profits (not losses). How would their share price fall to zero if they continue to make lots of profits? It looks like you have some problems in your logic. And, by the way, I would love to buy tons of them if they come close to zero.

China Solar Companies Slowing Production

You say: "Yingli (YGE): Postponed or canceled planned expansion from 400 MW to 600 MW. "

YGE said about one month ago:
— Company Confirms Cash Flow Sufficient for Current Capacity Expansion Plans and Working Capital
— Company Confirms No Further Capacity Expansion Plan beyond Its Current Capacity Expansion Plans

BAODING, China, October 8, 2008 - Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited (NYSE: YGE) ("Yingli Green Energy" or "the Company"), one of the world's leading vertically integrated photovoltaic ("PV") product manufacturers, today confirmed that it believes its current cash and expected cash flow from operations and committed available lines of credit will be sufficient to meet its currently anticipated cash needs for the remainder of 2008 and for fiscal year 2009, including cash needs for working capital and capital expenditures for the remaining phases of its current capacity expansion plans.

The Company confirms that at September 30, 2008, the Company's cash and cash equivalent totaled approximately RMB 883 million (US$130 million) and that the Company also had approximately RMB 3,723 million (US$548 million) in authorized lines of credit, of which RMB 2,614 million (US$385 million) were drawn down to date. The remaining RMB 1,109 million (US$163 million) in available lines of credit can be used if and when needed. In addition, the Company has also received a letter of intent from a PRC domestic bank relating to a potential line of credit of RMB 500 million (US$74 million).

As previously announced, the Company recently completed installation of an additional 200 MW of annual manufacturing capacity in each of PV polysilicon ingots and wafers, PV cells and PV modules bringing the Company's total annual manufacturing capacity to 400 MW for each stage of the PV value chain. As part of the current capacity expansion plans, the Company also plans to install an additional 200 MW of manufacturing capacity in each of PV polysilicon ingots and wafers, PV cells and PV modules, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter 2009. The Company confirms that it believes its current cash and expected cash flow from operations and committed available lines of credit will be sufficient to cover its capital expenditures to reach its anticipated total manufacturing capacity of 600 MW in 2009 while maintaining adequate working capital to support its operations. In this regard, the Company confirms it has no plans to conduct fund-raising from the capital markets to support this expansion and currently has no plans for further manufacturing capacity expansion beyond 600 MW while it focuses on maximizing utilization of existing capacity and further improving the cost structure of its production. "

They clearly said they are expanding to 600MW and have currently no plan to go beyong 600MW. Why should we believe you more than the company's statement just one month ago.

Eric, did you talk to YGE????? I guess you did not!!!!!! Pls respond and prove me wrong.

China Solar Companies Slowing Production

Eric, I wonder if you checked the validity of the claims made or are you just quoting a report thinking any potential liability for misleading investors would be pushed back to the author of the original paper?

First Solar and Solarfun May Defy Short-Term Weakness in Solar Sector

You say: "China's exports will be largely wiped out if overseas demand diminishes in the coming years". I don't think you know what you are talking about if you are serious about that statement. Where would Walmart source their products if China stops exporting? How many countries have you been to lately and did you notice how pervasive Made in China products are even in Asia/Africa? Who will replace those products that provide the best price/value ratios? Wiping out China's export is not easily achievable even if you wish and pray for it to happen. Slowdown from recent double digit growth yes, but that will still be growth of say 7% +/-, not a reduction of GDP, not a wipe out. BTW, it is obvious that China will dominate production of PV solar products, nothing would likely stop that from happenning. The best advice would be finding the winners among the Chinese solar names and invest in them rather than bashing them with all types of excuses and analogies.

About the stimulus package, it is new investment that will have a huge multiplier effect on the economy. This is in contrast to the US bailout - which does not add too much new investment but use billions to correct past errors. Bailout barely create any growth if at all. New investment does. Thats' a world of difference when looking at the multi-billion dollar US bailout vs China's $580B stimulus plan. Final note: one dollar buys much more in China than in the US, not only when it comes to labor hours but also on other productive factors. Therefore, the $580B in China will definitely have a much larger impact than the same dollars in the US. You can't always measure things in terms of what it means in the USA. Think international.

Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

Eowyn, you try to hijack Seeking Alpha, which is mainly a blog for investment ideas, and make it into a political battlefield. Instead of getting into your trap and debating the politics, I just want to assure you that if we want to discuss political issues, we know where to go. Copy-pasting other people's article which are mostly unrelated to the topic will not help this blog. You would be welcome to try to discuss investment ideas here. Try to write something more of your own and don't worry about spelling, we never do on blogs. TIA.

Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

I have read this article many times and have forwarded it to more than 30 good and serious investor friends. Thank you agian.

Can China Carry the Post-Olympic Torch?

Mr. Jefferson, I give you a five-star! This is one of the best articles, correction, this is the best article on investment in China I have read. As an expat working and living in China for the past 20 years, I have seen the changes and can related to the many key points mentioned in the article. I also tend to agree strongly on those points relating to the direction of the economy, again, based on my experience even though the past cannot directly predict the future, they tend to show the direction. Coincidentally, many of the stocks you recommended are already in my porfolio. I strongly recommend anyone interested in investing in China to read this article.

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

The problem with GS is the same as the problem they claim of the solar companies, i.e., "They need to continue to make money in order to repay their debts. It's that simple."

Who can say that is not also true for GS. If GS stop making money, how can they repay their debt? Based on that, should we all start to short GS? It's becoming ridiculous.

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

Did not realize you sold out on LDK which you had written some very good articles before. Also noted you wrote about talking to Jesse who was shorting LDK at the time you were promoting it. Did Jesse convince you that LDK is no longer what you said it was?