NeilEzell

S&P Returns Since 1927 Are Important

Rich, thanks for the serious reply. I'll use all the in formation you supplied. It's nice for a change to get a responce that doesn't critisise my lack of writing skill and spelling mistakes.

Let's Get Ready to Rebound

Tom, what's new about record gains this year. They've became meaninless. As you pointed out July 16 was the previous record, 13.1 % up. And then what did the following months show? Amazing swings up and down seem the norm now. I agree though "be mentally prepared" for when we reach a REAL bottom. Please contact me when we reach that point LOL. No offence Tom, your just doing your job. Much better than many than most are writing.

S&P Returns Since 1927 Are Important

Good information and comments from everyone. Not as much trash talk about other comments as the other forums I look at. Everyone seems very informed. Unfortunately some of us (me) are a total novice. As a young retiree that has decided to eventually break away from financial planners, mutual funds, etc., where do we start? The question might seem broad and vague, hopefully the gist of the question is understandable. Thank you.

23 Stocks to Consider During Global Deleveraging

Alan, I'm amazed at the hind-sight wizzards that gloat over the mistakes you've made. I would enjoy seeing the preditions of the market they made 6 months ago or even a month ago. I think on a scale of 1 to 10 your beating the average economic guru by over 11 points.

Consumer Categories: Long Pasta, Short Soda

Now that we're all nervous watching the economy tank I think most of us will stop smoking and drinking cokes, were hooked on both. NOT! And I don't want an inexpensive breakfast like eggs. I think I can afford expensive seafood though. A dozen eggs can feed a family of 4 breakfast for under $2, try to feed 4 people seafood for that. Get real! Credit where it's due though. Beer will do good in any economic situation. Celebrate the good news, drown your sorrows in bad times. Where do these writers come from? No offence Paul, who has made a good call this year?

Another Bloodbath?

What amazes me is "even" I was able to see all this coming. Refer to a comment I posted long ago. I went to total cash June 7 2007. Yes I missed the top and many in-out oportunities since I went cash, but I sure as heck missed the bottom as a buy and hold invester. My point is I'm not an economic or investing wizzard. Why didn't the Wall Street "brains" see this coming?

Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher

I totally agree. I believe in free speech. Having said that, these blogs become meaningless when there is no control of content.

The Fed and the Banking System

I'm not the dumbest duck on the pond. Honestly though I can't understand exactly what all this means. Can someone futher explain it???

Things Aren't as Bad as They Seem - Barron's

One thing is certain. There is no shortage of totally opposite opinions. After reading all the current articles available to me I've came to two conclusions. The economy isn't so bad, it's time to buy equities at very low prices. Or, we're in for the worst times ever. Sell anything and everything held. Where are valid opinions that concur? Who is recomemding trully safe places to park our savings. Gold maybe? Look at the situation of the early 80's and see the dramatic rise and fall of gold and silver. We appear to be in similar times now.

So is Our Market Timing Off, or Not?

Well said Brian. I happen to be a Christian but not what I would call a nutty one. In fact many people at my own church consider me a lost soul because I do not hate the "evil Moslems" or people of other faiths, or no religious faith at all. If I recall the Bible correctly Jesus tried to teach us that. When he ask us to love our brother I don't think there were any disclaimers attached that ruled out anyone. So we just worship , stay silent, go home and try our best to live as He ask. Looking for other churches has proved to useless, there all pretty much the same unfortunately. On the subject of money and or call it value, the real Jesus that appears to be forgotten by today's church didn't have high regard for it at all. He had nothing against the wealthy, but He didn't consider a persons assets as a measure of their worth. I think that's a lesson we could all put to good use regardless of our spiritual thoughts. Having said that, we still have to meet the basic minimum fixed cost of life, food, clothing, shelter, etc., now and in the future. How to do that is the big question most of us face.

You obviously have given great thought and study to historical economics. I can't see a flaw in anything you have written. I have never been a true conspiracy theorist, but it does appear that more than in anytime in history there is a conspiracy to create a world with two classes, the very wealthy and multitudes of poor people, or what you call slaves. We appear to have learned little from the infamous "tulip bubble", 1929 market crash or the more recent dot com bust. Even a simple mind like mine though can clearly see that no money or things of monetary value was thrown in a fire. It just changed hands, and overwhelmingly the exchange benefited the wealthy, reduced much of the middle class and devastated the poor. Our government supported corporate world is structured the same now as then, only worse. The wealthy will emerge even wealthier when the dust settles after a big down turn, middle class reduced again and the poverty level class will grow in number. In the unlikely event of no large pull back in the market, the rich will benefit with their investments while a large majority will take a further step back due to not being invested, it takes all they have just to survive. Either way the wealthy win and the middle class and poor lose. I'm not a communist but there has to be a better way of wealth distribution, or as you might call it more survival value for the majority and fewer benefits for those that can lose a fortune and still have more than they could ever need or use. Even our middle class are tricked into contributing to the problem by greed and the pursuit to possess more than they need. Eventually most of them will pay a heavy price.

I'm not bright enough to offer a solution the powers that be would allow. But I long for and dream of a life my Grandparents lived in the deep country of Alabama. They had very little of what we call valuables, but through hard work on their small farms they never went hungry, had adequate clothing, shelter. Waste was a sin, frugality was an enjoyable hobby. Did not envy rich people and were thankful for what they had. Although they lacked in formal education I was taught a particularly valuable lesson. They considered the lack of money as a state of finances, and poor was just a state of mind. They never felt poor even though they had very little money and shared what they had with people less fortunate. Their priorities were very commendable, and they were happy. In real terms they were extremely rich.

So is Our Market Timing Off, or Not?

John, if it makes you feel any better I would be really surprised if your timing has been worse than mine. Having lived through the dot com era I panicked and dumped all my non tax deferred funds june 7. My stradegy this year seems to be one I invented, "sell low and buy high". I'm not an astute investor as you seem to be, no idea what leveraged indexing means. I'm just a simple mutual fund buyer. Unfortunately at age 54 I can't work due to custody of an 11 year old autistic son and the only child of elderly parents in very bad health. Luckily no dedt, own a modest home free and clear and a reasonable nest egg from my former fast food restaurants I was forced to sell. But whats reasonable these days with expectations of rising inflation at my age? I can't afford to set on the side lines and can't risk investing and taking a large hit. Hell of a spot to be in. Any suggestions given the limited information I mentioned other than move to third world country where 1 million $ still looks impresive?

Best of luck to you and hopefully me too. Neil

To Stay Invested, Or Not?

Great article Larry. Nothing I haven't read before but a reminder of the basics is often needed, especially by me. I'm one dumb but somewhat lucky investor in the past. Circumstances of an investor are vital for proper risk assessment, diversification, time horizon, etc., so here's mine. Age 54, only child, retired in 1999 due to ailing parents and full custody of 11 year old autistic son. Former restaurant owner, reasonable nest egg just over 1 mil. No debts, own nice but modest home free of mortgage, high property taxes. I know that's just a portion of the information needed to formulate a good investment plan. I lived through 2000, /01 and /02. I panicked on June 7 last week, acted like a fool and liquidated all non retirement investments (good performing mutual funds) other than insured investments (i.e. low interest CD's). I guess a sell low, buy high strategy is the alternative I have now. I feel like an idiot, but stress and financial security can drive a man to do stupid things. I have had poor results with educated fools called financial planners in the past. Actually they weren't too foolish, they made plenty of money from me. Given the limited information above, any suggestions that you are allowed by law to make? Get back in the market now or wait? Either way, thanks for this and other good articles.

Selloff: Taking a Step Back

I agree Paul. 2006 proved the bears wrong. YTD 2007 proved the bears wrong. Can they always be wrong, I doubt it. Everyone wants on a speedy get rich quick TRAIN, the last few years have shown that eqities are the only way to go. The best of locamotives eventually get bogged down with too many people on board. Risk management has been thrown off the trian. Could be a very good time to set on the sidelines for a while.

Gold Price: $666 Per Ounce and Rising?

Gold and other precious metals are harder to predict than the stock market. They totally have a mind of their own. The word GOLD still still grabs the imagination. For Christians the streets in Heaven will be paved with gold. The word has even been the source of many familiar expressinons sill used. "Stike it rich." "Worth it's wieght in Gold.", and many others. In the real world today it's lost some of it's prestige. Tak about NASDAQ taking a long time to regain it's all time high, at $850 (non-inflation indexed) per ounce January 1980, NASDAQ looks like a winner given the time frame and inflation. True, it's hard to to argue with thousands of years of GOLD being the magic word. But the world has changed more in the past 100 years, probabaly just 50 years, than the rest of history combined. As an investment precious metals are likely to underperform practically every other sector in the reasonably short future and tremendously so long term.

Greenspan's Telling It Like It Is

Enough of Greenspan! He's in the private sector now but still riding on his larels as Fed-Chief. Bernanke is well qualified and doing a good job. Every time Greenspan speaks, unfortunately he's still heard as the Fed Chairman, not an employee of Pimco. Mr. Greenspan, with all due respect please let Mr. Bernanke do his job and good luck at Pimco.