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JustALittleGuy123

JustALittleGuy123
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  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    --Correction?

    The website reports Product by Quantity allows a 1-year time span, while Intelligence Lists are for 3 Months.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    28775055,

    That is exactly what the Intelligence Lists are about. Best time to buy one is when you have capital you are looking to commit, and can withstand waiting as much as 3 months calendar time before you might need to re-allocate it. Typical holding times are 40-50 Market days.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    A shame editorial approval to publishing turnaround time takes so long... Those without direct access to blockdesk may have missed a good part of this opportunity already.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    I must respectfully point out that in Peter's approach the TP is set at the very moment at which the position is taken. You clearly don't understand what Peter's TERMD strategy is yet. If you don't understand it, you are in no position to refute it.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    Yes, 2013 is summarized here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The 2014 summary isn't out yet, it's still 2014. Peter will likely publish that just after the 1st of the new year.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    Peter's results described above are based on incorporating EVERY item offered in his published lists.

    This equates to a B&H mentality and level of sophistication applied to his TERMD strategy. It isn't a stretch to imagine that with some applied critical thinking by use of some BTFs or his other Mapping Tools, one can identify a good percentage of the ones in the list that are less likely to be winners and by avoiding them, significantly improve on the numbers he states.

    He is being modest, because it's hard enough to accept the notion that actually, with the right information in hand, the notion of timing the market has now become a far more realistic prospect. The difficulty of doing just that stems from seeing value clearly, and defining a viable exit strategy.

    Both are available in his tools and TERMD.
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    mrTB,

    When you say "recommended hold time", are you referring to Peter's time limit of 63 days, or Column 10 of the Intelligence List, the average number of Days Held?
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Read The Blockdesk BTF  [View instapost]
    MP,

    Sorry for such a slow reply.

    Each investor has their own specific needs and comfort level with regard to risk. Doing exactly what I do might not be best to suit your needs, and/or might lead to heartburn.

    That aside, the general notion of spreading risk among multiple positions is common, and Peter also suggests spreading positions across time, as well.

    The amount of capital deployed per position would ideally be a small percentage of your total capital, especially if you can keep it under 5% so that no single position "feels" like as much is at risk. As one person described it, "It's a lot like running MY OWN mini-ETF."

    My personal familiarity with Peter's information over a longer time span helps me "know it when I see it" when I look at a BTF. But anyone willing to take a little time getting to know and understand what the BTF has to offer will also recognize it, too.

    Given the fact that freshness of the information is advantageous, making use of it on the next market day would be ideal; yet if one has the luxury of following a given prospect live during the next market day, it may be possible to watch the price settle even lower before taking the position. But that's a question of how much time one can spend at maintaining their portfolio. It's a matter of personal style that again, only you can arrive at what works for you.

    My opinion of the value of the information has little weight; you would do best to watch/review Peter's publicly shared Lists and see for yourself. It shouldn't take too long to formulate your own conclusion.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC - Whistling Past The Graveyard [View article]
    Yes, Peter has summarized his information's performance in a previous article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 14, 2014. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are ETFs With The Biggest Price Upside Potential, From Market-Maker Forecasts, The Best? [View article]
    nathan,

    As I understand it, Peter has elected to rank the list based on his figure of merit, an equal factoring of the Odds-weighted Risk vs. Reward Ratio of Column 15.

    In recent discussions we've had on this topic while visiting with me last month (October 2014), we agreed that there was room for an improvement, and I will leave it to him to elaborate if he wishes to do so.

    Because each investor has their own personal comfort level with regard to risk, or perhaps is driven by a given level of need for gains, one might create an alternative formula that incorporates these values in a way that more closely suits their preferences. Your inclination to consider sample size minimum is a good example of how you might evolve a customized figure of merit of your own that works best for your needs.

    Wishing you continued success investing,

    -JALG123
    Nov 5, 2014. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are ETFs With The Biggest Price Upside Potential, From Market-Maker Forecasts, The Best? [View article]
    sibarnes,

    In one sense, it would be fair to say the article is aimed at buy and hold investors, but I suspect it might not be what you are thinking. Peter's system includes a disciplinary rule that unilaterally closes any remaining position taken after 63 Market Days have elapsed, but more likely, the Sell Target Price was reached in less than that time span, and the position was already closed out for its gain. In the above list, the anticipated average days held is less than 50 Market days. Would you describe such a time frame as Buy and Hold? Perhaps a day trader might...

    I would propose the article is indeed aimed at buy and hold investors who are realizing they could do a LOT better than just holding onto Annual Returns in the low teens at best, and that with a little more active participation, making triple or more than that ROR for their effort. And it is likely aimed at anyone else who is open to a new perspective on the current realities of what is attainable.

    Peter has written over 200 very detailed articles on a lot of complex subjects and frequently invokes his unique perspective of Market-Maker expectations as a tangent to the subject, so you might want to grab a BIG pot of coffee or whatever helps you stay awake, and read a little of what he's been saying for over 2 years now. He's made a lot of predictions in real time, and with a steadily growing number of over 3000 followers, it isn't a fluke or flash in the pan.

    Normal is only what happens with regularity, and MM expectations may become the NEW normal. MM expectations also shift with the market's shifts, and may indeed indicate that there are better places to put money than most ETF's someday. But that is exactly why I'm following very carefully what the MM's are saying NOW.
    Nov 1, 2014. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast For SPY Different From Forecast For S&P 500 Index? [View article]
    Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but isn't he saying there are much better places to put money than SPY?
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    Widglo,

    I would guess the reason the selected range is so narrow is that it is intended to make sense of where AAPL is *right now*. Is it overvalued, undervalued, should I take a position/get out?

    If we are trying to know *right now* what's going on in order to make a decision, we need to know as much useful information as possible that helps us to make a well-informed choice. MM forecasts are useful for that.

    Knowing how well things played out after ALL experiences would help clarify how accurately the MM forecasts as a whole have been. That IS also useful information as well. In the case of AAPL, brand loyalty and "momentum" can make AAPL defy conventional price behavior.

    -JALG123
    Sep 22, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    mp,

    Peter's methodology isn't the norm --YET. His discipline includes a time limit of 63 Market Days for any position. Your assertion is correct in its absolute, but in relation to the content of this article, far less so.

    Peter is suggesting that knowing in advance that a position may swing further down by a given percentage helps us endure the pucker factor and allow the position to reach its rebound target, often in the 10+% gain in just 3 calendar months. How easily can you sit still with a 4.4% drawdown, and for how long? Just knowing that you'll get out in 63 market days no matter what puts a certain frame of perspective on a position, doesn't it?
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    In Glenn's defense, if MM forecasts repeatedly signal "buy" for months on end, it supports the view of the person holding that issue that it is indeed a good long-term position.

    But does AAPL's track record on blockdesk confirm that? Answer: No. A 2-year BTF will show that the split-adjusted historical price of AAPL in Late Sept. 2012 took a "cycle" dipping to the mid-50's in Apr. 2013, and eventually heading North again a few weeks later in Jun-July. It took all the way to July 2014 to recover its original price level, over a year.

    This is a part of why Peter suggests a time-efficient discipline of 63 market days is useful. Re-allocating the capital into something more profitable in the Fall of 2012 would have the double benefit of avoiding the stress of the downswing, and simultaneously generating better annualized returns.

    -JALG123
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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