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JustALittleGuy123

JustALittleGuy123
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  • Keurig Green Mountain Market Response Today Vs. MM Forecasts [View article]
    pasquale,

    I suspect the MARKETING of a 1-serving delivery system that can be programmed to to start itself early the next morning with a VERY well-brewed hot drink of MANY sorts, not just coffee, is likely a factor in their success. I think it's more about the delivery system and its features as much as the coffee/tea/hot cider/hot cocoa itself.

    -JALG123
    Aug 25 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Read The Blockdesk BTF  [View instapost]
    drnova99,

    Glad to be of help. I have been familiar with Peter's analysis for a long time. Good luck in your investing.

    -JALG123
    Aug 20 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Fear Index' Vs. The 'Greed Index [View article]
    commonsense,

    Peter has been posting articles for well over a year, and during that time he has outlined a suggested practice of limiting the time a position is held to not more than 63 Market Days, which is about 3 calendar months.

    Article: http://bit.ly/1aJ1mC6

    This time limit stems from the forecasts made by Market Makers which he has learned to discern from their behavior in hedging actions. A forecast made on a given day has about 63 Market Days at the outer limit before the forecast loses its viability. It is calculated using his own proprietary analysis method, and is described in more detail at http://www.blockdesk.com

    Peter's Risk Discipline is to select a position with a favorable forecast, which has a specific price target that the issue should attain before the 63 days. The Discipline would ideally find the price reaching the target before the time limit. If not, the position is closed unilaterally, and the money is put to work on something with better forecast prospects.

    During the 2013 calendar year, he demonstrated in real time with SA readers following along with this strategy a series of gains totaling about 43% AROR.

    This is precisely why he chose to run the process in real time with followers, because it is a hitherto unthinkable level of sustained performance. The exercise did include a number of losing positions among them, but the overall outcome speaks for itself. Details of each and every position in that exercise are available in one of his articles.

    -JALG123
    Aug 6 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook By Market-Making Pros, Aggregating 2500+ Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    Regular readers of Peter's articles please take notice: many have asked Peter about how his information would be useful during a market correction. This is part of that answer. For those who can see "the shape of things" by observing the shape of the market profile, it may be intuitively obvious.

    But in case you aren't a "visual thinker", here are the words I would use:

    1. The Market Profile should have a bell-shape, and its statistical center (the AVG RI) should not be heavily skewed toward one end when the market is reasonably healthy. The first image, of Fri 7-25-2014, shows healthy optimism without being extreme with the AVG RI still above 30. RI Values are present across the entire spectrum, showing a balance between opportunities for a long position and issues which are overdone.

    2. While the second image conveys a relative degree of health and stability, there is a subtle harbinger of the impending downturn: a nearly complete absence of RI values in the -15 to +5 segment, and thus no counterbalance to the counterpart of the range, +95 to +115.

    3. The last image captures the desperation of the hopeful still in disbelief. I saw a similarly disturbed profile issued by Peter back in October 1987. The interesting report we also got was, "They've lost Put/Call parity."

    -JALG123
    Jul 26 08:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries [View article]
    JerryI,

    Please keep in mind that 90-day periods would only occur if the price doesn't reach the Sell Target first. In some instances, that may only take a month or so for some of the more tasty results.

    good investing,

    -JALG123
    Jul 24 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Best Wealth-Building Choice From Today's Top Market-Maker Price Range Forecasts [View article]
    artaraxl,

    The data is from market close of July 18th. IF JY's comments were prior to that, the screen was done after.

    -JALG123
    Jul 22 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Tunnel Light Ahead Is A Bear Train... [View article]
    Amit,

    In the second R:R map, UVXY is showing the largest Volatility. It also has a completely neutral Range Index of 50. Equal upside vs. downside.

    Items in that same map with greatest downside risk are 17, 27 and 21.

    The fact that everything has migrated toward the upper left suggests that there is now more downside risk for that collection of ETFs. Only items 9 and 12 show some upside.

    --JALG
    Jul 8 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Tunnel Light Ahead Is A Bear Train... [View article]
    RJL,

    Peter's discipline has always been to wait until either 63 market days elapse, or close out if the Sell Target ($$$) was reached, whatever comes first-- NO exceptions. That is the RULE. It is meant to keep the emotions in check.

    In his practice of sharing articles and Intelligence Lists, the reality has worked out that because the target was profitably reached (sometimes in a very short turnaround), his average holding period has been closer to 45 days. Perhaps that has affected your view of how that rule was meant to apply.

    It is certainly to your credit that you employ every means of due diligence available, and that is a good example to set for everyone. Many would benefit from that example, because as Peter has said more than a few times, even the MM's won't always get it right. Many readers would see fewer losses by doing such exploration, and it's good to know that such a clear and critical thinker finds value in blockdesk's tools.

    Regards,
    JALG123
    Jul 6 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interested In A 100%+ Annual Rate Of Gain 7 Times Out Of 8, With Worst-Case Risk At -10%? [View article]
    Just my interpretation here:

    For the benefit of Xpan and Star, the first graph is meant to show how much swinging repeatedly occurs with MIDU. The second illustration clearly demonstrates an ability to correctly identify very effective entry and exit points for position-taking and closeout; the third is very compelling statistical evidence that the second grasphic isn't just a "lucky coincidence."

    Good luck in your investing,
    -JALG123
    Jul 2 11:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries [View article]
    I recall Peter saying that the collective average holding time for all of 2013's actions was 45 days.

    If you deviate from a set of rules given, doesn't that pretty much undermine the attempt to verify how useful the rules might be? Why would you close a position if neither the Sell Target nor Time Limit were reached yet if your goal is to verify the rules are useful?
    Jun 23 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy ETFs Contemplate Iraq, Extraction's Shift To Horizontal [View article]
    Since the start of 2013, peter has been sharing just such Market-Maker forecasts with everyone here on SA, and a summary of his results that would equate to your backtest are here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Keep in mind, each one of those forecasts was shared in real-time-- just take a look at his article history for yourself.

    Peter's method of calculating the MM forecasts is proprietary, and you can learn more about them here: http://bit.ly/1dgiX8t

    -JALG123
    Jun 17 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF: An Offensive Defense Buy In This Weak Market [View article]
    Alan, according to the market-maker's predictions, one might be late to the party to get into XBI at this time. They were repeatedly signaling "BUY" on it from April up into May, and stopped waving the flag on it nearly 2 weeks ago. On 5-8-14, their perspective on the $120 issue was 15% upside gain, to sell at 139. Today it has already drifted up to 136, in just 26 market days.

    Today, the market makers are saying the upside potential is only 7.1%, and there's a decent prospect of reaching today's forecast sell target of 146, but it's nowhere near the ROI of the prior opportunity.
    Jun 6 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Rally Saturation Nearing; Warning By Leveraged Long ETFs [View article]
    Morphic,

    It is not surprising that someone stumbling onto this article as their first experience of sampling Peter's information would react as you have, because there's a LOT of density in the article, and maybe the unique jargon isn't all clear in your mind.

    I've posted a "how-to" to help newcomers to this perspective get oriented to what the BTF means, and how to evaluate it: http://bit.ly/1p2oqou

    Perhaps after you get more acquainted with the terrain, it might have more value to you. Hopefully it becomes profitable for you, as well. Good luck in your investing!

    -JALG
    Jun 2 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries [View article]
    Peter's guideline has always been to hold the position until 1 of 2 things: Price target is met, or 63 market days, whichever comes first.

    Your personal needs may require stop-loss actions, but all of Peter's actuarial data is based on the guideline above.
    May 23 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries [View article]
    Jerry,

    You should be able to post an image to your instablog page. With Peter's data based on May 14 info, the ideal time to act would have been May 15th. Acting on this info as of May 20 might cloud the facts. As A.L. said above, let's see what happens over the full 3 months with these vs. S&P.
    May 20 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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