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Martin Schwoerer

Martin Schwoerer
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  • Momentum And Rebalancing Of Retirement Income Portfolios [View article]
    Varan, thank you for this strategy which looks quite brilliant!

    Just to get you right: you are also advocating a decision based on trailing 3 month total return?

    In other words: every two months, check the performance of your investment according to trailing 3 month total return, and then decide on whether VTSMX, FDVLX, FRESX, VUSTX or VBMFX. Then sleep for two months, and then repeat. Right?
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum And Rebalancing Of Retirement Income Portfolios [View article]
    This looks really great, but please elucidate:

    "Two funds, 50% each, rebalanced monthly": OK.

    "Either fund is out if it falls below its 6 months SMA": the other fund goes to 100%, or do you then go to 50% cash? And to 100% cash if both funds are below their 6-mo-SMA?
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum And Rebalancing Of Retirement Income Portfolios [View article]
    Excellent article!

    Subtracting the stated sums for withdrawal and inflation make the financial assumption very realistic. However, it makes these strategies more difficult to compare to others where you just have the basic results, those being CAGR and maximum drawdown.

    I wonder how the basics of CAGR and max-DD would look like for the strategies described in this article? Has anyone done the math?
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Greece Sink The Eurozone? [View article]
    Excellent article!, but the German right-wing party is called Alternative für Deutschland, abbreviated AfD.
    Jan 2, 2015. 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Problems That Will Keep The Markets On Edge In 2015 [View article]
    Very interesting and useful article, thank you!

    However, what the author calls "problems" are sometimes merely indicators or phenomena that have little causal connection to a possible upcoming crash. For example, Warren Buffett's cash level or the Baltic dry shipping index may or may not have predictive value, or may just be connected to various states of the economic cycle, just as skirt lengths are -- but you wouldn't publish an article on how long-length skirts are a problem that will keep the markets on edge.

    And if a simple table of debt-per-person in various countries had a strong predictive value -- why, then it would have been extremely profitable to short the Japanese and Belgian markets since around 2005 or so.

    In short: if the title of the article was "7 Indicators that Will Keep the Markets on Edge", then I'd agree with it 100%.
    Jan 2, 2015. 06:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Ends In U.S. But Resumes Elsewhere [View article]
    Good article, but "Germany has significant influence and they are terrified of inflation given the hyper-inflation they suffered after both world wars", is not quite accurate: hyper-inflation only happened after the first World War.

    But anyway, IMHO: not Germany per se is afraid of hyper-inflation; it is more like the powers-that-be. German homeowners, for example, profited as mortgages were devalued. (Guess who never wants that to happen again). And Germans in the know realize that austerity can be highly dangerous too, as Chanceller Heinrich Brünung's deflationary austerity policies (till 1932) paved the way to Hitler.
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Boring Utilities Can Generate Exciting Returns [View article]
    Excellent design, lucid explanation (as always) -- thank you, Kurtis!

    In comparison to the "Defensive Utilities" portfolio that you designed for Portfoliocafe, it looks more aggressive and profitable, but has a considerably larger drawdown. However, the time spans are not comparable, so I guess it's hard to say (1999-2014 vs 2008-2014).

    Will you be selling this portfolio at Portfolio123?

    I wish I knew somebody who could fit these parameters to European utilities. Investing locally (being as I am based in Europe) would sure help reduce my currency risk exposure.
    Dec 3, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Verdict Is In - A Swiss Miss [View article]
    I recommend Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's recent analysis of the situation. To paraphrase, gold has no industrial use, and it is expensive and filthy to mine. He didn't go so far as some do, and say that gold's 6000-year-old bubble was coming to an end, but he did imply that to trust in gold was mostly psychological.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Verdict Is In - A Swiss Miss [View article]
    Swiss news have been reporting that of the three million Swiss Francs spent for the pro-Gold campaign, about two million came from foreign sources. The assumption being that gold bugs invested the money hoping to make wonderful profits upon a successful vote. Sure looks pretty heavy-handed and smacks of desperation.
    Dec 1, 2014. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diabetes: The Global Epidemic Pushing Novo Nordisk Higher [View article]
    NVO has always been a great stock, and this article explains why, and very well indeed.

    However, before I buy a good company's stock, I always ask two questions: is the price good? And if the company's fortune should turn, when should I bail out?

    I think technicals help answer both questions. I don't like stocks that are getting ahead of themselves, unless they are small-cap mo-mo plays. NVO right now is only slightly above its 300-day moving average, and therefore doesn't look too pricey.

    And when to sell? I'd only bail out if NVO traded a good bit below its 300-day moving average for at least two weeks. If it did that, I'd take it as a sign that either the company is broken or the market is getting depressive -- both being good times to bail out for safety's sake.
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Remains The Most Misunderstood Company In Tech [View article]
    Great article, as so often!

    It seems Mr Market doesn't yet know what to make of TWTR. So it could happen that the stock goes up and down, as it has in the past, according to how it is perceived in the moment.

    I think I'll try to catch an uptrend by buying Twitter as soon as it gets above its 50-day MA. That way, I'll have a chance to board the train if it finally gets out of the station.
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Quant Make A Fruit Salad [View article]
    Just like Henry Rollins says, "Knowledge without mileage equals bullshxt".
    Nov 14, 2014. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Signal For Gold [View article]
    Excellent call, thank you!
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Amazing How Well Dumb Things Work II [View article]
    Ilya: I'd be very interested, too.

    Augustus: very good point, especially so if this was 1999. However I think nowadays, the average investor does not need to be reminded of the danger of large drawdowns. On the other hand, the average investor is greedy and might throw the towel after a single year of 2013ish performance.

    Luckily, we are not average investors, if I may make that assumption.
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ideas For An Ultra-Low Volatility Index Part IV [View article]
    Excellent strategy. Thank you!

    And this trade-off,
    "underperformance during massive up periods for the stock market, and major outperformance during challenging periods for equity markets",

    is just what I like when it translates into a better CAGR.

    Anybody who can think about it shouldn't want +30% in the first year if it means you're getting -20% in the second. Better, in fact, to get a constant 3% both years, as lousy as that sounds.
    Oct 30, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment