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Martin Schwoerer

Martin Schwoerer
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  • Dollar Cost Averaging The Nasdaq's Wild Ride Since '99 [View article]
    Excellent point you are making! DCA basically means you can do no wrong (unless, I suppose, you are investing in an index that mirrors no dividends and is sinking perpetually -- say, the Zimbabwe stock exchange).

    I wonder what would have happened with a little less bad luck. Say, our investor had begun in January 2002 or July 2004.

    I wonder what would have happened if the chosen index was permanently out of juice. Say, the Nikkei.
    Mar 9 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Alpha In Discarded 'Dividend Growth' Stocks [View article]
    I think the last chart is missing?

    Otherwise, this is once again an excellent article. Of particular value to me: how concentrating on overbought, liquid large-caps can kill your performance.
    Jan 15 06:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Large And Liquid Stocks Lower Risk? [View article]
    Hey, you're back Kurtis -- that's great!
    Jan 9 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celesio: An Undervalued Drug Wholesaler That Could Double in Price [View article]
    Depending on one's entry price: not bad, or even -- beautiful!
    Oct 25 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Basics On Fibonacci Ratios & Elliott Wave Theory [View instapost]
    Excellent introduction -- thank you, TF!
    Oct 2 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regime Shifts = Volatility [View article]
    SA author Kurtis Hemmerling has written how you can use volatility as a market-timing metric.

    High volatility is typical for a bull market, while in bear markets, stock prices sink synchronously. So, I wouldn't worry too much about volatility as such.

    As they say, the market needs to climb a wall of worry.
    Jul 22 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Trends, It's Only For Winners [View instapost]
    Always a good read -- thank you, Timer Frank!
    Jun 17 03:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nikkei Slaughter Is Your Wake Up Call [View article]
    Not only was it incorrect: the widespread breakouts since then make a case for a quite different market.

    If the author had said, in effect, "OK, I was wrong back then, but here are the reasons why I am probably right today" he'd have gained some credibility. But as it is, he looks like a broken clock. (I.e., he'll be correct once a cycle).

    Scores of people in 1994-1998 said the market was due for a crash. They were all right, but only in the long run. I however am not interested in being right -- I just want to make money.
    May 24 03:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields From 3-11%: Intro To International Investing For Individual Investors [View article]
    You might then want to, if the SA editors let you, change the text right before the chart to

    "following chart uses data that is readily available from public sources to compare Germany, the UK and France and demonstrate some important conclusions for investors",

    because I was all confused too.
    May 23 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nikkei Slaughter Is Your Wake Up Call [View article]
    Given a choice, I prefer my Cassandras to not be anonymous
    May 23 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Need More Income? Consider This Merger Arbitrage Play [View article]
    The article says the deal will close no later than June 30, but probably earlier.
    May 23 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Beyond Their Ken? [View article]
    I agree with Retogenes -- Spain's problem is a matter of re-attaining competitive advantage in numerous fields where the country is not really that far behind. So the comparison to Argentina of 60 years ago is not really that compelling.

    And when you look at Japan and Spain: well, I have to add that Spain is the best place in the world, and that millions of Europeans would live there if they could, and that Spain is basically a country that welcomes immigrants. The demographic problem is not as crucial as it is in, say, eastern Germany or in Siberia.
    May 4 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May Is Regime Dependant [View instapost]
    Exactly. During the summer, the market likes to capitulate, but it doesn't necessarily like to change its trend.

    So the data supports the qualification: Sell in May and don't return till November -- when you're in a bear market.
    May 3 02:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks Making 52 Week Lows, Only 1 To Buy [View article]
    Well, there we go: ABX at $18.36 right now, and starting to look like a buy to me. I like crazy markets.
    Apr 17 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Free Financial Stuff Can I Give You? [View instapost]
    By all means, market timing indicators!
    Apr 1 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
145 Comments
135 Likes