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Martin Schwoerer

Martin Schwoerer
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  • Herbalife: Have You Picked A Side? [View article]
    Martingale strategies may work better in the stock market than on the Roulette table for two reasons.

    First, there is no bank rule prohibiting you from doubling down in perpetuity. Secondly, the stock market tends to go up in the long term, which gives you an edge -- while the odds of betting on the red chip are never better than 50%.

    However -- and this is a big however -- all this only applies to bull markets. I assume Doug has been successful with this strategy since around April 2009. I wonder how bankrupt he'd be if he'd invested this way from 2000-2003, or 2007-2008.

    And as we all know, you only see a bull or bear in the rear-view mirror, so be prepared to be wiped out when this current bull ends.
    Jan 30 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Update - Profitability Is Back, But Future Still In Doubt [View article]
    I think it matters less whether the Street was expecting more. What's really important is the Street's reaction to the news. And going up 16% is not exactly a "meh" reaction.

    Talk is cheap; watch the action.
    Jan 10 11:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good Enough Is Good Enough [View article]
    PCs are "good enough"?
    Check. In fact, they sometimes were better in the past than they are now. The slimline iMacs are being tested as somewhat inferior in performance to older ones.

    Smartphones are almost "good enough"?
    No way Jose. Nokia's Pureview indicates that incredible improvements in photography, audio and video recording are on the horizon. Battery life of most current phones is poor. Displays will get a lot better, and a lot bigger. Storage will be upped to terabytes. I see considerable improvements for at least five replacement cycles.
    Dec 14 06:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Seeking Alpha Contrary Indicator, Or Bulls Bellow Loudest Before A Fall [View article]
    This is an interesting observation; I wish there was some kind of content rating system with which one could test it.

    I think there is an exception to this rule, though. The Nokia fans were quite loud at the bottom, a few weeks ago. I'm glad to be long NOK, as it has gone up by about 70% since then.
    Dec 9 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brandtastic Portfolio Cleans Up Against The Market [View article]
    This is a great strategy: intuitive, simple, low-cost, pretty reliable outperformance. Thank you!
    Dec 5 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Dodges Another Bullet (Not The Catalan Election) [View article]
    This is the kind of content for which I would gladly pay. Thanks!
    Nov 28 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For A Santa Claus Rally [View article]
    Well, if the macro picture changes considerably -- say, if there is a putsch against Boehner -- then this is moot. But until then, this looks like a fantastic new market timing model. Thanks!

    How about longer time frames? How did the VIX/VXV look in 2007/2008?
    Nov 21 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coffee Is Not Tea, But Starbucks Buys Teavana Anyway [View article]
    I agree: the only important question is what Schultz may have up his sleeve. Because all the rest, the mystique and technique associated with coffee-making, is absent in the case of tea.

    Anybody can make a good pot of tea. All you need is the leaves, good water, and some way to make the water boil. In contrast, not even the average smart adult can be a good coffee barista.

    I'd say the key factor is the quality of the tea leaves, which gives a disintermediating merchant more potential than Starbucks.

    A German professor of entrepreneurship made exactly this assumption: procure best-quality organic darjeeling directly from producers, sell in bulk at best prices to discerning folks. And presto, what started as an academic experiment for his students turned into one of the world's largest and most profitable tea merchants.

    Teekampagne.de makes a lot of money, pays producers well in a reliable fashion, and has happy customers. What's Starbuck's angle gonna be?
    Nov 16 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    Mr. J, to paraphrase a epochal dialogue involving Karl Rove, is this investment advice you give as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is this real?

    Stocks went up during Obama 1. Historically, both the economy and the stock market are healthier under Democratic presidents. Historically, deficits go down under Democratic presidents. You sound like you are losing the cool head, the empirical outlook, that an investor needs.
    Nov 8 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risk Of 'Buy And Hold Forever' Investing [View article]
    "I was not able to find any ten stocks to own forever articles from 2000 "

    I think James Altucher published a "Forever Portfolio" at the Street.com around the year 2000. As I remember it, it was long some very sensible things such as silver, but also some rather -- typically for James -- oddball stuff.
    Oct 26 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The WinTel Era [View article]
    What I don't get is how they still call it Windows, even though they are abandoning the windows metaphor. They should call it "Tiles", and this new system should be named "Tiles 1.0".

    Since we all know that MSFT only gets their software right by the third generation, then we'd realize that we need to wait until "Tiles 3.0".

    Oh, and now that they are doing Surface, Microsoft is no longer just a software company, so they should rename themselves, too. How does this sound to you? "BigHard introduces Tiles 1.0". Sure works for me.
    Oct 21 04:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Apple's iPhone? [View article]
    "We'll make it up on volume": Crazy Eddy agrees with this.

    "We'll make it up on cache": Yes, cash is king. Oh, you mean cachet?
    Oct 21 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Ten History [View instapost]
    Excellent results, Arne -- congratulations! Another three years of this and you'll be in the upper echelons of stock pickers.
    Oct 13 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Dodges A Bullet? [View article]
    I agree,

    and I would add that aging populations do not cause strife per se. The countries with the highest level of conflict are those that have a disproportionate amount of 16-28 year old males.

    Having and old population is a problem if you have unfinanced pension liabilities. In most countries, the problem is "easy" to solve if you move the pension entitlement age from 65 up to 70, 72 or 74 years.
    Oct 9 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why European Stocks Look Attractive At Current Levels [View article]
    ABB currently yields 4.38%
    (Source: goyax.de)
    Oct 5 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
145 Comments
135 Likes