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Martin Schwoerer

Martin Schwoerer
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  • Believe In The Cult Of Equity [View article]
    Not to forget the best and zoological variant, "we don't need no stinkin' badgers!"
    Aug 8, 2012. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Nokia's Comeback Be Tied To The New Lumia, With Possible Release Next Month? [View article]
    The risk-reward balance of investing in a company that has fear of bankruptcy priced in can be good, if you only invest a little money. Also, you need to protect your investment with trailing stops.

    The thing about Nokia is that they have some technology that is creates a unique selling proposition. The 808 Pureview (which I now own) is an example, with

    41 megapixel photography (best camera of all phones),
    rich recording (best sound when you record videos),
    free maps (no annoying and expensive data costs when you're travelling in a foreign country)...

    If they can bundle this stuff into a WP8 phone in early 2013, then I see a winner.
    Aug 8, 2012. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This August Rally Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    Stocks are certainly overbought right now. I'd wait at least a week before buying anything again. And trimming some of the fat sounds like good advice, too.

    There is a game-changer that needs to be factored in, however. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Euro-hater, Cassandra-caller and permabear for longer than I can remember, says as of this week that the Euro crisis is under control. When guys like that start getting positive, then you can assume the market has legs.
    Aug 8, 2012. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions Trading At A Discount To Fair Value [View article]
    This is a well-researched and highly interesting article. Thank you, Greg!

    The implications are intriguing. On the one hand, dividend champs that have a relatively low yield often tend to be companies that have gotten somewhat expensive. A bit ahead of themselves, so to speak.

    But the article says these four are actually undervalued. So the conclusion might be: these are constant-growers that have accelerated their growth in recent years, without increasing their payout correspondingly.

    So, one could either hope for accelerating dividend growth, or for an advancing stock price. Could my conclusion be correct?
    Aug 8, 2012. 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Nokia: A Picture's Worth $2 Per Share [View article]
    So, they didn't build the 888, and they won't build it.

    And you like the 103 because it is dirt cheap. But let me tell you: Amazon in Europe, for instance, has been offering dirt-cheap Nokias for years, and that certainly hasn't helped NOK's price. When my main phone was away for repairs in 2010, I bought a €26 Nokia model that worked wonderfully: you could phone for days, enjoying fantastic sound quality, before the battery had to be charged. But is that investible information?

    The Pureview 808 sounds magnificent -- a real class-leader in what it does -- so if you were going to buy the stock, that might be a reason. But the two models you are showing in this article, imho, are not.
    Aug 7, 2012. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
    This is a very valuable analysis and I will be joining the shorts in due time.

    However, the picture is not complete until you look at the technicals: the trend Amazon is in.

    Don't short a stock that is trending upward. That is rule one. Rule two, based on Keynes and on 1995-1999: the market can be irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

    I myself expect a double top around $240 to happen before AMZN breaks down. Alternatively, I'll short it when it gets into death cross territory, or when it breaks its 10-month SMA.
    Aug 3, 2012. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Did You Really Expect From The ECB? [View article]
    Yes, many hedgies will get whipsawed.

    Likewise, the mo-mos are getting whipsawed too.

    I myself have modified my strategy: less mo-mo, more slo-mo. This is a trendless market so I am investing in some downtrodden companies that have been reliable dividend growers. A reliable yield of over 4% is nothing to sneeze at in such times. The premise being, of course, that Europe will muddle through and strong companies will continue to adapt. Hell to pay if this proves wrong.
    Aug 3, 2012. 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
    Yes, but for the moment, neither a reasonable argument nor pictures will convince those who own Amazon. Perhaps telling the story using hand puppets would work.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, Spain, Part 1 [View article]
    I don't think it is worthy of being read again and again.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Overpay Now, Will I Regret It Later? [View instapost]
    There's a big question in this excellent instablog, and a little one as well. First, are your rules too rigid? Rules applied to emotions and to relationships should not be so rigid. You love a painting, you would get incalculable satisfaction from seeing it every day for years, so you should buy it. A house is also an emotional thing but too many people in the last decade or so have fallen in love with a house, subsequently getting an experience, albeit not the one they had hoped for.

    For financial investments, rules should be a lot tighter. Will you attain great emotional satisfaction from owning a particular stock? I think the more heathy attitude is satisfaction in seeing a yearly total return of 5%, 6% or 8%. Anybody who feels happy because he owns a piece of something should perhaps start with a hobby, or buy a dog.

    The bigger question is: how to deal with regrets? Which of course is connected to the even bigger question: how to live properly? But I have blathered enough here already.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, Portugal (Part 1) [View article]
    These are really first-class articles! I wish there were more authors at SA who do this kind of timely and thorough analysis. Surely, there are buying opportunities in Greece, or Ireland, but one doesn't hear enough about them.

    That said, I am disinclined to purchase Portuguese stocks as Portugal has a high withholding tax on dividends that is notoriously difficult to get refunded. (The same applies to Italy and Norway). It sounds like a counter-productive public policy to me.
    Aug 1, 2012. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Perspectives On The 'French Lion In The Grass' [View article]
    Valuediv, I agree with you 100% -- with the caveat that America is still the place to go to if you are brilliant and want to make lots of money.

    But to illustrate your points, some personal information. I live in a lovely (quiet and roomy) apartment in the walkable center of Frankfurt, Germany, for €550 rent per month. Comprehensive health insurance costs me another €400. My daughter is studying at university in Edinburgh, where tuition is free, just as it is in most places in Europe. I have a car, but for most business purposes I take a super quick and convenient train which can zip me to Paris in three hours; a ticket costs €60, if I buy early enough. I just took a vacation in beautiful Sardinia; flying to this place of coral beaches and delicious wine via Ryanair (a super-efficient Irish operator) cost me less than €100.

    My point being: purchasing power is one nice thing, but providing efficient infrastructure and public goods for all is another. The proof of the pudding is in the balance, if you'll pardon my mixed metaphor.
    Jul 30, 2012. 04:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Perspectives On The 'French Lion In The Grass' [View article]
    Very interesting article. Paris will bite the bullet when they need to, no earlier and no later. If it is later, it will be a big and bitter bullet.

    But one question remains: how high is the internal level of debt? In other words, how much of France's debt is owned by the French?

    As I understand it, the market considers Japan's sky-high level of debt to be less than crucial because most of it is owned by Japanese savers. In other words, the Japanese are highly in hock to themselves - not exactly a scary scenerio. Et tu, France?
    Jul 29, 2012. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Seasonality Suggests A Buying Opportunity By July's End [View article]
    This is a highly interesting strategy for those of us who just can't stop investing in Nokia. Since I belong to this unhappy group, I'll probably try it out.

    Beware however a strategy that says you need a ten-year horizon, when the company you are talking about may well not be around in even five year's time.
    Jul 26, 2012. 06:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Is More Important Than Yield (Don't Be A Yield Vigilante) [View article]
    As good as this article is, my experience with strawberries is that they will multiply and grow for several years if you weed your strawberry patch often enough.

    Which is my way of saying: buying/planting isn't enough, no matter whether you intend to reap fruit or dividends. What you need to do is buy and monitor. Nothing is secure under the sun.
    Jul 20, 2012. 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment