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Martin Schwoerer

Martin Schwoerer
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  • What Did You Really Expect From The ECB? [View article]
    Yes, many hedgies will get whipsawed.

    Likewise, the mo-mos are getting whipsawed too.

    I myself have modified my strategy: less mo-mo, more slo-mo. This is a trendless market so I am investing in some downtrodden companies that have been reliable dividend growers. A reliable yield of over 4% is nothing to sneeze at in such times. The premise being, of course, that Europe will muddle through and strong companies will continue to adapt. Hell to pay if this proves wrong.
    Aug 3, 2012. 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
    Yes, but for the moment, neither a reasonable argument nor pictures will convince those who own Amazon. Perhaps telling the story using hand puppets would work.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, Spain, Part 1 [View article]
    I don't think it is worthy of being read again and again.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Overpay Now, Will I Regret It Later? [View instapost]
    There's a big question in this excellent instablog, and a little one as well. First, are your rules too rigid? Rules applied to emotions and to relationships should not be so rigid. You love a painting, you would get incalculable satisfaction from seeing it every day for years, so you should buy it. A house is also an emotional thing but too many people in the last decade or so have fallen in love with a house, subsequently getting an experience, albeit not the one they had hoped for.

    For financial investments, rules should be a lot tighter. Will you attain great emotional satisfaction from owning a particular stock? I think the more heathy attitude is satisfaction in seeing a yearly total return of 5%, 6% or 8%. Anybody who feels happy because he owns a piece of something should perhaps start with a hobby, or buy a dog.

    The bigger question is: how to deal with regrets? Which of course is connected to the even bigger question: how to live properly? But I have blathered enough here already.
    Aug 2, 2012. 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, Portugal (Part 1) [View article]
    These are really first-class articles! I wish there were more authors at SA who do this kind of timely and thorough analysis. Surely, there are buying opportunities in Greece, or Ireland, but one doesn't hear enough about them.

    That said, I am disinclined to purchase Portuguese stocks as Portugal has a high withholding tax on dividends that is notoriously difficult to get refunded. (The same applies to Italy and Norway). It sounds like a counter-productive public policy to me.
    Aug 1, 2012. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Perspectives On The 'French Lion In The Grass' [View article]
    Valuediv, I agree with you 100% -- with the caveat that America is still the place to go to if you are brilliant and want to make lots of money.

    But to illustrate your points, some personal information. I live in a lovely (quiet and roomy) apartment in the walkable center of Frankfurt, Germany, for €550 rent per month. Comprehensive health insurance costs me another €400. My daughter is studying at university in Edinburgh, where tuition is free, just as it is in most places in Europe. I have a car, but for most business purposes I take a super quick and convenient train which can zip me to Paris in three hours; a ticket costs €60, if I buy early enough. I just took a vacation in beautiful Sardinia; flying to this place of coral beaches and delicious wine via Ryanair (a super-efficient Irish operator) cost me less than €100.

    My point being: purchasing power is one nice thing, but providing efficient infrastructure and public goods for all is another. The proof of the pudding is in the balance, if you'll pardon my mixed metaphor.
    Jul 30, 2012. 04:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Perspectives On The 'French Lion In The Grass' [View article]
    Very interesting article. Paris will bite the bullet when they need to, no earlier and no later. If it is later, it will be a big and bitter bullet.

    But one question remains: how high is the internal level of debt? In other words, how much of France's debt is owned by the French?

    As I understand it, the market considers Japan's sky-high level of debt to be less than crucial because most of it is owned by Japanese savers. In other words, the Japanese are highly in hock to themselves - not exactly a scary scenerio. Et tu, France?
    Jul 29, 2012. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Seasonality Suggests A Buying Opportunity By July's End [View article]
    This is a highly interesting strategy for those of us who just can't stop investing in Nokia. Since I belong to this unhappy group, I'll probably try it out.

    Beware however a strategy that says you need a ten-year horizon, when the company you are talking about may well not be around in even five year's time.
    Jul 26, 2012. 06:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Is More Important Than Yield (Don't Be A Yield Vigilante) [View article]
    As good as this article is, my experience with strawberries is that they will multiply and grow for several years if you weed your strawberry patch often enough.

    Which is my way of saying: buying/planting isn't enough, no matter whether you intend to reap fruit or dividends. What you need to do is buy and monitor. Nothing is secure under the sun.
    Jul 20, 2012. 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Buy Nokia After Today's Earnings Report [View article]
    Very difficult decision because NOK is still a very intransparent company.

    They have one highly desirable product -- the Pureview 808 -- that you cannot even buy from Amazon directly in most countries; prices and stock vary on a daily basis (from €540 to €620 here in Germany) and it seems they don't have their production up to capacity yet, weeks after the product has been introduced. This is a phone they have been developing for five years but it seems their supply chain and manufacturing is not working well. Not to mention, you can't get a Pureview that is subventioned by a carrier. Why not?

    All high-end Nokias will be obsolete in a few months time: Symbian is a goner and WP 7.5 Lumias will not run with WP8. We have no idea how buggy WP8 phones will be for the first few months. And what's happening to Asha? Correct me if I'm wrong but these entry-level smartphones run on Symbian, which is supposedly being phased out -- what's the plan here?

    From my POV, Nokia is a distracted, compartmentalized company with little focus on detail. I sold half of my (small) holdings on today's strength and will only be a buyer if the market shows it believes in the company's viability. It's time to forget the speculative fundamentals (will WP8 be a hit? who the heck can know?) and concentrate on technical analysis.
    Jul 19, 2012. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Your Chance To Be A Venture Capitalist [View article]
    Interesting story; good technical picture (uptrend with a bottom twice tested at around $3); reasonable valuation.

    Downside: mediocre record.

    Sounds like a good chance-risk ratio to me. I think I'll dip my toes into the water with this one. Thank you, Paulo!
    Jul 19, 2012. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Is A Great Dividend Stock [View article]
    You never buy a stock when it's hit its lowest point -- unless you are very lucky.

    I've been watching EMR drift down for weeks, and thought about buying on Tuesday, since it was the last steady dividend grower I had on my shopping list. What the heck, I was unlucky, so what. All the better that the stock seems to have broken its downtrend; I'll be a buyer on weak days.
    Jul 19, 2012. 03:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Growth Stocks You Should Buy Now [View instapost]
    These investment ideas are invaluable.

    I like to do a small amount of mo-mo investing (mostly, I am a slo-mo dividend-growth seeker) for which your instablog announcements are just great.

    Thank you, Jim!
    Jul 17, 2012. 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi: Undervalued French Media And Telecom Conglomerate [View article]
    This is working out fine for me. Up over 3% today.
    Jul 13, 2012. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Averaging Down Is A Bad Investment Strategy [View article]
    "freaks" was a weak attempt at being amusing: sorry for that. I am a dividend investor myself, so certainly I do not want to insult that cahort.
    Jul 13, 2012. 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment