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Occupation : Freelance Pirate, International Jewel Thief, and Bon Viveur.
My 'macro-view' :
Stock prices seem (with thanks to the late, great Dr. Howard Katz - "The One-Handed Economist" - for this insight) to run on a generational cycle of 16~19 years.
1929 - 1948 : Bear market. Dow down ~58% (381 to 161); the bottom in 1949 was lower than the price in the whole of 1927-31 .
1948 - 1966 : Bull market. Dow up ~400% (200 to 995).
1966 - 1982 : Bear market. Dow down ~22% (995 to 777). Adjusting for 70's inflation, it was down *badly*.
1982 - 2000 : Bull market. Dow up ~1400% (777 to 11,722).
2000 - 20?? ...Dow is (at 16,400) up just 39% over 14
years. This is a bear market, but very few people seem to acknowledge this yet. There's money to be made in the dead-cat-bounces, but any 'buy and hold' strategy has been a mug's game (unless the dividend is decent).
Commodities, especially precious metals, seem to move counter to the general stock market (though the US enforced government monopoly, and price fix' of $35/ozt, for much of the 20th Century, has confused things greatly). This is an era to invest in metals & miners.
Gold, Stocks - long
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