Pauly B

U.S. Empire In Decline, Makes Way for China

China still needs consumers for their products and if they drive America and Europe down they will likely have political unrest as their economy gets weaker. In this case it takes three to tango and I am sure their leadership understand that.

Both parties in Washington have shown little leadership in dealing with imbalances in the system whether it be currencies or trade. Whats more disturbing is that current FED policy allows China's economy to be supported by the American Taxpayer with this massive worldwide liquidity. .

Is Stock Market Uptrend Still Intact?

As long as the FED maintains current policy I see no major decline in the markets or commodities as they continue to drive the dollar down. Any change by the FED though and watch this market unwind.

For the present, (with current FED policy) I see 1250 on the S& P by years end.

My Options Play on Apple

There are always trade offs with every option stradgey.

You might want to think about trading double calendars on Apple 3 weeks out before earnings to capture the volatility increase prior to earnings. Get out two or 3 days before earnings and whala! You should have a nice return

Are Precious Metals and Energy Overbought?

You should be just fine long with the current FED policy as it stands. It is unlikely they will do anything with rates with the job losses increasing for some time.

When the short the dollar long equities trade unwinds though it will likely be violent and send shudders through the commodity and equity markets

Commodity Strength: A Quick Look

Too much spending by congress and debt buybacks by the FED and not enough firm FED policy are causing commodities to rise. Finally this week Barrons is questioning what the exit strategy is for the FED!

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

You have done a great job laying out your case and not that I dont disagree on many points.

Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!

Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?

10 Reasons Markets Will Move Even Higher

One of the big questions though is the weakness of the US Dollar, its manipulation, and at what point does that change this bull market. I would feel alot better if the dollar was a little stronger and we had a bull market

The Declining Dollar: Is There a Government Solution?

Your right everyone is drinking the same cool aide in Washington on monetary policy.

Ohhh how I remember the 70's when Chairman Paul Volker gave us the bad tasting medicine with those high interest rates. But you know what, it worked!

Don't Expect Tax Breaks to Boost Hiring

Your right Chad, CEO's are not going to hire workers just because they are going to get a tax break. They are going to hire workers because there is demand for their product.

It seems some in Washington fail to realize we have a deflationary spiral going on here. People must have confidence before they buy.

If I can't even get my flu shot because of Washington (ya they screwed that up too) how are they going to create a jobs!

Beware the Next Bubble

Whether it be beanie babies, oil, or housing; a bubble is a bubble. Each of these each have their own little nuances in their own way though.

Your right, irrationality has a lot to do with it, but with the FED you have an added element: POLITICS.

Right now I think the street is in the "recovery bubble" with everyone thinking the same way and coming on CNBC to tell us how wonderful things are.

What happened to the ISM numbers and the Unemployment rate a week ago? Long forgotten I guess.

Are We Poised for Another Great Bull Market?

You cannot take the US market as a sole indicator anymore. You have to look at various world markets and take them into context because they are all interrelated. Moreover FED policy and various central bank policies also affect our markets now as shown in the devaluation of the dollar. Lastly commodities worldwide also play a central role in the pricing of our markets.

Unemployment: The Gathering Storm

For me I want a visual on the jobs numbers.


For this I look at the empty industrial and strip malls that surround my community. Two years ago it was booming. No employment there

I also look at the morning rush hour reports, there is alot less traffic congestion because there are fewer jobs to drive to. Another indicator is the amount of people shopping at Good Will, (the lots are full) as are the Dollar Tree's and Family Dollar stores. This gives a good visual to the jobs numbers you are talking about!

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Agree Mad Hedge Fund, the PE's are insane.

Another interesting thing I saw interday on Friday was the dollar was going down as the market was going down. Ummmm thats a little bit of a shift. Maybe its nothing but this is something to be watching over the next few weeks.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I agree with Dennis Gartman who was on Bloomberg and said that this market sell off was a dollar squeeze as far to many were short the dollar and it had to give somewhere. I suspect we will still see more dollar destruction as the printing presses continue to run and this was just a relief valve going off.

Federal Reserve: Readying a Stealth Tightening of Monetary Policy?

Great great insight. Wish you were a FED governor!

My fear is that if the FED doesn't get this exit of stimulus right the consumer is really going to take it on the chin.

I hope the FED does say something about the dollar today. This is getting concerning. If they dont I am going to see it in the grocery isle!