Pauly B's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/83273/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/168664-u-s-empire-in-decline-makes-way-for-china?source=feed#comment-729506 729506
Both parties in Washington have shown little leadership in dealing with imbalances in the system whether it be currencies or trade. Whats more disturbing is that current FED policy allows China's economy to be supported by the American Taxpayer with this massive worldwide liquidity. .]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:07:22 -0400
Both parties in Washington have shown little leadership in dealing with imbalances in the system whether it be currencies or trade. Whats more disturbing is that current FED policy allows China's economy to be supported by the American Taxpayer with this massive worldwide liquidity. .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168675-is-stock-market-uptrend-still-intact?source=feed#comment-729423 729423
For the present, (with current FED policy) I see 1250 on the S& P by years end.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:31:55 -0400
For the present, (with current FED policy) I see 1250 on the S& P by years end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168076-my-options-play-on-apple?source=feed#comment-725025 725025
You might want to think about trading double calendars on Apple 3 weeks out before earnings to capture the volatility increase prior to earnings. Get out two or 3 days before earnings and whala! You should have a nice return]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:23:31 -0400
You might want to think about trading double calendars on Apple 3 weeks out before earnings to capture the volatility increase prior to earnings. Get out two or 3 days before earnings and whala! You should have a nice return]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167315-are-precious-metals-and-energy-overbought?source=feed#comment-721952 721952
When the short the dollar long equities trade unwinds though it will likely be violent and send shudders through the commodity and equity markets]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:45:37 -0400
When the short the dollar long equities trade unwinds though it will likely be violent and send shudders through the commodity and equity markets]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167064-commodity-strength-a-quick-look?source=feed#comment-719224 719224 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 09:07:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167060-the-greatest-depression-is-coming?source=feed#comment-718449 718449
Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!

Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 09:32:58 -0400
Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!

Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166146-10-reasons-markets-will-move-even-higher?source=feed#comment-713706 713706 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:13:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165763-the-declining-dollar-is-there-a-government-solution?source=feed#comment-711567 711567
Ohhh how I remember the 70's when Chairman Paul Volker gave us the bad tasting medicine with those high interest rates. But you know what, it worked! ]]> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 09:53:06 -0400
Ohhh how I remember the 70's when Chairman Paul Volker gave us the bad tasting medicine with those high interest rates. But you know what, it worked! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165799-don-t-expect-tax-breaks-to-boost-hiring?source=feed#comment-711555 711555
It seems some in Washington fail to realize we have a deflationary spiral going on here. People must have confidence before they buy.

If I can't even get my flu shot because of Washington (ya they screwed that up too) how are they going to create a jobs!]]> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 09:36:27 -0400
It seems some in Washington fail to realize we have a deflationary spiral going on here. People must have confidence before they buy.

If I can't even get my flu shot because of Washington (ya they screwed that up too) how are they going to create a jobs!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165449-beware-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-708428 708428
Your right, irrationality has a lot to do with it, but with the FED you have an added element: POLITICS.

Right now I think the street is in the "recovery bubble" with everyone thinking the same way and coming on CNBC to tell us how wonderful things are.

What happened to the ISM numbers and the Unemployment rate a week ago? Long forgotten I guess. ]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 09:02:38 -0400
Your right, irrationality has a lot to do with it, but with the FED you have an added element: POLITICS.

Right now I think the street is in the "recovery bubble" with everyone thinking the same way and coming on CNBC to tell us how wonderful things are.

What happened to the ISM numbers and the Unemployment rate a week ago? Long forgotten I guess. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164033-are-we-poised-for-another-great-bull-market?source=feed#comment-696800 696800
You cannot take the US market as a sole indicator anymore. You have to look at various world markets and take them into context because they are all interrelated. Moreover FED policy and various central bank policies also affect our markets now as shown in the devaluation of the dollar. Lastly commodities worldwide also play a central role in the pricing of our markets.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:39:01 -0400
You cannot take the US market as a sole indicator anymore. You have to look at various world markets and take them into context because they are all interrelated. Moreover FED policy and various central bank policies also affect our markets now as shown in the devaluation of the dollar. Lastly commodities worldwide also play a central role in the pricing of our markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163566-unemployment-the-gathering-storm?source=feed#comment-692920 692920

For this I look at the empty industrial and strip malls that surround my community. Two years ago it was booming. No employment there

I also look at the morning rush hour reports, there is alot less traffic congestion because there are fewer jobs to drive to. Another indicator is the amount of people shopping at Good Will, (the lots are full) as are the Dollar Tree's and Family Dollar stores. This gives a good visual to the jobs numbers you are talking about!]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 10:03:18 -0400

For this I look at the empty industrial and strip malls that surround my community. Two years ago it was booming. No employment there

I also look at the morning rush hour reports, there is alot less traffic congestion because there are fewer jobs to drive to. Another indicator is the amount of people shopping at Good Will, (the lots are full) as are the Dollar Tree's and Family Dollar stores. This gives a good visual to the jobs numbers you are talking about!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163506-friday-roundup-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-692864 692864
Another interesting thing I saw interday on Friday was the dollar was going down as the market was going down. Ummmm thats a little bit of a shift. Maybe its nothing but this is something to be watching over the next few weeks.]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 08:52:55 -0400
Another interesting thing I saw interday on Friday was the dollar was going down as the market was going down. Ummmm thats a little bit of a shift. Maybe its nothing but this is something to be watching over the next few weeks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163351-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-690624 690624 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:30:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162927-federal-reserve-readying-a-stealth-tightening-of-monetary-policy?source=feed#comment-687381 687381
My fear is that if the FED doesn't get this exit of stimulus right the consumer is really going to take it on the chin.

I hope the FED does say something about the dollar today. This is getting concerning. If they dont I am going to see it in the grocery isle!]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 09:44:01 -0400
My fear is that if the FED doesn't get this exit of stimulus right the consumer is really going to take it on the chin.

I hope the FED does say something about the dollar today. This is getting concerning. If they dont I am going to see it in the grocery isle!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162938-pre-fomc-trading-thoughts?source=feed#comment-687353 687353
I dont see them doing that with the current unemployment but they could make a very hawkish statement today on the dollar. I think as a consumer they will have to do something or the we will really be hit.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 09:29:37 -0400
I dont see them doing that with the current unemployment but they could make a very hawkish statement today on the dollar. I think as a consumer they will have to do something or the we will really be hit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162531-four-macro-market-signals?source=feed#comment-686020 686020
I think we are seeing probes in inflation with golds current price.

The language going forward on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting is what I am watching for]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 09:16:06 -0400
I think we are seeing probes in inflation with golds current price.

The language going forward on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting is what I am watching for]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162497-upward-market-trend-continues?source=feed#comment-684783 684783
1. The market continues to pull away from all the moving averages. Eventually these moving averages will "tug" the price action back to the moving average. This is the correction we are all looking for.

2. The next earnings season and the forward language these companies use will likely move the markets more than they have this fall.

3. Technically the market to watch for the equity market is the FOREX markets to watch that dollar action. Right now all of this move is tied to our weaker dollar.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 09:33:16 -0400
1. The market continues to pull away from all the moving averages. Eventually these moving averages will "tug" the price action back to the moving average. This is the correction we are all looking for.

2. The next earnings season and the forward language these companies use will likely move the markets more than they have this fall.

3. Technically the market to watch for the equity market is the FOREX markets to watch that dollar action. Right now all of this move is tied to our weaker dollar.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162301-closing-update-for-friday-sept-18-bull-run-hangs-on-barely?source=feed#comment-683628 683628
The market now is mainly about the weakness of the US dollar and if the world will continue to buy our dollars and fund our debt. Any movements in the bond markets could really put a hold on this bull run.]]> Sat, 19 Sep 2009 16:56:43 -0400
The market now is mainly about the weakness of the US dollar and if the world will continue to buy our dollars and fund our debt. Any movements in the bond markets could really put a hold on this bull run.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161927-pundits-are-wrong-healthcare-reform-will-increase-profits?source=feed#comment-681327 681327
Lets slow down and find out all these abuses in the current system the President spoke about last week in his joint session with congress. If I remember right he said much the new single payer system would be paid by the abuse and fraud of the current system.

Shouldn't we find the abuses before we proceed with the new?]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:48:37 -0400
Lets slow down and find out all these abuses in the current system the President spoke about last week in his joint session with congress. If I remember right he said much the new single payer system would be paid by the abuse and fraud of the current system.

Shouldn't we find the abuses before we proceed with the new?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161904-bullish-stance-is-wearing-thin?source=feed#comment-680491 680491 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 09:11:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161665-bloomberg-real-estate-expert-says-recovery-is-very-fragile?source=feed#comment-678840 678840
Without leases and renters more defaults by the borrowers will happen. The jobs numbers dont lag in this area as the owners of the commercial property still have to pay the mortgage to the bank,

More toxic assets on banking and insurance balance sheets.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 08:58:26 -0400
Without leases and renters more defaults by the borrowers will happen. The jobs numbers dont lag in this area as the owners of the commercial property still have to pay the mortgage to the bank,

More toxic assets on banking and insurance balance sheets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161343-short-interest-on-spy-shows-rally-may-falter?source=feed#comment-675487 675487
I am selling call spreads on the SPX the SPY's big brother]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 08:46:54 -0400
I am selling call spreads on the SPX the SPY's big brother]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161146-money-talks-but-gold-shouts?source=feed#comment-674280 674280
Gold is tricky business and you have to be a sophisticated trader to understand it, especially the fundamentals and cycles in gold.

After reading this I am going to dig a deeper hole for my physical gold I own.]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 09:50:14 -0400
Gold is tricky business and you have to be a sophisticated trader to understand it, especially the fundamentals and cycles in gold.

After reading this I am going to dig a deeper hole for my physical gold I own.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161006-does-wall-street-believe-in-the-rally?source=feed#comment-671795 671795
Then I see the US and other countries have their printing presses turned on 24/7 and a huge deflationary spiral developing.

On the contrarian side though this whole thing appears to be getting just a little bit tipsy. One little word out by the FED on the dollar could leave alot of people in tears on their commodity plays.

There is alot of manipulation in the currency markets we the public will never know.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 09:14:54 -0400
Then I see the US and other countries have their printing presses turned on 24/7 and a huge deflationary spiral developing.

On the contrarian side though this whole thing appears to be getting just a little bit tipsy. One little word out by the FED on the dollar could leave alot of people in tears on their commodity plays.

There is alot of manipulation in the currency markets we the public will never know.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160207-are-the-policymakers-waking-up?source=feed#comment-664995 664995
People are hurting out here in America, dont they get it? Small business is really hurting and the middle class that makes this whole thing run is totally under attack.

As to policy makers, their worse than the talking heads. Their is only a handful from either side of the aisle that are good for the country and see this mess as middle America does.


Could we talk you into starting your own network so we get fair and balanced on the markets? Maybe people like you, John Browne, Peter Schiff, and Doug Kass could anchor it? ]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:41:03 -0400
People are hurting out here in America, dont they get it? Small business is really hurting and the middle class that makes this whole thing run is totally under attack.

As to policy makers, their worse than the talking heads. Their is only a handful from either side of the aisle that are good for the country and see this mess as middle America does.


Could we talk you into starting your own network so we get fair and balanced on the markets? Maybe people like you, John Browne, Peter Schiff, and Doug Kass could anchor it? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160140-has-capitalism-failed?source=feed#comment-663822 663822
We dont need career politicians in our Congress, they long ago gave up on their party platforms and went to "I scratch your back, you scratch mine" system of governing on a mega scale.

The country saw the logic of this with the President on term limits and changed the constitution, we need to do it for congress too. That will also help give Capitalism a chance too.]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 09:19:32 -0400
We dont need career politicians in our Congress, they long ago gave up on their party platforms and went to "I scratch your back, you scratch mine" system of governing on a mega scale.

The country saw the logic of this with the President on term limits and changed the constitution, we need to do it for congress too. That will also help give Capitalism a chance too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160160-u-s-indices-ytd-stats-current-moving-averages-september-4-close?source=feed#comment-663798 663798
Technically ,the MACD is starting to tilt down, along with many other popular indicators. Financials; XLF had a big dump the other day and look weak too. This recent rise in gold is concerning too, do insiders smell blood? I dont know.

Hopefully we will trade sideways for awhile, let this thing cool, and continue up later this fall.]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 09:03:15 -0400
Technically ,the MACD is starting to tilt down, along with many other popular indicators. Financials; XLF had a big dump the other day and look weak too. This recent rise in gold is concerning too, do insiders smell blood? I dont know.

Hopefully we will trade sideways for awhile, let this thing cool, and continue up later this fall.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159767-the-market-valuation-and-future-earnings?source=feed#comment-660053 660053
Another question, What is the PE of Congress and their insane spending? That should offset any positive earnings in the S&P.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:10:21 -0400
Another question, What is the PE of Congress and their insane spending? That should offset any positive earnings in the S&P.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158923-gold-four-reasons-to-expect-september-gains?source=feed#comment-653006 653006 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 07:48:47 -0400