Pauly B

Pre-FOMC Trading Thoughts

It was interesting the other night on Kudlow; Wayne Angel, former FED governor was calling for the FED to raise rates because of commodities rise in recent weeks.

I dont see them doing that with the current unemployment but they could make a very hawkish statement today on the dollar. I think as a consumer they will have to do something or the we will really be hit.

Four Macro Market Signals

The question I have is when will the FED recognize this inflationary commodity issue and do something about it so the consumer isn't destroyed?

I think we are seeing probes in inflation with golds current price.

The language going forward on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting is what I am watching for

Upward Market Trend Continues

Your right the signals point bull market for now technically. There are a few things that concern me though and why I keep my stops tight.

1. The market continues to pull away from all the moving averages. Eventually these moving averages will "tug" the price action back to the moving average. This is the correction we are all looking for.

2. The next earnings season and the forward language these companies use will likely move the markets more than they have this fall.

3. Technically the market to watch for the equity market is the FOREX markets to watch that dollar action. Right now all of this move is tied to our weaker dollar.

Closing Update for Friday, Sept. 18: Bull Run Hangs On, Barely

It will be interesting what the FED will say (if they do) about the falling dollar next week. This could have significant impact going forward.

The market now is mainly about the weakness of the US dollar and if the world will continue to buy our dollars and fund our debt. Any movements in the bond markets could really put a hold on this bull run.

Pundits Are Wrong: Healthcare Reform Will Increase Profits

If medicare and Medicaid is rife with fraud and abuse I fear what a huge sink hole a single payer system would be.

Lets slow down and find out all these abuses in the current system the President spoke about last week in his joint session with congress. If I remember right he said much the new single payer system would be paid by the abuse and fraud of the current system.

Shouldn't we find the abuses before we proceed with the new?

Bullish Stance Is Wearing Thin

It will be interesting how the market will react if the Chinese dont show up for one of our bond auctions because of this tire tariff?

Bloomberg: Real Estate Expert Says Recovery Is 'Very Fragile'

In order for a sky scraper to have value one has to have leases and renters in those offices to make it valuable.

Without leases and renters more defaults by the borrowers will happen. The jobs numbers dont lag in this area as the owners of the commercial property still have to pay the mortgage to the bank,

More toxic assets on banking and insurance balance sheets.

Short Interest on SPY Shows Rally May Falter

The volume for the most part has been pathetic on the SPY the last month and half. This has been true with good gains on the ETF. Low Volume, higher prices, not always a good sign.

I am selling call spreads on the SPX the SPY's big brother

Money Talks but Gold Shouts

I agree with you Mad Hedge Fund trader, Silver should have been brought into this discussion too. I own gold and silver but like silver better.

Gold is tricky business and you have to be a sophisticated trader to understand it, especially the fundamentals and cycles in gold.

After reading this I am going to dig a deeper hole for my physical gold I own.

Does Wall Street Believe in the Rally?

If I were in China why would I buy anything but gold right now. I hold all this US paper which is turning into worthless paper.

Then I see the US and other countries have their printing presses turned on 24/7 and a huge deflationary spiral developing.

On the contrarian side though this whole thing appears to be getting just a little bit tipsy. One little word out by the FED on the dollar could leave alot of people in tears on their commodity plays.

There is alot of manipulation in the currency markets we the public will never know.

Are the Policymakers Waking Up?

Karl, I am so sick of these talking heads on the news channels touting this market as solvent and making a recovery. I think I am in la la land when I watch. I give you kudos for taking them on!

People are hurting out here in America, dont they get it? Small business is really hurting and the middle class that makes this whole thing run is totally under attack.

As to policy makers, their worse than the talking heads. Their is only a handful from either side of the aisle that are good for the country and see this mess as middle America does.


Could we talk you into starting your own network so we get fair and balanced on the markets? Maybe people like you, John Browne, Peter Schiff, and Doug Kass could anchor it?

Has Capitalism Failed?

When I watch these town hall meetings and how out of touch these politicians are the more I swing to Term Limits, Term Limits, Term limits!!!!!!!

We dont need career politicians in our Congress, they long ago gave up on their party platforms and went to "I scratch your back, you scratch mine" system of governing on a mega scale.

The country saw the logic of this with the President on term limits and changed the constitution, we need to do it for congress too. That will also help give Capitalism a chance too.

U.S. Indices: YTD Stats, Current Moving Averages (September 4 Close)

Equally important is the lack of volume this summer to support these indexes to be above their 20 day moving averages. Volume on many days is just not there and it is easy for institutions to drive the markets up in a few key stocks. All of us who trade daily know the last half hour drill in the S&P this summer.

Technically ,the MACD is starting to tilt down, along with many other popular indicators. Financials; XLF had a big dump the other day and look weak too. This recent rise in gold is concerning too, do insiders smell blood? I dont know.

Hopefully we will trade sideways for awhile, let this thing cool, and continue up later this fall.

The Market, Valuation and Future Earnings

Good article.

Another question, What is the PE of Congress and their insane spending? That should offset any positive earnings in the S&P.

Gold: Four Reasons to Expect September Gains

Any good bounce in the dollar will kick gold in the teeth. The dollar is so beaten down right now that any shift in sentiment to it could cause huge shifts in the gold market. Alot of people will be in tears if that happens.