Pauly B

The New Highs: Will S&P Keep This Upward Trajectory?

I look for some retracement and consolidation the next two weeks as we go into option expiration. The street got its long awaited number and is likely to take a breather. The more parabolic this moves the more dangerous. Remember oil last summer?

Will it be sell the news, or as they say, sell mania (which we are at now) We shall see in the next two weeks

These 5 ETFs Could Derail the Market's Momentum

Dollar continues to tumble will mean higher and higher fuel prices. For the consumer a disaster. Just look how fuel has gone up the last 5 weeks. Its not inventory, its not demand, its not production, it is the dollar upping fuel prices.

The FED needs to do something even if painful to stabilize this free-fall and help the consumer.

How to Play an S&P Pullback Below 950

The earning power and future earning power of the majors makes me believe we are overvalued here based on projected earnings. Moreover consumer confidence is not there. There is only so much companies can cut.

Recession Is Over: Long Live Depression

Right on, thanks for the post! CNBC is in for a shock!

Will Fundamentals Improve Fast Enough to Keep Up with Markets This Week?

I see some strength starting to develop over in the bond market in the TLT and IEF. Also the VIX is starting to take a bid. Many of the mega cap names are posting shooting stars and weakness in the candle patterns showing that buyers are not buying at these levels. I sense institutions are not buying for now. I look for a pullback and more volatility and consolidation over the next two weeks.

Dead Banks Walking

To add to that the XLF has really not participated in this rally as it should. Since they make up a good portion of the S&P if we were in a solid bull run they would be on fire too. I question the valuations of these banks too based on what you have laid out.

The only good thing with the consumer pulling back and saving more is that it makes dollars more precious rather than something to be thrown around with gobs of credit from banks like we did in the past.

Dow Theory Points to New Cyclical Bull Market

We need people and business to buy these goods and services. With rising unemployment where are people and businesses going to get the money for sustaining this up move in valuation of these equities?

The FED will only be able to hold off on raising interest rates so long. Then dislocation in the bond market, raise rates to service this massive debt out of Washington, and heavy heavy headwinds for business to expand and hire the people that are unemployed. Money for business and individuals will be just too expensive.

Yes we may rally more here and get to some of the predicted levels, but a storm is a brewing..... in the distance.

A Conversation with David Swensen

I couldn't agree with Mr Swenson more. The individual has to do their own homework.

How many brokers advise you to even purchase a few puts in a portfolio becausemaybe you might need a little insurance in case there is major event?

How many say maybe we should go to cash because on the monthly SPX the moving averages have changed and a major downturn is in place? Or for that matter say maybe you should take a small part of your portfolio now because of this downturn and go short in a inverse ETF?

How many offer you a low cost ETF rather than an expensive mutual fund for that matter?

Nope, its all about sales of mutual funds, fat management fees, and asset allocation with continued funding.

How to Play the Real Story Behind Earnings

The amount of debt the government is creating will have a huge factor in the markets. There is only so much the FED will be able to hold back on rates until they have to raise interest rates to sell the bonds. There will be a point that China, Japan, and others will throw up there hands and stop buying until rates are adjusted. Some of that is taking place now where countries are moving away from the dollar in the news. We should be reducing debt for the markets not increasing it.

All we will have is expensive money for business and that is not good for growth and jobs.

Where is the XLF? Why are we not getting strong participation from that sector in this current breakout?

We are heading lower folks, Technically we are at a junction on many of the charts both in the dollar and the S&P. The next couple of weeks will shake this out.

How to Play the Real Story Behind Earnings

The CEO's of these companies know exactly what you are talking about. They know that Q3 and Q4 numbers are going to be worse.

More concerning though is small business that give really give employment. Just driving around my area I see literally hundreds of vacancy signs in strip malls and commercial areas. I see no recovery there.

Strange too is there are alot less UPS trucks in my neighborhood than there were two years ago, ummmm, Kinda correlates with their earnings.

I suspect something will blowup out of China, the dollar, or our bond markets to correct this silliness.

Q2 Earnings Are Not What They Seem

Great post. Couldn't agree more. Question is what happens in Q3 and Q 4? Most of these companies have downsized considerably and they cant cut forever long term. Moreover these workers who have been displaced by layoffs, what happens to them?

The other interesting thing was UPS earnings. Ummmm that was as significant as Microsoft's. If everything is so great, why are the freight loads down and they are loosing money? Answer, The consumer is not done de-leveraging!

The other interesting thing is that the XLF is not participating like the other sectors. Why are institutions not buying them? For this truly to be a bull run shouldn't the financials be strong with full participation since they make up a good portion of the indexes?


This parabolic move is likely to correct hard.

There will be a piece of bad news coming that they will not be able to ignore. I sense it will be coming from the bond markets.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Maybe the US dollar is now being used for the carry trade?

Right now the entire market is the dollar trade. Compare the UUP and the SPY. Bingo, almost direct correlation. Its a FOREX market all on the fundamentals of the dollar.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Everyone is so euphoric right now. Everything is fixed, green shoots everywhere.
The VIX and Put to Call Ratio over at the CBOE are getting ridiculously low.

Best of all the Hal 9000 saves us everyday 1/2 hour before close to keep the market higher.

Ummmmmm perhaps I should keep my stops pretty tight!

Bulls Push Through Bears' Lines of Defense

This rally is scary.

Too much, to fast, many days low volume, massive computer trades, companies beating estimates by cutting thousands of workers jobs, Year over year revenue way down in many companies, price action showing euphoric lows on the VIX, shrinking GDP. Financials not participating broadly. uummmmm


Any political or major economic event and this is the stuff crashes are made of. How will the jobs numbers come in for August?

For me I am not drinking this cool-aide just yet.

Options Trader Weekend Update: Charts, Art and Market Manipulation

The daily put call ratio over at the CBOE right now is a little concerning. Showing lots of complacency and due for some profit taking this week or perhaps a little correction. Just like Merdith Whitney igniting last weeks fuse the same could easily happen in reverse this week. Also take a look at the weekly on the Ichimoku clouds. Lot of resistance overhead.