Pauly B

Commodity Strength: A Quick Look

Too much spending by congress and debt buybacks by the FED and not enough firm FED policy are causing commodities to rise. Finally this week Barrons is questioning what the exit strategy is for the FED!

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Agree Mad Hedge Fund, the PE's are insane.

Another interesting thing I saw interday on Friday was the dollar was going down as the market was going down. Ummmm thats a little bit of a shift. Maybe its nothing but this is something to be watching over the next few weeks.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I agree with Dennis Gartman who was on Bloomberg and said that this market sell off was a dollar squeeze as far to many were short the dollar and it had to give somewhere. I suspect we will still see more dollar destruction as the printing presses continue to run and this was just a relief valve going off.

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

This moonshot could still go quite away's but boy am I protecting my longs right now. With all buyers and no sellers that is concerning to me.

Even the bulls have to be friends with the bears sometimes. The bears help to keep equilibrium. A good 5% pullback or a consolidation for a few weeks would be very healthy for my longs right now.

Your right, the fundamentals of the market are not on Wall Street but in Washington right now. When the printing press stops the punch-bowel will be taken away.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Maybe the US dollar is now being used for the carry trade?

Right now the entire market is the dollar trade. Compare the UUP and the SPY. Bingo, almost direct correlation. Its a FOREX market all on the fundamentals of the dollar.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Everyone is so euphoric right now. Everything is fixed, green shoots everywhere.
The VIX and Put to Call Ratio over at the CBOE are getting ridiculously low.

Best of all the Hal 9000 saves us everyday 1/2 hour before close to keep the market higher.

Ummmmmm perhaps I should keep my stops pretty tight!

Predictions for 2009: Who Will Be the Winners and Losers?

Wall Street, the FED, and the government was no different than the car makers, they just delivered what we all wanted, instead of huge SUV's they gave us credit. Credit in unlimited amounts, credit without restriction or regulation.

Max out our credit cards, no problem, qualify for homes we could never afford, no problem, take equity out of our homes to buy betting our asset will increase, no problem, run up huge deficits that will never be paid, go for it, invest with under-regulated hedge fund managers that were allowed to leverage with incredible risk, sounds great, We asked for it we got it.

We totaled out Dads car going to the prom here folks and we all learned a painful lesson in the process. Danna H I agree with you, it was not failure of capitalism, it was a failure in us.

Five Ways the Global Economy Is Rebounding

The 800 pound gorilla in the room yet is home prices. There are there are still huge pockets of real-estate in distress with increasing foreclosures. Second, in 2009 jobless numbers will increase even more.

Even with what you lay out it is going to take along time before anything positive happens.

Risk Management in Trending Markets

I agree much of this is FED policy.


Putting the stock charts aside if one looks at the jobs numbers, bond and currency markets, this bear market was clearly developing June 2007 and has grown worse with each FED decision. I think they need to defend the dollar harder and be more focused on that.