Pauly B

10 Reasons Markets Will Move Even Higher

One of the big questions though is the weakness of the US Dollar, its manipulation, and at what point does that change this bull market. I would feel alot better if the dollar was a little stronger and we had a bull market

Beware the Next Bubble

Whether it be beanie babies, oil, or housing; a bubble is a bubble. Each of these each have their own little nuances in their own way though.

Your right, irrationality has a lot to do with it, but with the FED you have an added element: POLITICS.

Right now I think the street is in the "recovery bubble" with everyone thinking the same way and coming on CNBC to tell us how wonderful things are.

What happened to the ISM numbers and the Unemployment rate a week ago? Long forgotten I guess.

Are We Poised for Another Great Bull Market?

You cannot take the US market as a sole indicator anymore. You have to look at various world markets and take them into context because they are all interrelated. Moreover FED policy and various central bank policies also affect our markets now as shown in the devaluation of the dollar. Lastly commodities worldwide also play a central role in the pricing of our markets.

Unemployment: The Gathering Storm

For me I want a visual on the jobs numbers.


For this I look at the empty industrial and strip malls that surround my community. Two years ago it was booming. No employment there

I also look at the morning rush hour reports, there is alot less traffic congestion because there are fewer jobs to drive to. Another indicator is the amount of people shopping at Good Will, (the lots are full) as are the Dollar Tree's and Family Dollar stores. This gives a good visual to the jobs numbers you are talking about!

Federal Reserve: Readying a Stealth Tightening of Monetary Policy?

Great great insight. Wish you were a FED governor!

My fear is that if the FED doesn't get this exit of stimulus right the consumer is really going to take it on the chin.

I hope the FED does say something about the dollar today. This is getting concerning. If they dont I am going to see it in the grocery isle!

Bullish Stance Is Wearing Thin

It will be interesting how the market will react if the Chinese dont show up for one of our bond auctions because of this tire tariff?

Bloomberg: Real Estate Expert Says Recovery Is 'Very Fragile'

In order for a sky scraper to have value one has to have leases and renters in those offices to make it valuable.

Without leases and renters more defaults by the borrowers will happen. The jobs numbers dont lag in this area as the owners of the commercial property still have to pay the mortgage to the bank,

More toxic assets on banking and insurance balance sheets.

Has Capitalism Failed?

When I watch these town hall meetings and how out of touch these politicians are the more I swing to Term Limits, Term Limits, Term limits!!!!!!!

We dont need career politicians in our Congress, they long ago gave up on their party platforms and went to "I scratch your back, you scratch mine" system of governing on a mega scale.

The country saw the logic of this with the President on term limits and changed the constitution, we need to do it for congress too. That will also help give Capitalism a chance too.

U.S. Indices: YTD Stats, Current Moving Averages (September 4 Close)

Equally important is the lack of volume this summer to support these indexes to be above their 20 day moving averages. Volume on many days is just not there and it is easy for institutions to drive the markets up in a few key stocks. All of us who trade daily know the last half hour drill in the S&P this summer.

Technically ,the MACD is starting to tilt down, along with many other popular indicators. Financials; XLF had a big dump the other day and look weak too. This recent rise in gold is concerning too, do insiders smell blood? I dont know.

Hopefully we will trade sideways for awhile, let this thing cool, and continue up later this fall.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

If my checkbook looked like the current balance sheet of the USA I would say that I am not climbing a wall of worry about the markets but would say I should be worried.

This massive massive debt load coming out of Washington just takes more and more money from both the individual and business, especially small business.

Yes I agree with you we are currently in a bull run and the market could climb even higher. I went to cash about a week ago and will forgo any upside moves until I start to really see some improving numbers in earnings, inventories, shipping increases, packaging demand increasing and so on. Q3 and Q4 should really be interesting.

We are entering the fall cycle now. We now will get to see what the market is really made of and if it is overvalued.


On Aug 28 07:24 AM redbaron wrote:

> I agree with the author, and the pundits are just part of the wall
> of worry the market continues to climb. Why not get on board and
> enjoy the ride? Eventually, each pundit will do exactly that, helping
> fuel the advance. It is happening each market day, and that is the
> reason the market continues to climb.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

We have put a lot of lip stick on this pig.

What is funny some folks like pigs with lipstick on them.

I dont see the fundamentals improving much, I am sorry, I just see the pig. without the lip stick.

Death of the Consumer

The one good thing out of all this is that I don't have all those damm credit card applications in my mailbox!

It was past FED policy that caused my mailbox to get full of letters offering easy credit; especially in home equity loans!

Can Americans Save Their Economy?

What is interesting at these town halls many people talk and express themselves better than the elected. The politicians are talking in their scripted political speak and the American people are talking from the heart.

Has the Rally Already Exhausted Itself?

Companies need capital to hire workers and workers need companies to work for so they can spend money.

With this insane spending out of Washington neither will see alot of money in their bottom line until this is corrected. The fundamentals for this market are not in companies but are in Washington.

Basically the US is bankrupt now still living on massive credit, and unbelievably, asking for more credit and then trying to tax its way out of debt with people out of work. Very logical!

The "Street" is ecstatic because companies are cutting costs and are more efficient. That only goes so far. They still need consumers. With dismal reports out of Target, Walmart, and others that is not going to happen so fast. Q3 is going to be a whole lot different than Q2.

U.S. Indices: YTD Stats, Current Moving Averages (August 14 Close)

There could be a whipsaw here. The market just loves to do the exact opposite of what you expect it to do. Todays close should be very interesting.

Will it be heavy volume in the morning, light volume after lunch, and the float up until the close?

This could be a huge buying opportunity for institutions here too and I am cautious putting on shorts here until I get more confirmation.