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pokerman

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  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    It probably had something to do with Fannie and Freddie being dismantled by Congress. But don't listen to me because these mREITs usually do the opposite of what I think they should. Tapering means less competition from the Feds and should be a positive but Market says no. Interest rates going up should mean more money for mREITs, but the Market says no! Cutting dividends and spending the money to buy back their own shares appears to be a negative, but the Market says it is a positive. Now AGNC cuts it's dividend and uses the money to buy it's competition's shares. To my way of thinking this should be a huge negative, but the Market loves that notion for some crazy reason. Color me baffled I guess.
    Mar 12 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Continues Buybacks In A Big Way For Investors [View article]
    As my daddy used to tell me at report card time "I buy your books. I pay for your schooling and all you think about is screwing the teacher. When are you going to learn?" The folks running ARR and JMI, are the same ones who ran Bimini Capital into the ditch, leaving the shareholders holding the bag. They seem to be in a race to see how soon they can run ARR into bankruptcy court, and start over with new shares. This is the only reason I can figure for the way they treat shareholders. Why else would they cut dividends and use the money to buy back shares? They cut dividends, but not salaries or bonuses. If ARR is not a Ponzi scheme in mREIT clothing then we should let Bernie Madoff out of jail and apologize unreservedly.
    Mar 12 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is An Expensive Himax Technologies Still A Buy? [View article]
    Dear Bernard,
    Do as I did and just get over it. The articles on this site almost never portray the headlines accurately. Generally I come here to see what the comments have to say as they are the holders of the stocks mentioned in the articles.
    Mar 11 03:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q1 2014 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 1 [View article]
    Paint me skeptical, but I didn't read anything about the real route to prosperity for AGNC. A couple of years ago Kain et al hired the 2 top guys from Fannie and Freddie after they both had tanked to nearly zero. The only reason I could discern for such a bonehead move was payback for cherry picking AGNC's portfolio previously. The move smacked of illegality but I had a right smart of AGNC stock at the time and had no room to complain.
    Forgive me Scott but your analysis is not big on mentioning Balance Sheets or Income Statements, I was taught in Finance School that is the 1st place to start any analysis. What say you? I appreciate the obvious time you spent on this report, now I have to wonder which side your bread is buttered. You cannot possibly do this much work for altruistic reasons. Does AGNC have you in their back pocket? Just saying.
    If AGNC's portfolio changes daily, then their derivatives must change hourly or by the minute. So far they have been a complete failure w/derivatives offsetting losses as the stock has gone from high 30's to the very low 20's. What say you?
    I did like you said and skipped over to the conclusions and found none except maybe the $645 million figure that you then quickly hedge by saying things change daily.
    Feb 27 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I: Estimating Remaining Distributions [View article]
    Let me think about that, presently I do not see myself holding this dog past where it will hunt. Presently I am thinking they have overstated the costs of shutting down the trust and there may well be some premium left at the end.
    Feb 11 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I: Estimating Remaining Distributions [View article]
    In regards to Schwab only having 14,000 shares in customer accounts; I have 21,500 shares of WHX in my acct. with Schwab. I have been wanting to sell covered calls on them but no buyers yet and for small premiums. I had planned to get out of WHX this summer, but may do it sooner per information in this article. This is something I rarely do, trade on any info in a SA article. I have a feeling that the price of oil is headed upward by tensions in the Mideast and general inflation. WHX has been good to me but I am not married to it. I suspect that the .55 dividend is a return of capital as much as profits. In the words of the greatest philosopher in the world Doris Day "que sera' sera'".
    Feb 11 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Everything Is Crystal Clear [View article]
    Great article, my first time reading you but I will be back. Title of article and content more confusing than ever, nothing much to hang your hat on. I like your covered call strategy as I employ it myself, you are so smart when you agree with me. You might want to consider covered calls on some high yielding mREITs or Ponzi's as I like to call them. If you catch them in their early years they can be profitable, but always keep an eye on the door, for when things get chaotic. They love to tell you about their hedges and swaptions and such but no mention of Balance Sheets or Income Statements. At any rate you can do well with them if you do not buy the hype and realize they are just like a Ponzi in that the guys in early and out do very well, late to the party you get left holding the bag.
    If you buy Chesapeake hoping Ichan will help you out then I wish you well. By the time you hear what Ichan is doing it is finished. It is the nature of his business to talk buy while he is selling, you and I are not on the inside, and CNBC is complicit in these shenanigans.
    Feb 9 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Conference Call Turned Circus Act [View article]


    OK color me stupid, I do not get it. Taking my money to buy other folks stock seems nefarious at best. Toss around some finance doubletalk and hedging to confuse the simple folk and race to bankruptcy as fast as possible and start over with new stock. If Cain slew Able then this Kain is trying to slay AGNC. At some point we will have to release Bernie Madoff and apologize, because these guys make him look insignificant and small. To my way of thinking this is the height; no the zenith; no the very quintessence in ridicularity.
    On all levels this move appears brazen and manifest in it's apparently raised middle finger to shareholders. I love all of the talk about BV and hedges that no one can decipher as it changes hourly. Talk of Balance Sheets and Income Statements are never spoken of as this business is so "sophisticated" that it takes geniuses to even understand it.
    How does this pissy little manager get income in the millions as the stock price plummets 40%? What happened to all of these hedges we pay him to implement to keep us safe from 40% losses?
    Whenever folks tell me about TAXES or algorithms the hair on the back of my neck stands up. Evidently AGNC is selling tax advantages on government agency paper that have something to do with houses and amortization. Why does the government need my money when they can print up or digitally create all of the "money" they want or need? AGNC "pays" outsized relatively safe dividends at a time when "Mr. Market" says returns should be somewhere south of 3%. Is "'Mr. Market" wrong or has Mr. Kain found a honeypot of money that no one else can access? Methinks neither. Incidentally those outsized dividends were accompanied with quarterly issues of more stock at higher prices.
    Feb 8 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    I am not worried about how these authors make their money, more power to them. I usually do not read them at all or 1st paragraph to see if anything of merit is there. I am much more interested what the folks who own the stock have to say. Oftentimes I only read the comments. For your edification Schwab guys are worth what you pay them which is nothing for their advice. In the case of WMC they said it most certainly would be a cash deal, when it came in it was mostly a stock dividend. I am not too disappointed because the stock price they gave me was lower than the today price, giving me a little more account value. Hooray for the little guy. I am still bullish on WMC as a mREIT. I tend to think they will appreciate for at least another year, then the price should begin to tank like AGNC and NLY.
    Jan 30 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    Dear Rok, Thank you so much. Schwab claims that this will be a cash deal, I am thinking schwab has some kind of deal with WMC. I expect to find out in the morning as Schwab has started holding dividends until midnight on date payable. I am thankful to have folks like you watching my back. We are all in this together. I noticed WMC went north of $15.00 today just after I sold covered calls at $15.00 last week. In the words of the world's greatest philosopher Doris Day 'que sera' sera'.
    Jan 28 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    Dear Rip, you are so correct. Thursday I wrote 215 covered calls on 3-22-14 and got an extra $9,000.00 cash. I did this also in Nov. and got a little over $6,000.00 for Jan.18 2014. Granted the march calls are a little closer to strike price. You guys may want to consider this route.
    Jan 25 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    Dear Rok I appreciate this info ever so much. We are all in this together. When I call Schwab they assure me it is all cash, so I guess they kept the election notice and will make up the difference. HA HA.
    Jan 25 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Time To Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    I have a right smart of WMC and have not received anything from the company saying how the $2.35 will be distributed next week. So far I have done alright with the covered calls, cannot really complain yet. I have no idea about BV on WMC or any other mREIT. I do not trust their figures on BV or revenues or off balance sheet financing or anything else. I have a theory that these mREITs are a little like Ponzi's or Pyramid schemes. The early investors do OK but the guys late to the dance get punished severely per Bimini Cap et al. Just saying that is what it looks like to me. Love early dividends hate late price drops. Understand the Game and play accordingly.
    Jan 24 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Avoid Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    Dear Author: This reminds me of when I was in Finance class in college. Fifty page reports on a company filled with graphs and charts. Then run the ratios and never admit anything wrong, because teachers love to make it sound like all of your work is for naught. Find a reason to buy or sell and stick to it. NLY has been in the business of mREITs longer than anyone, but even they did not see the mass exodus out of their stock last May. People are still buying houses not the 6% unemployed but the other 94% working. I am going to guess that NLY is still on the correct side of the amortization schedule. I think that the federal government is still guaranteeing interest and principal on these loans erasing most of the default risk. A lot of positives so why has the Market not realized this and rewarded shareholders? Management is rewarding themselves handsomely while the stock price is going down. At it's essence investing is a trust. Break the trust and all bets are off. As for me I do not trust these guys' numbers anymore. That is just me. As long as the judges let them get to bankruptcy court dissolve the old stock and start fresh with new stock, we are all in a race to bankruptcy court. Call me cynical.
    Jan 15 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Javelin's Downgrade: Sell The News Or Seize The Opportunity? [View article]
    I give you kudos for writing about something that you own. So many of the authors on SA have lots of opinions with no skin in the game. Also you address the folks running JMI as having bad records in the past with Bimini and ARR. Very important to me anyways. JMI pays monthly dividends so you get the bonus of more compounding over time that can be huge. I am a little concerned about your net assets value calculations. How do you assess the off balance sheet financing going on at all times? How do you assess the swaptions and other hedges in their portfolio? How many brother-in-laws and cousins are on the payroll or selling the swaptions and hedges to JMI? If they sold extra stock last year allegedly to grow, then when they buy back stock wouldn't it be to shrink the company? Would you rather be in a growing company or a shrinking one? Just asking. Also if that is your wife in the photo above you really did marry way above your station in life. You are doing the Lord's work keep it up.
    Jan 13 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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