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  • Armour Residential REIT: So What?  [View article]
    ARR has a man with a hoodie and a scythe following it around. You can choose to ignore the stench of death but he will not be denied. In the long run ARR management is in a hurry to get to bankruptcy court so they can start over with a new IPO. A la Bimini Capital. You are being taxed double on about a third of that dividend. About a third of it is return of capital not earnings. I got out a couple years ago at around $7.40. I do not feel any richer but I sure saved some $. They are still on all of my lists so I follow them. This situation can be compared to the Dallas Cowboys. At first look it looks like a tragedy to lose Romo. I say it is fortuitous. Look at all of the 4th quarter fumbles and interceptions you will not endure now.
    Sep 28, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Plain Truth About Armour Residential REIT  [View article]
    ARR is to capital as ebola is to life. They are both destroyers. ARR management cannot wait to get into bankruptcy court so they can dismiss these greedy shareholders and start all over with new stock and new plans for shareholder destruction. If you think not try to contact shareholder relations. Those who claim there is money to be made on the short side of ARR, forget someone has to be on the other side. They will require some kind of premium. ARR's balance sheet is a mockery of the accounting profession. The managers manage to lose money and give themselves a raise, only in America. My dad used to say "those who can do a job, will: those who can't become teachers. And those who cannot teach become managers."
    Sep 5, 2015. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Blood Is Flowing: Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation  [View article]
    CMWF; you may want to consider in the WMC case that a lot of folks buy it at this price and sell it before x-date. Giving up the .64 dividend and making over $2 on price. If you read comments you would see it more than you'd think. I am amazed that you keep lowering your buy in price and then pat yourself on the back when the price tanks as if your articles were driving it down. Methinks you value yourself and your predictions too highly. My understanding of these things has to do with supply and demand. More folks wanting to sell than buy drives price down. Since you have none how could you affect price other than lying about the stock and changing your lies every time the price moves down. I am sorry if that is a little harsh, but until you have a little skin in the game I just consider the source. Thank You
    Aug 11, 2015. 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Let The Digging Begin  [View article]
    cubeless. I made up my mind not to get whipsawed again because of panic in the market. I still believe WMC will be above $15 by ex-date. I don't look for any rate hikes in Sept. or Dec. from the FED. China devalued their currency today, we have a better chance of a rate lowering than a rate hike. Takes a cast iron stomach to hold on after losing $100K in the last month and a half on paper. I take some solace in the words of Rudyard Kipling "IF".
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Sustainability Analysis For Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation - Part 1  [View article]
    Thank you Milbank for stating the obvious, after losing a dollar per share over the last two days. Like I said stocks fluctuate, that is what they do. If you do not have a cast iron stomach stocks are not for you. I still have not received a margin call yet. I looked at the possibility of a margin call and left myself a little breathing room. As for me being an idiot you may be correct but only time will tell. I have been called a lot worse, in addition to a cast iron stomach I am pretty much thick skinned about these sort of things. The last I checked WMC was near about the only mREIT traded on the NYSE with 1/3 of shares held by institutions. They are the only mREIT covering their .64x4=2.56 dividend with 3.168 EPS. WMC has been very good to me the last 3 years.
    Aug 2, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Sustainability Analysis For Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation - Part 1  [View article]
    Again I say if you do not like a stock then change the way you derive their figures until you get the result you want. I do not know what CWM owns or manages, but I would love to do a hatchet job on their holdings and see how they like it. Fortunately these negative analyses affect the stock price negatively for a very short time. All I really need to know about CWM is that he loves ARR and dislikes WMC for some reason, Mr. Market has a way of correcting these misconceptions with prices in the long run.
    Jul 31, 2015. 03:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital: Can It Get Any Easier?  [View article]
    The massacre in mREITs this week was because of rumors of interest rate hikes. mREITs react like bonds to interest rate hikes. This is the 6th or 7th time interest rates were surely going up except they didn't. Money is a commodity nowadays. I hope you have noticed what has been happening to commodities lately. With 17 trillion or however much the government admits to, the supply has outstripped demand by a huge margin. This would be more dramatic if the FED was not buying up our deficit. Interest rates are being jawboned upward but until this oversupply of dollars is straightened out the result has to be lower rates. Now if you have figured a way to erase Supply and Demand economics we are in a deflationary era until Russia or China starts a war and demand ramps up. Face it folks we are in a War Economy and until we have a big one like WWII we will have permanent recessions. Of course we could go back to the space race and get about 10X our investment back. We could cure Cancer but the remedy is so much more lucrative. We could light up Sub Saharan Africa and bring those folks into the 21st century, but they are poor and cannot get their act together. There are a lot of other things we could do, but our leaders are bought and paid for by the War Industry.
    That is the big picture, what to do with these bogus mREITs like Bimini and Orchid. These guys are wolves in financial clothing, not financiers in Bankers clothing. Putting WMC in the same sector as these guys is fiction. AGNC is head and shoulders above these guys. Bernie Madoff is head and shoulders above these guys.
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Let The Digging Begin  [View article]
    Prices fluctuate, that is what they do. If the price of WMC goes down on Monday it will surely go back up if the value is there, or stay down if the value is not there. This author is very skilled at obfuscation, if the facts do not align with his assertions change the definitions of the facts. If you do not like the way BV is reported change the way you figure BV. If you do not like the way EPS is reported change the way you figure it. I must say as I was reading the article my mind was screaming hatchet job. As I am open to all views, the price did drop somewhat friday and late thursday. I try to take these things in stride and with a grain of salt, having been whipsawed a couple times on WMC. If you do not have a cast iron stomach then WMC is not for you. I don't know the guys running WMC personally but they are part of the Western Asset family which is highly thought of by Morningstar. Two years ago they gave me an additional dividend at the years end. Do they do things I don't like, yes. They have cut dividends a couple of times when I thought it should have stayed the same or raised it. They are high as a kite on their abilities in the arena of derivitives. I think not. They wait till the last second to declare their dividend and ex-dates, kind of like they have something to hide. I am all about transparency. I am still all in on WMC. Time will tell.
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Let The Digging Begin  [View article]
    I have been in and out of WMC for the last 2 or 3 years. I am presently all in on WMC even to the point of being fully margined. As near as I can figure WMC and their umbrella company have done well by not believing the false rumors of interest rate hikes by the Fed. I have an undergraduate degree in Finance and I have never heard of drop income or some of these other derivatives. Suffice to say I understand derivatives and wish WMC would get out of the derivatives business as the Government insures these mortgages.

    I did notice yesterday that Carl Ichan thinks there is not enough liquidity in these derivatives and ETFs. Now I am more worried about liquidity and being able to get out of my position when the sh!t hits the fan. Greece's stock market and banks are still closed. What will we do if that happens here? Just saying.

    China drops 30% and half their companies stop trading. The little guy gets messed over I assume. If that can happen to China I think it can happen here as long as greedy bankers keep getting away with their larcenous ways. The banks still haven't written down their nonperforming assets from 2008.
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR's Thorough Reporting Provides For Clear Analysis  [View article]
    ARR is the EBOLA of investments, anything it touches dies. It is run by crooks, monthly dividends, reverse stock splits, and selling preferreds will not change these facts. They are in a race to bankruptcy court so they can change their name and issue new stock and start the game again. Calling them a Ponzi offends Bernie Madoff and others. I am sure Bernie et al are embarrassed to even think ARR is being lumped in with them. I feel as though my limited vocabulary is being too charitable to ARR. I hope the hottest part of HELL is being reserved for these ARR guys. The SEC is a disgrace to not shut this down and arrest these guys.
    Jul 11, 2015. 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Meaning Of No: Initial Thoughts  [View article]
    In the mid to late seventies I had a spendthrift wife who ran up bills on several credit cards. I realized it was my obligation to pay them off. I took on extra jobs after I called each creditor to explain what was going on and to see if I could get some help from them on interest rates. The one I remember was Sears would not work with me at all. I assured them that they would be last to get paid off. In situations like this the borrower should show some humility. The loaner should show some recognition of poor credit judgement. Greece and the rest of Europe should realize mistakes were made and move forward instead of threatening collapse of the whole system, benefiting no one. I assume Germany thinks it might be OK to invade Greece over this debt to stop Italy and Spain from trying to be reasonable. That is the only reason I can see for their intractable stand. If Greece thinks austerity is bad now wait to see what Germany has for them. Hey Greece you like that Parthenon how about we take it off your hands and rebuild it in Berlin. You get the idea.
    This whole thing looks more like Cyprus than Iceland, Ireland or Sears. If the global banking system is interdependent we may be in for a rocky ride, but after everyone resets their prices for credit and equity, the system will adjust. One day I will explain how this whole situation is like the Code of Hammurabi, but for the sake of brevity I must get back to sleep.
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is ARMOUR Residential's Turnaround Going?  [View article]
    ARR This dog won't hunt. Don't waste time or money wishing it would.
    Jul 5, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital And The Misunderstood Hedges  [View article]
    Orchid, Armour, and Bimini are plain and simple straight up Ponzi schemes, even more than Amway or that vitamin supplement company. Caveat emptor. Colorado you know this better than I do. I can only surmise that you have some kind of position on this. The only thing misunderstood about Orchid why you disregarded the fleas on this DOG.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation And My Bearish Interest Rate Assessment  [View article]
    1st let me say I am all in on WMC, even to the point of fully margined. I have said all along that these mREITs are impossible to read day to day. Even though I try and have gotten whipsawed in the process. WMC sells at a small premium to book value at a time when all of the other mREITs sell at a large discount to book value. Their assets to liabilities have increased parabolicly, while others have decreased of late. I know it is the popular thing to do, having all of these derivitives. I would prefer they concentrate on better assets. I suspect their balance sheet will bite them in the ass sooner or later. Right now WMC is about the only one with EPS greater than the dividend. Let's talk interest rates, the whole world is lowering their rates how can we possibly raise rates and be competitive? We seem to be in a controlled state of deflation recently. No one knows what the big picture or the end result of this will be.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is ARMOUR Residential's Turnaround Going?  [View article]
    I buy your books, I pay for your schooling, and all you think about is screwing the teacher. Trading at a discount to book value sounds like the best of all worlds. I can't remember the last time the dividend was less than EPS. That difference has to come from somewhere. They are giving you a return of capital and calling it a dividend, this is why BV has continued to fall so precipitously. You can continue to put your head in the sand and ignore the figures, it is your money to do with as you please, but track record is a good indicator of future performance. If you get into bed with a dog you will get fleas AKA the Bimini fiasco to those who thought like you. Nothing personal, I hope you get bailed out by QE or some other such scheme, but I don't see it. Good luck and do your Due Diligence.
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment