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  • Orchid Island Capital: Can It Get Any Easier? [View article]
    The massacre in mREITs this week was because of rumors of interest rate hikes. mREITs react like bonds to interest rate hikes. This is the 6th or 7th time interest rates were surely going up except they didn't. Money is a commodity nowadays. I hope you have noticed what has been happening to commodities lately. With 17 trillion or however much the government admits to, the supply has outstripped demand by a huge margin. This would be more dramatic if the FED was not buying up our deficit. Interest rates are being jawboned upward but until this oversupply of dollars is straightened out the result has to be lower rates. Now if you have figured a way to erase Supply and Demand economics we are in a deflationary era until Russia or China starts a war and demand ramps up. Face it folks we are in a War Economy and until we have a big one like WWII we will have permanent recessions. Of course we could go back to the space race and get about 10X our investment back. We could cure Cancer but the remedy is so much more lucrative. We could light up Sub Saharan Africa and bring those folks into the 21st century, but they are poor and cannot get their act together. There are a lot of other things we could do, but our leaders are bought and paid for by the War Industry.
    That is the big picture, what to do with these bogus mREITs like Bimini and Orchid. These guys are wolves in financial clothing, not financiers in Bankers clothing. Putting WMC in the same sector as these guys is fiction. AGNC is head and shoulders above these guys. Bernie Madoff is head and shoulders above these guys.
    Jul 26, 2015. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Let The Digging Begin [View article]
    Prices fluctuate, that is what they do. If the price of WMC goes down on Monday it will surely go back up if the value is there, or stay down if the value is not there. This author is very skilled at obfuscation, if the facts do not align with his assertions change the definitions of the facts. If you do not like the way BV is reported change the way you figure BV. If you do not like the way EPS is reported change the way you figure it. I must say as I was reading the article my mind was screaming hatchet job. As I am open to all views, the price did drop somewhat friday and late thursday. I try to take these things in stride and with a grain of salt, having been whipsawed a couple times on WMC. If you do not have a cast iron stomach then WMC is not for you. I don't know the guys running WMC personally but they are part of the Western Asset family which is highly thought of by Morningstar. Two years ago they gave me an additional dividend at the years end. Do they do things I don't like, yes. They have cut dividends a couple of times when I thought it should have stayed the same or raised it. They are high as a kite on their abilities in the arena of derivitives. I think not. They wait till the last second to declare their dividend and ex-dates, kind of like they have something to hide. I am all about transparency. I am still all in on WMC. Time will tell.
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Let The Digging Begin [View article]
    I have been in and out of WMC for the last 2 or 3 years. I am presently all in on WMC even to the point of being fully margined. As near as I can figure WMC and their umbrella company have done well by not believing the false rumors of interest rate hikes by the Fed. I have an undergraduate degree in Finance and I have never heard of drop income or some of these other derivatives. Suffice to say I understand derivatives and wish WMC would get out of the derivatives business as the Government insures these mortgages.

    I did notice yesterday that Carl Ichan thinks there is not enough liquidity in these derivatives and ETFs. Now I am more worried about liquidity and being able to get out of my position when the sh!t hits the fan. Greece's stock market and banks are still closed. What will we do if that happens here? Just saying.

    China drops 30% and half their companies stop trading. The little guy gets messed over I assume. If that can happen to China I think it can happen here as long as greedy bankers keep getting away with their larcenous ways. The banks still haven't written down their nonperforming assets from 2008.
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR's Thorough Reporting Provides For Clear Analysis [View article]
    ARR is the EBOLA of investments, anything it touches dies. It is run by crooks, monthly dividends, reverse stock splits, and selling preferreds will not change these facts. They are in a race to bankruptcy court so they can change their name and issue new stock and start the game again. Calling them a Ponzi offends Bernie Madoff and others. I am sure Bernie et al are embarrassed to even think ARR is being lumped in with them. I feel as though my limited vocabulary is being too charitable to ARR. I hope the hottest part of HELL is being reserved for these ARR guys. The SEC is a disgrace to not shut this down and arrest these guys.
    Jul 11, 2015. 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Meaning Of No: Initial Thoughts [View article]
    In the mid to late seventies I had a spendthrift wife who ran up bills on several credit cards. I realized it was my obligation to pay them off. I took on extra jobs after I called each creditor to explain what was going on and to see if I could get some help from them on interest rates. The one I remember was Sears would not work with me at all. I assured them that they would be last to get paid off. In situations like this the borrower should show some humility. The loaner should show some recognition of poor credit judgement. Greece and the rest of Europe should realize mistakes were made and move forward instead of threatening collapse of the whole system, benefiting no one. I assume Germany thinks it might be OK to invade Greece over this debt to stop Italy and Spain from trying to be reasonable. That is the only reason I can see for their intractable stand. If Greece thinks austerity is bad now wait to see what Germany has for them. Hey Greece you like that Parthenon how about we take it off your hands and rebuild it in Berlin. You get the idea.
    This whole thing looks more like Cyprus than Iceland, Ireland or Sears. If the global banking system is interdependent we may be in for a rocky ride, but after everyone resets their prices for credit and equity, the system will adjust. One day I will explain how this whole situation is like the Code of Hammurabi, but for the sake of brevity I must get back to sleep.
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is ARMOUR Residential's Turnaround Going? [View article]
    ARR This dog won't hunt. Don't waste time or money wishing it would.
    Jul 5, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital And The Misunderstood Hedges [View article]
    Orchid, Armour, and Bimini are plain and simple straight up Ponzi schemes, even more than Amway or that vitamin supplement company. Caveat emptor. Colorado you know this better than I do. I can only surmise that you have some kind of position on this. The only thing misunderstood about Orchid why you disregarded the fleas on this DOG.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation And My Bearish Interest Rate Assessment [View article]
    1st let me say I am all in on WMC, even to the point of fully margined. I have said all along that these mREITs are impossible to read day to day. Even though I try and have gotten whipsawed in the process. WMC sells at a small premium to book value at a time when all of the other mREITs sell at a large discount to book value. Their assets to liabilities have increased parabolicly, while others have decreased of late. I know it is the popular thing to do, having all of these derivitives. I would prefer they concentrate on better assets. I suspect their balance sheet will bite them in the ass sooner or later. Right now WMC is about the only one with EPS greater than the dividend. Let's talk interest rates, the whole world is lowering their rates how can we possibly raise rates and be competitive? We seem to be in a controlled state of deflation recently. No one knows what the big picture or the end result of this will be.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is ARMOUR Residential's Turnaround Going? [View article]
    I buy your books, I pay for your schooling, and all you think about is screwing the teacher. Trading at a discount to book value sounds like the best of all worlds. I can't remember the last time the dividend was less than EPS. That difference has to come from somewhere. They are giving you a return of capital and calling it a dividend, this is why BV has continued to fall so precipitously. You can continue to put your head in the sand and ignore the figures, it is your money to do with as you please, but track record is a good indicator of future performance. If you get into bed with a dog you will get fleas AKA the Bimini fiasco to those who thought like you. Nothing personal, I hope you get bailed out by QE or some other such scheme, but I don't see it. Good luck and do your Due Diligence.
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grexit! [View article]
    Here is my understanding of the Grexit. Germany and Merkel have been at the forefront of these negotiations because the Duestche Bank is holding so much of Greece's debt. D Bank is hanging on by a thread and default by Greece would put them in Bankruptcy. No one knows where the dominoes would stop falling. It will be quick and very ugly. Greece and D Bank are already having huge runs on their liquidity. The best scenario would be both sides admit mistakes and take a haircut. To be worked out by middle management. Lots of pain for everyone. DBank would still need a bailout as would Greece. As I see it Greece has an unemployment problem instead of an austerity problem. Germany and America have relatively low unemployment and have been exporting their unemployment problems to the 3rd world causing regional wars. Twenty somethings with no job or prospects are very receptive to the ravings of religious zealots as seen in the middle east. If you want to find the roots of problems follow the money. It would be nice if we all could just get along but you cannot force folks to get along when they are being persecuted.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Residential REIT: A Broken mREIT [View article]
    The last time I checked on shorting ARR the transaction costs and premiums made it prohibitive. I sold out completely a few years ago in the low 7's and have yet to regret it. At the time all I could see was Ponzi scheme. Bernie only paid out 10%. One thing I know about Ponzi's is the early investors do alright if they do not get greedy and stay too long. So I started watching IPO's and found WMC which is still paying and covering a strong dividend. Only mistakes have been when fear and volatility caused me to sell and regret it. So I have been in and out of WMC the last few years. It has been the investors pet and the shorts regret during that time. Starting to look for a new vehicle as WMC is starting look like it is getting long in the tooth, and I fear problems with balance sheet of WMC will be forthcoming soon. They have started cutting the dividend recently and methinks Western Asset their parent company has started to read their own press clippings after being voted #1 fixed asset fund last year by Morningstar. If you are looking to recoup some ARR losses you could do a lot worse than WMC. I used to like foreign companies for their dividends but the rest of the world is having banking problems, which translate to runs on banks and diminished liquidity. The main reason the strength of the $ and increased inflows of money from overseas. Greece and Duetche Bank are the tipping points, much like Lehman Bros. in 2008.
    Jun 21, 2015. 06:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Residential REIT: A Broken mREIT [View article]
    Reverse stock split, what a laugh. Activity for activities sake is not adding value to ARR. Monthly dividends do not add any value either. Raising dividends miniscule amounts sound like value being added, but really? When income doesn't cover dividends the shortfall can be considered return of capital. Calling return of capital a dividend means you are paying taxes twice. Once when you earn the money twice when it is returned as a dividend. These guys at ARR are to be commended for dreaming up new ways to confound the public shareholders and make it seem that they have are real fiduciaries of shareholders money. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have no explanation as to how these guys have stayed out of jail, only that they are Bankers in the loosest sense of the word. Apparently CRIME does pay very well when you have friends in high places. All I can do is try to shine a little light in dark places and repeat caveat emptor. Ending for the sake of brevity I will quote the greatest philosopher of the 20th century, Doris Day as she sang "que sera' sera'".
    Jun 20, 2015. 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. And The LIBOR Rate Curve [View article]
    The deal as near as I can figure with Greece and Germany and not the whole of Europe has to do with Deutshe Bank holding so much Greek debt. Deutshe Bank seems to be following Lehmans Bros. into bankruptcy. Personally if I was Merkle I would have Germany invading Greece on the table if they cannot commit to austerity. Since Greece is still grieving over WWII treatment at the hands of the Germans, they may prefer austerity to seizure. The Greeks have become accustomed to generous benefits from the government at the expense of their bondholders. Not good and as always will not last into infinity. Someone has to pay the piper. The time for kicking the can down the road is about to run out. Some are afraid of driving Greece into the arms of the Russians. They would be trading a bitch for a witch. Ask Cuba how it has worked for them. I could go on but rest and relaxation are calling me.


    Jun 13, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Is Not Lost For ARMOUR Residential [View article]
    The original shareholders in Bimini are wishing they could get some of those apples and oranges as they came out with nothing, while Bimini reissued stock and is back in business. On the face of it sounds illegal, but the NY brokerages seeing huge fees agreed to the deal with the regulators in their pockets.
    Jun 2, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Is Not Lost For ARMOUR Residential [View article]
    At best ARR is a Ponzi scheme. At worst it is a straight up SCAM and FRAUD. Presently ARR is in a hurry to get into bankruptcy court so they can disavow all stockholders and start over with a new IPO. That is what they did with Bimini and all signs point to ARR being the same. Caveat Emptor. If you do not believe it try calling their Investor Relations and see where that gets you. Those still holding ARR have my sincerest apologies, but if you think you are going to get bailed out in the future, the Real Estate market is rebounding but these guys book value is still decreasing. I live in Memphis and I have a nice bridge over the Mississippi River I would like to sell you while you are waiting on ARR to pay off. At best you are getting a return of your own money in the form of dividends so you are being taxed twice with ARR. I feel guilty for painting such a rosy picture of ARR because the real story is so much bleaker.
    May 31, 2015. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment