Pater Tenebrarum's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/83330/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432651/comments?source=feed#comment-18839721 18839721 Abe couldn't let that stand, after all, he's heard for years how horrible the evil deflation was. ]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 07:38:37 -0400 Abe couldn't let that stand, after all, he's heard for years how horrible the evil deflation was. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1375151/comments?source=feed#comment-18140861 18140861 If Krugman actually made arguments involving intrinsic value, it only serves as additional proof that he's not an economist but little more than a political hack. I will never understand how the Nobel committee could demean its prize by giving it to him....probably the prize has become a contrary indicator. ]]> Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:36:54 -0400 If Krugman actually made arguments involving intrinsic value, it only serves as additional proof that he's not an economist but little more than a political hack. I will never understand how the Nobel committee could demean its prize by giving it to him....probably the prize has become a contrary indicator. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1364861/comments?source=feed#comment-18056561 18056561 Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:09:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1325291/comments?source=feed#comment-17377961 17377961 Mon, 08 Apr 2013 19:15:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316401/comments?source=feed#comment-17183431 17183431 Wed, 03 Apr 2013 16:31:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1290271/comments?source=feed#comment-16679601 16679601 Fri, 22 Mar 2013 18:36:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1290271/comments?source=feed#comment-16679481 16679481 Fri, 22 Mar 2013 18:32:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285751/comments?source=feed#comment-16612041 16612041 Historically it has been observed that an inflationary policy can be pursued for extended periods of time without the general level of prices increasing much (some prices rise, some remain the same, some even fall...), as the public often tends to increase its demand for money in parallel with the increase in its supply - after all, inflationary policy is pursued mainly during times of economic weakness, and low economic confidence will tend to increase the demand for cash balances. However, if the authorities do not stop the inflationary policy, the public one day wakes up to this fact. Then the demand for money can decline rapidly. Note that in all historical hyperinflation events, the actual phase during which the underlying currency system broke down was a very short term, non-linear event. The usual progression is from 'no notable price increases' to 'notable, but still shrugged off price increases' to 'very notable price increases explained as a temporary necessity' to 'collapse of the currency's value'. The final phase in this progression is actually the by far shortest and often happens in the space of a few months. ]]> Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:48:02 -0400 Historically it has been observed that an inflationary policy can be pursued for extended periods of time without the general level of prices increasing much (some prices rise, some remain the same, some even fall...), as the public often tends to increase its demand for money in parallel with the increase in its supply - after all, inflationary policy is pursued mainly during times of economic weakness, and low economic confidence will tend to increase the demand for cash balances. However, if the authorities do not stop the inflationary policy, the public one day wakes up to this fact. Then the demand for money can decline rapidly. Note that in all historical hyperinflation events, the actual phase during which the underlying currency system broke down was a very short term, non-linear event. The usual progression is from 'no notable price increases' to 'notable, but still shrugged off price increases' to 'very notable price increases explained as a temporary necessity' to 'collapse of the currency's value'. The final phase in this progression is actually the by far shortest and often happens in the space of a few months. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1288281/comments?source=feed#comment-16611221 16611221 http://bit.ly/YIqmSZ
(I googled this after reading your comment, since I haven't experienced the issue I was curious). ]]> Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:34:08 -0400 http://bit.ly/YIqmSZ
(I googled this after reading your comment, since I haven't experienced the issue I was curious). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1287581/comments?source=feed#comment-16610441 16610441 However, I agree that treasuries are a buy....t-bonds are once again the most hated market in the world this year (the Barron's 'smart money' poll had a 93% bearish consensus on bonds, the highest ever; they've been dead wrong on treasuries for years). A big deflation scare could see the SPX fall quite a bit, but I assure you there won't be any actual deflation (i.e., negative money supply growth). ]]> Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:19:48 -0400 However, I agree that treasuries are a buy....t-bonds are once again the most hated market in the world this year (the Barron's 'smart money' poll had a 93% bearish consensus on bonds, the highest ever; they've been dead wrong on treasuries for years). A big deflation scare could see the SPX fall quite a bit, but I assure you there won't be any actual deflation (i.e., negative money supply growth). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1228651/comments?source=feed#comment-15607321 15607321 Wed, 27 Feb 2013 19:48:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152091/comments?source=feed#comment-14627341 14627341 Tue, 05 Feb 2013 20:59:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1111141/comments?source=feed#comment-13754171 13754171 short interest ratio of 1, which is very low, but it has actually been even lower at times over the past two years (i.e., it takes one day's worth of average trading volume to cover all outstanding shorts).
Put/call open interest ratio: 0.67 (67 puts outstanding for every 100 calls), which is actually lower than 90% of all readings over the past 52 weeks.
Wall Street ratings: 32 'strong buys', 4 'buys', 2 'holds, zero 'sells' (this is dangerous, as it can lead to downgrades, see today's downgrade by Nomura, which helped drag the stock over 3% lower, breaking the $500 support level in the process).
So the fact of the matter is that only very few people are actually betting on AAPL going down - they are vastly outnumbered by the longs, in both the stock and its options. And yet, the stock has clearly entered a strong downtrend.
Having said that, the hurdle it must now climb on occasion of the earnings report is no longer as high as it once was, due to lowered expectations. So the earnings release could produce a bounce based on that consideration and the fact that it looks 'oversold'. Nevertheless, if I were long the stock (discl.: I have no position in it at all, neither long nor short), all these data points would worry me , because they indicate extremely stubborn bullishness in the face of very negative price action. ]]> Tue, 15 Jan 2013 18:41:14 -0500 short interest ratio of 1, which is very low, but it has actually been even lower at times over the past two years (i.e., it takes one day's worth of average trading volume to cover all outstanding shorts).
Put/call open interest ratio: 0.67 (67 puts outstanding for every 100 calls), which is actually lower than 90% of all readings over the past 52 weeks.
Wall Street ratings: 32 'strong buys', 4 'buys', 2 'holds, zero 'sells' (this is dangerous, as it can lead to downgrades, see today's downgrade by Nomura, which helped drag the stock over 3% lower, breaking the $500 support level in the process).
So the fact of the matter is that only very few people are actually betting on AAPL going down - they are vastly outnumbered by the longs, in both the stock and its options. And yet, the stock has clearly entered a strong downtrend.
Having said that, the hurdle it must now climb on occasion of the earnings report is no longer as high as it once was, due to lowered expectations. So the earnings release could produce a bounce based on that consideration and the fact that it looks 'oversold'. Nevertheless, if I were long the stock (discl.: I have no position in it at all, neither long nor short), all these data points would worry me , because they indicate extremely stubborn bullishness in the face of very negative price action. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1110541/comments?source=feed#comment-13753371 13753371 However, had socialism been adopted globally, as e.g. the Fourth International had planned, then the division of labor and with it the entire economy would have broken down into small autarkic units within a few years, living from hand to mouth, scraping along close to the subsistence level. We would definitely NOT have conversations about 'smart
phones'. :)]]> Tue, 15 Jan 2013 18:17:40 -0500 However, had socialism been adopted globally, as e.g. the Fourth International had planned, then the division of labor and with it the entire economy would have broken down into small autarkic units within a few years, living from hand to mouth, scraping along close to the subsistence level. We would definitely NOT have conversations about 'smart
phones'. :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1109061/comments?source=feed#comment-13709511 13709511 Mon, 14 Jan 2013 20:13:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1097031/comments?source=feed#comment-13559581 13559581 Most economic statistics put out by the government have only one rationale: they are used as a justification for government meddling in the economy.]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2013 16:59:17 -0500 Most economic statistics put out by the government have only one rationale: they are used as a justification for government meddling in the economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1101351/comments?source=feed#comment-13559191 13559191 Like man scarcity and fear promotions, the AGW theory itself is largely a psychological or social mood phenomenon. There is actually no debate that the world's climate has been in a warming trend for a good while. The debate is over its causes, and whether human activity is to blame. Since warming and cooling cycles have occurred in the past well before there was an industrial civilization, we seem to be witnessing a natural cycle. Moreover, civilization and life itself depend on a warm climate. Woe betide us if the cycle were to turn into a cooling cycle again, as will inevitably happen. Then we will have a real problem. Warming on the other hand should be welcomed.]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2013 16:44:42 -0500 Like man scarcity and fear promotions, the AGW theory itself is largely a psychological or social mood phenomenon. There is actually no debate that the world's climate has been in a warming trend for a good while. The debate is over its causes, and whether human activity is to blame. Since warming and cooling cycles have occurred in the past well before there was an industrial civilization, we seem to be witnessing a natural cycle. Moreover, civilization and life itself depend on a warm climate. Woe betide us if the cycle were to turn into a cooling cycle again, as will inevitably happen. Then we will have a real problem. Warming on the other hand should be welcomed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1097031/comments?source=feed#comment-13416271 13416271 1. absent the increase in the money supply, prices would have been lower than they are (we just don't know by how much)
2. relative prices in the economy will be distorted by increases in the money supply as money is not neutral, but enters the economy at discrete points. This is ultimately the cause for capital malinvestment, as the distorted price structure makes economic activities seemingly profitable that would not be assessed as such had the price revolution not occurred. Thus, an increase in the money supply leads to capital consumption.
3. the fact that money is not neutral also implies that increases in the money supply redistribute wealth to the early from the later receivers of the newly created money. We do not all benefit from increases in the money supply - only a small minority does. ]]> Mon, 07 Jan 2013 18:59:47 -0500 1. absent the increase in the money supply, prices would have been lower than they are (we just don't know by how much)
2. relative prices in the economy will be distorted by increases in the money supply as money is not neutral, but enters the economy at discrete points. This is ultimately the cause for capital malinvestment, as the distorted price structure makes economic activities seemingly profitable that would not be assessed as such had the price revolution not occurred. Thus, an increase in the money supply leads to capital consumption.
3. the fact that money is not neutral also implies that increases in the money supply redistribute wealth to the early from the later receivers of the newly created money. We do not all benefit from increases in the money supply - only a small minority does. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1087121/comments?source=feed#comment-13163371 13163371 Mon, 31 Dec 2012 16:13:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1014731/comments?source=feed#comment-11786611 11786611 Mon, 19 Nov 2012 18:24:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1009431/comments?source=feed#comment-11659111 11659111 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 16:49:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1009431/comments?source=feed#comment-11658651 11658651 It also started right after the net speculative long position in stock index futures (dollar-weighted, all indexes combined) had reached an all time high - i.e., after futures traders sentiment had become more bullish than at any other top in history since stock index futures began to trade. Meanwhile, the net cash position of mutual funds is only 40 basis points above an all time low. Yes, a rebound will eventually come, but it will probably fail to make a new high and very likely will present an excellent selling opportunity (of course this will have to be appraised as it happens). ]]> Thu, 15 Nov 2012 16:39:49 -0500 It also started right after the net speculative long position in stock index futures (dollar-weighted, all indexes combined) had reached an all time high - i.e., after futures traders sentiment had become more bullish than at any other top in history since stock index futures began to trade. Meanwhile, the net cash position of mutual funds is only 40 basis points above an all time low. Yes, a rebound will eventually come, but it will probably fail to make a new high and very likely will present an excellent selling opportunity (of course this will have to be appraised as it happens). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1006581/comments?source=feed#comment-11653461 11653461 The options market is indeed important. In the short term, option positioning can magnify trends in the underlying. That is however
not only true for AAPL, but for all stocks with active options. And it is quite natural that a stock that has trended up for a long time and has such a huge following will have an active options market. ]]> Thu, 15 Nov 2012 15:01:41 -0500 The options market is indeed important. In the short term, option positioning can magnify trends in the underlying. That is however
not only true for AAPL, but for all stocks with active options. And it is quite natural that a stock that has trended up for a long time and has such a huge following will have an active options market. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1006581/comments?source=feed#comment-11653141 11653141 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 14:54:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/985901/comments?source=feed#comment-11381101 11381101 Thu, 08 Nov 2012 14:16:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/990151/comments?source=feed#comment-11380621 11380621
Well, actually this is not so. AUQ has sold this mine. Its 'principal property' is now Young-Davidson. ]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 14:07:03 -0500
Well, actually this is not so. AUQ has sold this mine. Its 'principal property' is now Young-Davidson. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/964991/comments?source=feed#comment-11234321 11234321 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 06:25:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/956741/comments?source=feed#comment-11121831 11121831 Let us also not forget: sell-side analysis is always colored by recency bias. Over the past two years, gold stocks have woefully lagged the metal. Only after this became obvious have people begun to look for reasons. Now many assume that the problems have become immutable. This is however not the case - gold mining margins are generally anti-cyclical. They tend to be compressed when economic confidence increases and tend to expand when it decreases, which is why the gold mining sector is the only sector in the market that is demonstrably negatively correlated with the broader stock market in the long term. ]]> Thu, 01 Nov 2012 10:45:54 -0400 Let us also not forget: sell-side analysis is always colored by recency bias. Over the past two years, gold stocks have woefully lagged the metal. Only after this became obvious have people begun to look for reasons. Now many assume that the problems have become immutable. This is however not the case - gold mining margins are generally anti-cyclical. They tend to be compressed when economic confidence increases and tend to expand when it decreases, which is why the gold mining sector is the only sector in the market that is demonstrably negatively correlated with the broader stock market in the long term. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/932421/comments?source=feed#comment-10916601 10916601 And you are of course quite right that money printing can not possibly overcome the scarcity of resources and capital. It can and does however misdirect resources into uneconomic, and ultimately wealth destroying activities (like e.g. giant housing bubbles, to name a glaring recent example). Today central bankers are proposing that they must do all over again what they already tried after the tech bubble burst - only on an even grander scale. It is simply put insanity. ]]> Thu, 25 Oct 2012 21:47:33 -0400 And you are of course quite right that money printing can not possibly overcome the scarcity of resources and capital. It can and does however misdirect resources into uneconomic, and ultimately wealth destroying activities (like e.g. giant housing bubbles, to name a glaring recent example). Today central bankers are proposing that they must do all over again what they already tried after the tech bubble burst - only on an even grander scale. It is simply put insanity. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/932421/comments?source=feed#comment-10916351 10916351 Thu, 25 Oct 2012 21:39:07 -0400