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  • U.S. Recession: More Unemployment, Sinking Dollar  [View article]
    It absolutely does matter which economic theory one employs. Economic laws are not subject to whim, they are laws; either one's economic premises are correct, or they are not.
    Among the economic theories J. Carey has enumerated, the Austrian school is the only one that offers a rich enough theory of capital , money and credit to actually be able to cogently explain what has happened (and continues to happen).
    However, the Austrian theory is detrimental to the job prospects of economists - since it eschews all forms of intervention and central planning, but instead argues that the free market can not possibly be improved upon (a premise that is both theoretically and empirically sound).
    If economists are not called upon to formulate and implement grandiose plans, they naturally feel 'underused'.
    Also, they have found out that as soon as one provides a 'scientific fig leaf' for statist intervention as Lord Keynes has done, one immediately is showered with tax payer financed grants and jobs, and gets to advise the political class.
    It is therefore in the self-interest of most economists to argue for interventionism.
    The Federal Reserve employs a veritable horde of economists (i encourage everyone to randomly pick a few papers from the Fed's economic research department and read them - if afterwards you feel that there are apparently many people in the world with nothing of value to do, you got the right idea), the main job of whom is to produce nice papers completely removed from the real world that serve to absolve the Federal Reserve of all responsibility for inflation and the boom/bust cycle - in spite of the fact that this institution is the root cause of both.
    These people naturally, will always defend the interventionist doctrines that keep their jobs secure (it is quite different with other people's jobs, as we can see now that the inevitable bust is here).
    As a result, we are showered with economic propaganda while sound economic theory ends up roundly ignored in the mainstream.
    Mr. Jackson performs a valuable service by bringing such sound theory to a wide readership. Economics is too important a topic to be left solely to professional economists.
    Sep 29 22:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Why the U.S. Dollar Is Vulnerable to Decline Now [View article]
    while the dollar does look potentially vulnerable to a correction, i doubt it will be falling a whole lot. first one must ask: against what is it supposed to fall? surely not against the euro, but that terminally ill currency makes up 60% of the DXY basket considered in the chart at the beginning of the article.
    there is a reason why the dollar has been, and continues to be strong. we have a global debt crisis, and most of this debt is denominated in dollars. banks worldwide have trouble financing their dollar liabilities, as their dollar-denominated assets (CDOs, MBS, etc) have crashed in value. this creates a steady stream of insatiable dollar demand, and is set to continue to support the dollar for quite some time, especially against the euro. it matters little that economic fundamentals in the US are no less catastrophic as they are elsewhere. the dollars HAVE to be bought, like it or not.
    Mar 06 21:26 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
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