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friscominermischief

friscominermischief
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  • Why I'm Buying Silver Again [View article]
    The market is also pricing silver as if it will always be mined in disproportionate ratios to gold. The price would imply that silver is ~50x more plentiful in the ground than gold, and further can more or less be pulled out 'on demand'.

    I don't believe mining operations are turnkey. They do take considerable time to develop. Secondary mining is also dependent upon the demand for primary metals such as copper; and it follows that a drop in demand for copper would impact silver production.

    Finally while a soaring gold price might impact demand for gold jewelry, a soaring silver price would probably not affect demand as much, given its role in industrial manufacturing and the lack of suitable substitutes that are equally ductile, conductive, and plentiful.
    Aug 27, 2013. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz Debt: Worth Its Weight? [View article]
    Thanks Charles... but this is more just sour grapes on my part. I wanted that to be a staple of my retirement portfolio.. now I have to go and find something else since 'private' equity will reap the gains now.
    Apr 25, 2013. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz Debt: Worth Its Weight? [View article]
    This is just a corporate raider play (I mean.. private equity)... swoop in, lever the company up with debt, use the proceeds to land an immediate up-front dividend, milk the company of every penny, lay off workers, sell brands piecemeal to keep the company paying its new owners, and when its stripped down to bupkis, either bankrupt it or sell it off in a new IPO at a substantially inflated price.
    Feb 18, 2013. 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Gut Check Time For Gold And Silver [View article]
    First no one can tell which components of the visible price are set by the fundamentals of metal supply and demand, vs. leveraged bets using unbacked digital dollars. It's not like there is some daily publication of how much metal is being required by industry/investors, that could be matched up against daily supply.

    If trading is indeed 100 paper ounces to every single physical, then this is much more of a speculators play.
    Feb 18, 2013. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz May Be A Buffett Stock, But This Isn't A Buffett Price [View article]
    I am completely disgusted with this Board of Directors.

    This company would have hit that wimpy 20% growth threshold in just a couple of more years.. there was no reason to sell it for such a marginal premium.

    I and other long-term shareholders (me, 10+ years) have been sold down the river by the Board of Directors.. who may very well have breached their fiduciary responsibilities.
    Feb 15, 2013. 02:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Yield At Magellan Midstream Partners [View article]
    Since this article, MMP is now up another 40% or so, without apparent difficulty.

    Distributions continue to be raised every quarter as per the last many, many years.

    No one equity is golden forever, but I would be curious to see Stone Fox explain to its readers why it feels its original premise was valid, especially for those who missed out on the substantial gains.

    In my view this stock is peaking when the go-forward business fundamentals no longer would support increased growth in the distributions. And as far as I know, Americans throughout the mid-west are still using natural gas, and farmers are still using fertilizer.
    Feb 3, 2013. 05:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Yield At Magellan Midstream Partners [View article]
    Stone Fox, this stock is now up 40% since your prescient article that it was overvalued and due to fall.

    At what point will you own up to the errant call?
    Feb 3, 2013. 05:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More People Ask 'How Do You Buy Silver?' [View article]
    Urban Legend. People willingly surrendered their gold for dollars.

    State your proof (in bullion) of hundreds of millions of ounces being seized or confiscated by the IRS out of safe deposit boxes.
    Oct 16, 2012. 05:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More People Ask 'How Do You Buy Silver?' [View article]
    The standard arguments are not really compelling.

    Some will say that holding bullion (or paper forms) is risky, because these can go down... and they point to 1980 as a peak.

    Well, stocks can go down too. They never point to a NASDAQ 2000 peak.. nor mention that it has failed to recover some 12 years later.

    Some will say there are storage costs to holding bullion, as in a safe deposit box.

    Well, sort of. Many banks offer them for free if you have a good relationship. And even if you have to pay.. well a $35 annual fee for a standard box can hold around 250 oz of silver (~$8700). Therefore the holding cost 'ratio' is $35 / $8700 = 0.40%. That's much less than a mutual fund annual fee, on par with the most automated ETFs out there.

    Most of the arguments don't hold up under scrutiny. Sure there are risks, save one: your bullion can never go bankrupt.
    Oct 11, 2012. 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Peak Oil Is Not Going To Happen [View article]
    Spot on Lee.

    Remember the old pictures of the black gushers in the United States? Fountains of black gold blowing up wooden derricks?

    There's a reason why those pictures are old. Those kinds of wells don't exist in easily accessible places anymore... they were tapped out long ago. Now we have to chase smaller and smaller formations in obscure places and extreme depths.
    Sep 9, 2012. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold hits its highest level since February, +1.4% to $1,731 as QE expectations for next week ratchet up following the payroll report. Silver and copper follow suit, both posting large gains and multi-month highs. And don't forget Beijing - now getting serious about its own stimulus efforts. [View news story]
    In ancient times the Romans held the gold,
    not the Barbarian race.
    Now the elites cry only Barbarians hold gold,
    Run kid!
    Fetch me my mace.
    Sep 8, 2012. 02:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Peak Oil Is Not Going To Happen [View article]
    The world will never run out of fiat paper either.

    Spend a little time studying petrochemicals, origins, refinement and uses. There is a major difference between light sweet crude and heavy bunker. Of accessibility. Drill, shipment and refinement technologies. Water-cuts to account for. Environmental impacts.

    I know it's really fun to think of the earth as one big ball of oil that we stick straws into .. but getting the chemicals out and ready for your hummer... it's not cheap, it's not easy.. and becoming less so every year.
    Sep 4, 2012. 03:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Won't Find Hyperinflation In Democracies [View article]
    Then by your logic, a good defence against hyperinflation is to ensure a well-protected democracy.

    Including making sure everyone has the opportunity to vote, irrespective of attempts on the right to restrict those rights with Voter ID laws.

    Ensuring that minorities are not thrown off the rolls by flawed statistical models and bad database joins.

    Protecting the rights of people to vote early in every state where it is permitted, and not cherry picking which (red) counties can vote early and which counties (blue) cannot.

    Calling out the media when they abandon journalistic principles in favor of thinly-disguised partisan talking points, and give unequal air time to their 'guests' posing as commentators when they are actually party operatives.

    Because these things and many more are things that undermine democracy and move us closer to demagoguery, which sets the stage for hyperinflation.
    Sep 4, 2012. 03:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil Myth: Debunking The Peak Oil Theory [View article]
    The market can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent.

    People can remain in denial far beyond a reasonable factual doubt.

    I need not be caught unawares by either of the two aforementioned.

    No one can stop me from hedging against either or both possibilities.

    Likewise people are completely free to ignore the possibility of peak oil. Just promise you will not go crying for aid, government intervention, or reckless confiscatory schemes the rest of us will have to pay for if the price spikes and makes your lifestyle unsustainable.
    Sep 4, 2012. 03:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    'Gold has risen 642% from 2001 to 2011'. This author does not know what he is talking about.

    Gold is an exchange rate. From real metal to e-paper fiat. Just like F/X among currency pairs, gold exchanges at variable rates to e-paper fiat, supposedly reflecting market sentiment on the go-forward relative value of one over the other.

    So the exchange value has tipped in favor of gold and away from e-paper, meaning one constant ounce of gold can be exchanged for more e-paper fiat today than 10 years ago.

    But in 2001 one ounce of gold could also be exchange for about 12 barrels of crude. Today gold could buy about 17 barrels of oil.. which means that oz is only about 42% more valuable in crude terms (vs. 642% in e-paper fiat). Not a bad appreciation, but by no means hundreds and hundreds of percentage points that would indicate a bubble or excessive pricing.

    And for the kids watching at home, US M2 supply (from 'printing') nearly doubled over the same time period, and official inflation eroded about 21% of your dollar holdings.
    Sep 4, 2012. 02:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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