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  • Chevron's 4.6% Dividend Yield Is A Once-In-A-Decade Opportunity  [View article]
    >>>Do you see any similarity between the two?<<<


    The similarity for me is that both situations result in lower oil prices, lower profits for oil companies, and an uncertainty in when or if oil prices will recover.

    I agree assuming short term may be wrong. But I have more confidence in assuming oil will recover at some point. Whether short term or long term I do not know. The uncertainty is what provides the opportunity. Investing with the financially strongest like XOM or CVX is a reasonable investment based on what we know about this crazy world we live in.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins Rewards Shareholders With Another 25% Dividend Increase  [View article]
    jwfrazier, I like UTX also. First invested in it in May 2012. Been in V since July 2014. MA is another I would like to own. All great companies.
    Jul 18, 2015. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins Rewards Shareholders With Another 25% Dividend Increase  [View article]

    Went with CMI. Squeezed in 1 more share (55) because of the dip this morning.
    My mother holds RTN. I have NSC but I would really like to add UNP to my portfolio at some point.
    Jul 17, 2015. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins Rewards Shareholders With Another 25% Dividend Increase  [View article]

    UNP and RTN. Also been looking at two smaller companies ALB and RAVN.

    Checked my account and my dollars are in place so have to decide. Likely will be 54 shares of CMI when the market opens this morning.
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins Rewards Shareholders With Another 25% Dividend Increase  [View article]
    Thanks for the article. CMI is on my short list for my next investment. It has been showing up on my screen as the price has dropped. There is a lot to like in this excellent company.

    I agree that dividend growth will decrease at some point as the payout ratio increases. I see you used 12% div growth going forward in your forecast. I would be very happy with that and believe that 12% is possible if earnings continue to grow at the forecasted 9% to 12% range.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's 4.6% Dividend Yield Is A Once-In-A-Decade Opportunity  [View article]
    >>>>Deciding whether to invest in oil given the price battering requires a view to the long-term, Fliakos said.
    "I wouldn't buy the oil stocks based on today's conditions. I mean, there should be some anticipation. My feeling has been that there's simply too much despair about oil prices," Fliakos said. But, he added, "I think the price of oil is going to recover to the high teens. <<<<

    The above is from Nov 30, 1998 when the price of oil dropped to $11.15 . The best time to buy oil stocks is when the price of oil tanks. It recovered then and it will recover again and proceed higher. I have added to my XOM. When funds are available I will be adding to either CVX or OXY if share prices continue to be depressed.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cummins Stock Is An Opportunity Right Now  [View article]

    Thanks for your views on CMI as it is timely for me. CMI has been on my watch list for awhile and recently has been showing up on my screen. I will be investing some accumulated funds in the next day or two and CMI seems to be coming out on top. Others I am considering are UNP and RTN.

    Econovan- the mean earning growth rate est is around 9.9. (hence the PEG ratio of around 1.16.
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco: Q2 2015 Buy  [View article]
    I agree with not overpaying. I use a max p/e of 18 in my screens and prefer not to pay more than the market multiple. Most all the stocks I hold that you see in my profile were purchased with this requirement.

    One exception for me was V that I invested at $53.49 in July 2014 at a p/e of around 24 I believe it was. COST is one that my mother has invested in at a higher p/e. She invested in spring of 2014 at around $111 at p/e or around 23 or 24. There is less room for error when investing at higher valuations. You must have confidence in the business model in that the company can continue with the higher earnings growth rates. A miss will of course cost you.
    Jul 12, 2015. 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu: A Juicy Opportunity In The Wake Of China's Crash  [View article]
    I believe some of the sites are confusing the currencies. Dividing the ADRs in dollars by the earnings in CNY (Chinese Yuan) and getting low p/e ratios. Most of the earnings est I see are in CNY. 1 USD = 6.2124 CNY.

    For BIDU I think Morningstar has it correct. Morningstar lists a current p/e of 31.3 and a forward p/e of 19.8 which I believe may be correct based on an average of current forward estimates. SA seems to also have it correct as they list a trailing 12 month p/e of 33. So I agree with the comments above that the forward p/e of 4.2 is likely way off base.
    Jul 12, 2015. 07:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So, You'll Switch To Dividend Growth Investing After You Have Your Millions, Eh?  [View article]
    >>>I know I've disclosed this before: I have not had so much as a bite of chocolate since Labor Day 1988. Really.<<<

    I discussed your statement with several folks who know a lot of stuff. And the consensus of the group was just that "You ain't right".
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire Worry-Free On Less Than $1 Million?  [View article]
    >>>She "paid a little Federal tax"? If you can tell me how she does this, it would certainly be of help.<<<

    jess perkins,

    I am not a tax expert but her tax return seems to be about as simple as it can be. She has income from Social Security, RMD from her IRA, dividends and interest from the regular account. Her Federal tax was somewhere around $1000 this year. She takes the standard deduction.

    Her IRA is around 36% of her investments. For those with higher balances in traditional IRAs the RMD would be higher and so would the Federal taxes I believe.
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Withdrawal Phase Might Not Be As Frightening As You Think  [View article]
    We have a few more years to go but our plan is rather simple. When we retire we will live on social security and dividend income. We expect our dividend income to grow at a greater rate than inflation. We will live within our means just as we always have. So whether we live to 70 or to 110 we are covered. Whatever the principle amount is that is left will go to our daughter.

    One other thing. They don't give trophy's for higher account balances when you die. So we won't be doing much reinvesting in retirement. All retirement income will be enjoyed. Whether it is extra trips, eating out more often or just giving it away.
    Jul 5, 2015. 09:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire Worry-Free On Less Than $1 Million?  [View article]
    >>>Because the cost of living is so high where I live in Connecticut and Florida, I would need an income of at least $30,000 a month to retire comfortably and worry free. No way is that possible with investments of only one million dollars.<<<

    How much cost of living varies in this country amazes me. My mother is retired, lives in a gated community with golf course, pool, and security etc. She does this with social security and a small portion of her dividends. She has no pension. Her investments are in the $675-$725k range. Her yield is around the 3.5% range I would guess. She currently reinvests at least 2/3 of her dividends. She is in her late 70's and paid a little Federal tax and no state tax this year. Home, cars and all else are paid for.

    She don't travel much and lives rather simply. Golf is what she enjoys. Overall she does quite well on less than $30,000 in expenses each year.
    Jul 5, 2015. 09:14 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiring Early: Lost Savings  [View article]
    They don't give trophy's for dying with a higher account balance.

    Retire when you can afford it and enjoy it.
    Jul 4, 2015. 11:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commenters Pick The Best Dividend Growers For The Next 5 Years  [View article]
    >>>When considering a new position, what metrics do you examine to help ensure strong accelerating dividend growth for the next five years?<<<


    Great topic. And to answer your question I use a stock screen that I put together as a starting point.

    The Screen is:
    Div growth 5 years >5% or equal.
    Market Cap >200 million or equal.
    Cash flow growth (5 yr) >1% or equal.
    Div yield >2.2% or equal.
    Debt to cap 50 or less.
    P/E (current yr est) 18 or less.
    Div payout % 60% or less.
    Return on equity >5 or equal.
    S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rank.

    The screen currently returns 70 names. It is best to consider quality to rule some out. I usually start with the S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rank and sort from best to worst. Some examples currently on the list that S&P ranks A- or better are (A+) EMR, JNJ, NWE, RTN, UTX and (A) DOV, NSC, and (A-) CMI, TROW.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment