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gh1616

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  • Why The Fed Is Not Worried About Deflation [View article]
    David,

    Well stated comment!

    A stunning number of analysts reports for companies in the industrial sector discuss the impact of the energy price collapse on their revenue and earnings outlook. Its a bigger deal for many companies than currency translations. As you note, this inturn effects their suppliers.

    Additionally I agree that energy is just one commodity that has collapsed. There is a much greater story here. But the talking-heads economist on the business talk shows ignore the risks while assuring audiences that happy days are here again, The gas pump savings economic injection is always right around the corner.

    The jobs being lost and those that will be lost in the energy and industrial sector are good well paying jobs. I read a recent report that claimed a 10 - 1 ratio of those being lost versus the largely services industry jobs this economy is creating.
    Mar 22, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Has The Worm Turned Once Again? [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks. I have been a buyer of KMI on pullbacks since oil prices collapsed last fall. Hot-money sold believing wrongly that energy storage and transporters pricing would also collapse. As for high debt levels I think its important to consider free cash flow with the restructured company. Genius move on Kinder's part.

    Rails have been a great investment for years but driven more by the muddling overall economy growth than oil specific. Intermodal has been a productive innovation. Three years ago several transport and energy analysts believed oil needed to stay above $80 for the rail segment volumes.

    Also, It always interesting to read KMI articles because you know emotions are going to run high with the comments. All that's needed now is for some energy analyst at Hedgeeye to open up his pie-hole again. LOL, Very entertaining!


    Cheers
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Has The Worm Turned Once Again? [View article]
    Good point on utilities, but suggest you follow growth not weather. Also low growth states reluctantly approve rate hikes least they incur public backlash and what growth they have hits the exits. And costs are increasing for all utilities.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economy: This Was Not Supposed To Happen [View article]
    James.........

    Please allow me to say "Amen brother" to your post!!!
    Mar 1, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Points On 'America's Imminent Budget Crisis': Focus [View article]
    JohnWJ.........

    Well stated my friend!!!
    Here's hoping the government and academic "Krugmanites" don't have the IRS come knocking at our door for daring to challenge the dogma.


    Cheers
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Points On 'America's Imminent Budget Crisis': Focus [View article]
    TTurk, Good response.

    Mr. DeLong lost me with his first point that a greater debt is "not a big worry" since future generations will be richer and can pay for our indulgences. Given today's Main Street reality that alone I believe is a huge leap which can't be supported by fact only supposition. The truth is we are in uncharted waters and no one know what kind of eventual calamities will result, hence the uncertainties. One fact seems curtain to me.... we are truly witnessing history in the making if the U.S. and now the rest of the globe's central banks are successful spending its way into prosperity. The "bridge" is now 7 years long, where is the prosperity?

    What is irritating is to listen and read many of the same economist that were ringing the alarm-bells in 2008, that a government debt ridden financial Armageddon was surely at our doorstep. It was a cornerstone of Obama's 2008 campaign. Now its no longer a concern and maybe not enough debt?......huh??
    Feb 22, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Baltic Dry Index Predicted 3 Market Crashes: Will It Do It Again? [View article]
    pipar ....."BDI is not anymore effective and reliable - as it was in the past.......


    So you're saying 'this time its different'!?! Fateful words if ever there were any.

    No I think Mr. Fishman's article is well done and classic Dow Theory but on a global scale. When we find it necessary to argue that we have built too many ships, too many trains, too many trucks we are trying to justify valuations, and hence sleep better at night, or Don't worry be happy!

    As has been noted the current unprecedented action of central banks is for now superseding normal market behavior to the BDI and commodities which are screaming underlying problems.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audit The Fed- And Shackle It, Too [View article]
    tallguyz...."Include Warren......"

    Surely your not serious? Warren is another central-planner, and anything but a free-markets advocate. If she were to "sign on" to a narrowly focused fed with tight oversight I fear it would be to initiate something far worse.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt [View article]
    rndog....."investors, like most businessmen.......(are) Short-sighted and pathetic"

    I completely disagree with your comments. That's the kind of thinking that gives us bad public policy, we get one Bernie Madoff therefore All asset managers are thieves requiring new laws and many more regulations that every business has to deal with. Its ridiculous.

    Yes the business cycle for public companies is 90 days but leaders can walk and chew gum, that is to say they are very focused on the long term. And so are investors! Very few that I've ever known or I'm aware of don't care if the water is undrinkable and air dirty.

    The "excess" to be very afraid of, especially for our children and grandchildren and the subject of this article, is global debt. As the author points out it "boils down to a binary outcome", and "working-out" "isn't equally weighted"
    Jan 25, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt [View article]
    Seems to me the author provides a new spin on the old Malthusian catastrophe theory. The use of China as a proof source of growth expectation folly I believe is a focus on the extreme. In our lifetime China has come from an agrarian backwater economy to embrace some principles of free markets. Rapid growth was of course going to result from that scenario. What China has experienced has been to reap the benefits of low hanging fruit. But continued growth rate the author describes is unlikely regardless of this argument.

    No, this sounds to me like setting the table to begin the explanation of why the unprecedented injection of debt and credit by central banks globally hasn't worked. One of the billionaire participants at Davos yesterday said that people (read-little people) need to dial back their expectations of life, thus using the same mediocre growth expectations for the elite's new normal. So what do we tell all these young people who have gone into debt to pay the ridiculous sums required for a college education?....sorry, that whole growth thing...we had it wrong?

    I believe that continued growth is possible but requires small business to flourish which will not happen in this environment of uncertainty. Also many of these businesses that need access to plentiful credit can't get it due to banking regulations.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Dividend Growth Will Continue To Decelerate [View article]
    combat.............

    If the selling you note was due to any "confirmation bias" it was that CSCO missed not "some unwritten standard" but consensus estimates as well as management guidance as I recall. They were rapidly getting a reputation as a serial-disappointer. If you want to call that a "confirmation bias" its a pretty darn good one.

    As for Rick Santelli and some supposed "benchmark" I really don't understand your point. If you are talking about the 10 year Santelli has been right on the mark and he has good company. Jeffrey Gundlach has been spot on, as has the fixed income market with Santelli's range for that debt instrument.

    As for Santelli concluding the world would end, what is the date of the CNBC broadcast where he said anything like that. He doesn't like the Fed induces wealth effect, many don't, and we haven't seen the beginning let alone the end of the unwinding story.
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    Posters...........

    Good article in Barron's this week on IBM.
    Jun 5, 2014. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    martinfrosa..............

    Your comment directed to me is wrong on so many levels I hardly know where to start, and it certainly isn't worth the effort.

    You are wrong to say IBM hasn't grown its earnings. Its grown earnings every year over the last 10 years. And Estimates aren't just grabbed out of the air. The analysts that follow IBM base their estimates on management guidance then plus/minus what they believe they are capable of delivering based on their experience and knowledge. As for management guidance; few publically traded companies are serial-disappointers anymore since Sarbanes-Oxley. That's a good way for a CEO to get a Wells Notice.

    You are wrong; ACN is in the IT Services Industry with their business units in consulting, technology, and outsourcing services. Included in this group are ADP, and PAYX. And their charts since 2011 look very similar.

    You claim to have experience "in finance and wealth management". That could mean anything from working in pay-day loans to working in a brokerage office mail room. Given your comments the idea that your passing yourself off as a "wealth management" (what? advisor) doesn't pass the smell-test with me.

    And yes, I was in the markets in 1987, for many years before that (starting in 1960's, I traded the nifty-fifty) and after.
    Jun 5, 2014. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company's Premium Valuation In Danger [View article]
    Barclays position was regarding utility bonds in general, and cost of capital specifically in a potential rising rate environment, and they are one voice. They discuss the potential long term effect of solar and storage for residences in some parts of the country. They specifically name Hawaii.

    Okay, so what? Could this impact some utilities at the margin? Maybe, as they say "in a few years". But, for most sections of the U.S. solar as a threat to large utilities is science-fiction. Even those except for environmental nuts acknowledge this fact.

    And the utility industry is not, as you say "scared to death". Dominion Resources by example has recently seen significant insider buying.

    But this is way off the point which is the latest EPA attack in the administration's war on coal. If this is such a great idea why isn't it being run through congress as it should? The answer of course is jobs, hundreds of thousands of jobs. Also the cost to the already weak economy, and this will play out as a terrible regressive tax on millions of Americans.

    So you gave me an investing challenge, here's one for you...demonstrate your convictions and short SO, and other large utilities including the XLU.
    Jun 5, 2014. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    martinfrosa.............. growth rate estimates don't mean nuttin to me"

    Well they should!! My guess is you have been very lucky up to now investing in a bull market where its hard to make a mistake.

    To the point: every year during your Yahoo Finance comps charts IBM delivered decent earnings growth. The revenue shortfall has largely been to their large exposure to European markets. It is therefore meaningless to compare their revenue growth to the S&P 500. It would be more useful to screen their revenue growth to large cap companies with large European exposure over the same time frame. Being a free service I doubt Yahoo gives you that functionality. More specifically screening companies in IBM's sector of the Computer Industry with large European market exposure.

    Finally, you are comparing apples and oranges with ACN and IBM anyway. ACN is in the IT Services Industry. You could compare ACN to ADP, or PAYX, or DST. But then they have charts that look like ACN.

    I suspect Rob24601 was trying to tell you that a little more education is in order before you go off on an investing website. There are some readers who have been in this business a long time.
    Jun 4, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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