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  • The October Jobs Report- Not Awesome, Just More Of The Same BLS Con [View article]
    David, thanks for 'peeling the onion' on the jobs data. The anecdotal evidence supporting your data is overwhelming. Nearly all the individual company reports I read outline further cost slashing especially labor. What is commonly overlooked is the ancillary businesses supporting the now gone energy boom. And the businesses supporting these ancillary businesses or the business chain. These were mostly high paying blue and white collar jobs.
    Nov 10, 2015. 01:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Towards A New Macroeconomics? [View article]
    This is a welcome article from the group-think of New Keynesian economics. Like so many, too many, notions in our society today those with the loudest voice treat them as a New Religion and one you dare not challenge.

    I believe to focus on the macro economic challenges is to work on developing a solution set looking for the right problem set. I look at this economic conundrum from the Main Street level, bottom up, micro versus macro. The single greatest clue to the problem comes from a sentence uttered by Rahm Emanual "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste". Exactly the same thinking is found with the FDR's Brain Trust in the 1930's. This thinking then leads to all kinds of new and intrusive government policies, thousands of pages of regulations, some 77,000 last year alone, and new taxes to pay for them.

    I suggest this leads to uncertainty, businesses are scared to make a mistake only to be dragged through a legal keyhole. Certainly anything but risk-taking, capital investment, and growth. Main Street has a hunker-down mentality. Collectively perhaps this results in a macro hysteria? An interesting subject to be sure and a great time to be in the compliance consulting business.
    Nov 7, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Are Not Agricultural Marketing Boards: Depression Economics, Inflation Economics And The Unsustainability Of Friedmanism [View article]
    Well said Geoffster
    Oct 26, 2015. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 IMF Meetings In Peru: Three Takeaways For Investors [View article]
    The fact that they are working on a 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in conjunction with the UN is a scary thought to me. They should be focused on the next 12 to 18 months.
    Oct 21, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart [View article]

    Well thanks for the wish of luck. I'm an old-hand at this and I'm still solvent and in the game.

    Timing the market is the claim of fools and liars. And you are actually making my argument. I've been in the markets and the industry for going on five decades and the only time I have been largely out was going into 2008 which was very different and not a cycle. That was a credit crisis and contraction similar to 1930. Where it would find support was anyone's guess. But if you've ever studied Ben Graham and the work he did with David Dodd on securities analysis you know the contraction set up classic buy opportunities where companies traded below liquidation value.

    Fast forward to today, while there is plenty to worry about, and an anemic economy, we have nothing like a credit contraction. Some stocks are fully valued, however there are others that are relative bargains, plus many pay above market dividends. So I've aimed my comments at inexperienced, and confused folks looking for some answers and perhaps a different perspective. Believe me I don't try to even influence the numerous posters of articles like this who have their minds made up like yourself, are certain they know what Mr. Market will do, and preach the sky is falling to each other. So please allow me to "wish you a lot of luck" as well.
    Oct 18, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart [View article]
    ant.............."for retirees going cash is best"

    Well I'm retired too, and your suggestion is very poor advice to give to any investor especially an inexperienced investor looking for help. It is possible we could experience a correction where even defensive stocks could realize some loss, but maybe not! However, with 100% cash you are guaranteed a loss of buying power, which is a net unrecoverable loss. So if a retiree or anyone else sleeps better with a higher cash allocation fine, but you don't go 100% cash. And short term Treasuries are flat and may go to negative interest rate.

    This is not 1987, 2000 or 2008. Much of the volatility is program trading, and all the negative sentiment like yours takes the steam off fundamental valuation challenges. Therefore when quality companies trade below the long term market valuation ratio, and low versus their own earnings growth rate, its a contrarian's dream come true.
    Oct 17, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Worst Stock Crash In 27 Years Is Another Sign That The Economy Is Rapidly Falling Apart [View article]

    What you are describing is a classic contrarian buy opportunity. Buy quality, dollar cost average, overweight defensive if it helps you sleep better. Don't panic! Panic helps these guys sell books, papers, subscriptions, etc.

    Good luck to you too.
    Oct 15, 2015. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF: 'Honey, We've Japanified The World' [View article]
    Good article, the stats support the obvious, central planning at its finest. With little exception business will not invest given significant uncertainties, and there is no change in sight.

    Investors are continuing to hold common stock as there are simply no alternatives with reasonable risk/reward metrics. The S&P 500 would likely fall 500 points or more if interest rates were normalized, and other developed countries would realize worse losses. The central banks know the risks, they are painted into a corner.
    Oct 12, 2015. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lashed To The Zero Bound - The Fed's Ship Of Fools [View article]
    Reader............."The alternative was a disaster of epic proportions."

    That's a counterfactual statement for which there is no proof. Many of us involved in the markets in those days objected to government selecting winners and losers. When it came to MBS there was lots of culpability to go around.

    All said I believe Sheila Bair was the 'smartest one in the room' and likely is the one deserving praise for avoiding your "disaster of epic proportions" when she pushed to have government backing for demand deposits, savings, and money market funds after the collapse of the Reserve Primary Fund and the seizure of IndyMac. That's when we had the greatest risk of 1930's type bank runs.

    The concern many of us have is allowing the Fed to exceed its charter, and by proxy one unelected person, the Chairman, to make broad sweeping decisions on what they think will revive the economy. When hatched this plan was called "a Bridge". Well the "Bridge" now has a beard! Long ago we heard the refrain "when you're in a hole, stop digging".
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Something For Nothing' Society [View article]
    31456..........."Corre... doesn't necessarily prove Causation"

    Oh I thing given Mr. Jensen's point, correlation very definitely proves causation!

    I don't think any type of statistical analysis is even relevant here which I state as one who loves technical analysis. Rather Mr. Jensen's point is I believe "common sense".
    Oct 5, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Something For Nothing' Society [View article]
    Hello David,

    Well said as usual. I was rather hoping you would read this article.

    Oct 5, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Something For Nothing' Society [View article]
    We experienced a 'quality' movement in the 1980's and 1990's where we learned businesses and individuals spent too much time focusing and fixing "effect" versus understanding "cause". This article is a perfect example of focusing on "effect".

    But then 'Quality tools' are soooo yesterday to think-tank writers like Ms Coppola.
    Oct 4, 2015. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Angry Old Guys And Low Risk Young People Edition [View article]
    I don't think many are worried or care about angry old Bill Gates, or his investment returns. From this old guy, you are absolutely right about a diversified and/or laddered bond portfolio, funds or individual bonds. What I am concerned about is the very many folks, especially on fixed income, who can't afford a financial consultant and are being told to stay away from bonds completely. So these people are in CD's, the stock market, or maybe just cash.

    As for young folks, in my conversations with them they are scared to death that the older folks running the economy don't know what they are doing. Government economist tell them not to worry, we can spend our way to prosperity. But, well Cullen the 'dogs aren't eating the dog food'.
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen Says There Is No Economic Problem While Describing A Serious Economic Problem [View article]

    I loved your comment! Like you I come at this from an experienced based perspective. And I'm an old guy too, may have you by a few years. I'm staring at 70.

    You are absolutely right, we fail to learn from history. When I was young I often heard from elders; "experience is a great teacher but rarely gives its pupil a holiday". I would opine that today what is different is the scale of the travesty. There will be no painless way out of this, the FRB is really in a box that they have created regardless of how well intended.

    As for the business environment, and to your point, I've never seen anything like the challenges of running a business today and I started my professional career in the 1960's. For decades I though the 1970's were bad, hah! A manager of a small to mid-size business can deal with a lot of government mandates, but the ever shifting uncertainty of bureaucrats creating and changing interpretation of laws is very expensive and a legal compliance nightmare. I don't know of a business, regardless of sector, that isn't dealing with shifting ground under their feet.
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A V Or W-Shaped Bottom [View article]

    I think your article is well reasoned and I hope you're analysis is correct concluding a W bottom! Thus far the S&P 500 successfully tested the October 2014 lows but the Dow and Transports failed that test which is concerning especially if you're a Dow Theorist. I agree technically the damage will take time to repair off a W bottom given overhead resistance.

    Interestingly one of the CNBC talking-heads this morning believe we will see a deflationary rally. Although on Bloomberg a Lombard Street Research analyst (more credible I believe) said we are at a critical juncture here, we could rally, or we could see a worsening financial crisis unfold. We shall see.
    Sep 16, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment