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gh1616

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  • Cisco: Dividend Growth Will Continue To Decelerate [View article]
    combat.............

    If the selling you note was due to any "confirmation bias" it was that CSCO missed not "some unwritten standard" but consensus estimates as well as management guidance as I recall. They were rapidly getting a reputation as a serial-disappointer. If you want to call that a "confirmation bias" its a pretty darn good one.

    As for Rick Santelli and some supposed "benchmark" I really don't understand your point. If you are talking about the 10 year Santelli has been right on the mark and he has good company. Jeffrey Gundlach has been spot on, as has the fixed income market with Santelli's range for that debt instrument.

    As for Santelli concluding the world would end, what is the date of the CNBC broadcast where he said anything like that. He doesn't like the Fed induces wealth effect, many don't, and we haven't seen the beginning let alone the end of the unwinding story.
    Jun 10 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    Posters...........

    Good article in Barron's this week on IBM.
    Jun 5 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    martinfrosa..............

    Your comment directed to me is wrong on so many levels I hardly know where to start, and it certainly isn't worth the effort.

    You are wrong to say IBM hasn't grown its earnings. Its grown earnings every year over the last 10 years. And Estimates aren't just grabbed out of the air. The analysts that follow IBM base their estimates on management guidance then plus/minus what they believe they are capable of delivering based on their experience and knowledge. As for management guidance; few publically traded companies are serial-disappointers anymore since Sarbanes-Oxley. That's a good way for a CEO to get a Wells Notice.

    You are wrong; ACN is in the IT Services Industry with their business units in consulting, technology, and outsourcing services. Included in this group are ADP, and PAYX. And their charts since 2011 look very similar.

    You claim to have experience "in finance and wealth management". That could mean anything from working in pay-day loans to working in a brokerage office mail room. Given your comments the idea that your passing yourself off as a "wealth management" (what? advisor) doesn't pass the smell-test with me.

    And yes, I was in the markets in 1987, for many years before that (starting in 1960's, I traded the nifty-fifty) and after.
    Jun 5 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company's Premium Valuation In Danger [View article]
    Barclays position was regarding utility bonds in general, and cost of capital specifically in a potential rising rate environment, and they are one voice. They discuss the potential long term effect of solar and storage for residences in some parts of the country. They specifically name Hawaii.

    Okay, so what? Could this impact some utilities at the margin? Maybe, as they say "in a few years". But, for most sections of the U.S. solar as a threat to large utilities is science-fiction. Even those except for environmental nuts acknowledge this fact.

    And the utility industry is not, as you say "scared to death". Dominion Resources by example has recently seen significant insider buying.

    But this is way off the point which is the latest EPA attack in the administration's war on coal. If this is such a great idea why isn't it being run through congress as it should? The answer of course is jobs, hundreds of thousands of jobs. Also the cost to the already weak economy, and this will play out as a terrible regressive tax on millions of Americans.

    So you gave me an investing challenge, here's one for you...demonstrate your convictions and short SO, and other large utilities including the XLU.
    Jun 5 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    martinfrosa.............. growth rate estimates don't mean nuttin to me"

    Well they should!! My guess is you have been very lucky up to now investing in a bull market where its hard to make a mistake.

    To the point: every year during your Yahoo Finance comps charts IBM delivered decent earnings growth. The revenue shortfall has largely been to their large exposure to European markets. It is therefore meaningless to compare their revenue growth to the S&P 500. It would be more useful to screen their revenue growth to large cap companies with large European exposure over the same time frame. Being a free service I doubt Yahoo gives you that functionality. More specifically screening companies in IBM's sector of the Computer Industry with large European market exposure.

    Finally, you are comparing apples and oranges with ACN and IBM anyway. ACN is in the IT Services Industry. You could compare ACN to ADP, or PAYX, or DST. But then they have charts that look like ACN.

    I suspect Rob24601 was trying to tell you that a little more education is in order before you go off on an investing website. There are some readers who have been in this business a long time.
    Jun 4 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company's Premium Valuation In Danger [View article]
    jerrydd...............

    You're living in a fantasy world if you really believe windmills, solar, and batteries will be anything more than marginal contributors to our energy requirements for the foreseeable future. We are a fossil fuel based economy and unless there is some huge breakthrough will be for the next century. The "inconvenient" fact is, as noted by environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg, fossil fuels power almost everything we like about modern life.
    Today we get 82% of our energy from fossil fuels and by 2035 fossil fuels are expected to provide 80% of a much higher amount of energy consumption.

    You attack poster Junkyarddog1 because coal is subsidized. Well nothing is subsidized at the level of green energy which helps very few. So you applaud the Administrations EPA newest regulation demands of utilities. But don't try to cover over the pain this will cause: a loss of 200,000 mostly higher paying jobs, and an estimated cost of $50 billion a year.

    Average folks, not the 1%er's, living in states with coal fired power plants are looking at double utility costs for their homes and businesses. And no one is talking about the effect this will have on natural gas prices with demand increases.

    This is a bad idea in an already weak economy. The only good news is it may hasten political changes.
    Jun 4 11:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Worth $260 Per Share [View article]
    martinfrosa........."I'll take ACN any day....."


    Actually IBM's earnings growth rate estimates for 2014 and '15 are higher than ACN, and IBM shares trade at a substantial discount to ACN valuation.
    Jun 4 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take Profits?: 16 Dividend Stocks That Are Currently Overvalued (Part 1) [View article]
    Byloe......

    I've never seen a "careful academic study" on the subject. But there probably is one as it seems everything else is studied these days. You can spend a lot of time drilling down into the reasons for share accumulation. But at the risk of oversimplification when you know how a business runs and how its valued, Ben Graham's approach here is legendary of course, you then understand managements guidance, and analysts estimates of earnings over the next 18 to 24 months, if the valuation is too good to be true, its exactly that and time to take a little off the table.
    Take a look at MMM for example: I have it trading 20x forward earnings estimates at todays close. Consensus earnings growth estimates for 2014 are 11% with 2015 at 10%. No way no how is an old conglomerate value company stock worth 20x. Its likely gasping for air given this rarified high altitude. Probably a good place to tell you I am a multi-decade owner of MMM shares. I've trimmed it, and hate to sell the rest of my holdings. It could still go higher of course, but we are approaching the "greater fool theory" of buying shares if you are familiar with this.
    This contributor is doing readers a huge favor, but too many posters here have forgotten or never knew the old investing rule.....Never fall in love with a company stock
    May 29 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take Profits?: 16 Dividend Stocks That Are Currently Overvalued (Part 1) [View article]
    John Learch, and Byloe Enhold...................

    While I've not read all this contributor's writing, I believe he is suggesting trimming not complete selling of a position in these stocks. There is nothing wrong with taking some profits especially if they are long-term gains for tax purposes.

    We are in unusual times with these value stocks gapping up, while normal market leadership is lagging. I believe another way to look at the contributor's point is reversion to the mean. Using COP for example, which this contributor also notes, it's a rare occurrence to see it gapping from its 50 day MA of $74 to $79 although its off 54 cents as I write this. I'm also a long term investor and have a full position in COP and added to the Phillips 66 shares spinoff which many didn't want. It went parabolic and I gradually trimmed my way out of the shares, no regrets, very profitable.

    Buffett is also a believer in reversion to the mean. GE shares traded in the mid-$60's in the late 90's, how happy we were that we used a discipline to trim that this contributor suggests when the shares finally bottomed at about $15 in '02. As the great investor Bernard Baruch said many times; take your profit and always leave a little on the table for the next guy. In other words; don't try to pick tops!
    May 29 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gross: Neutral Fed Funds rate far lower than markets believe [View news story]
    Actually Pimco's funds that I follow have done well off the late 2013 lows. Also, most are not run by Gross but a stable of fine fixed income managers like Arnott, Ivascyn, and Kiesel. And for some nice charts look at their Dynamic Credit Income CEF's PDI & PCI. Both have had significant insider buying since the 2013 lows.

    AcCIM above said it above......the bond markets know what the equity markets have yet to recognize.
    May 2 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Stuff, Different Year: Should Shareholders Stick With IBM? [View article]
    Tollsforthee...........


    Agree completely. In 1999 Louis Gerstner was running the company. He was a visionary changing the company focus to services and raked in the earnings. There were a lot of tech players in those days but IBM was clearly the "gold standard" as you point out.
    Apr 17 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Love My 'Magic Pants' And My Partners Wear Them Proudly [View article]
    giorgiolb, ......

    Never thought I would have to defend Suze Orman on this site, but here we are. You and perhaps David Fish can't take more than a few minutes of her show. I've watched her a few times, and I'm glad she's there. She provides a valuable service for many, and should be mandatory watching for millions more just in this country.

    It is scary that adults ask the kind of personal financial questions asked of her. It is mostly elementary school and common sense, but without her whom do they learn from? Within U.S. education today kids know how to put on a condom in the 3rd grade, but graduating from high school haven't a clue how to manage their personal finances.
    Mar 22 10:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Love My 'Magic Pants' And My Partners Wear Them Proudly [View article]
    Chuck,

    Good article and clarification. Over the decades the contribution of dividends on total returns is unequivocal.

    Several years ago I read a side by side comparison of total returns for Berkshire and Exxon dating back to 1960 as I recall. The study included acquisitions, stock splits in the case of Exxon/Standard Oil Company, and dividends. The results were surprising I thought. Total return for Exxon exceeded Berkshire A shares.
    Mar 20 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Sells Linn Energy, So You Can Be Sure I Am Going To Buy [View article]
    peanut........."He was also very helpful in 2001........"

    Are you serious? And yes I remember!.... Cramer was the guy on CNBC who was saying things like "back up the truck and shovel in the shares", "greatest buying opportunity ever", and "buy, buy, buy"! After the 2001 and 2002 crash CNBC required a caveat to his recommendations; they were 'His', not CNBC which is true to this day. They didn't do that because as you say he was "very helpful". I don't recall hearing and didn't look into it but my guess is they were being sued. There clearly was a reason and I believe that was obvious.
    Mar 19 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Sells Linn Energy, So You Can Be Sure I Am Going To Buy [View article]
    biobat...............spot on brother! Well said.


    There should be tobacco type warning signs on all these sites "frequent trading can be dangerous to your financial health"
    Mar 18 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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