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gh1616

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  • When Will We Ever Learn? [View article]
    Lance, good article as usual.

    I think an interesting aspect of these market dislocations is the interim time between them has compressed significantly. I'm referring to a significant misappropriation not a 10% correction. We used to talk about the 15 year rule for a rebound from a significant event. To your point the obvious culprit is liquidity which has been/is unprecedented. And there have been a number of other factors from hedge funds to alternative investments which didn't exist except on the margins in past decades. Now average investors can participate in this arena. I suggest there are a lot of moving parts here which are destabilizing in the aggregate. Its a "brave new world" of investing.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    205427.......

    Your post on tax treatment and the energy industry is spot on. This is all hyperbole generated from the fossil fuel of any kind haters. This current government would take the energy industry to court in a nanosecond if they thought they could make a case for unfair tax treatment.
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Followers Are Focusing On The Wrong Thing [View article]
    Actually tunaman4u2 first post had it right......REITs and utilities have sold off on rate movement and the expectation of further action. And correct that this market action could set up some interesting buy opportunities. But I would stay with quality names. Selloffs will be more noticeable with higher leveraged names.
    Jul 18, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Car Sales Are Bad News [View article]
    Good article, thanks for the clarification on ABCT.

    There was a Bloomberg article yesterday discussing where consumer's were spending gas pump savings. The data showed increased spending for car parts, service and other similar items. I suggest there are other factors at play here; we have know for years now that U.S. major job and earnings growth has been in the energy sector and transports for that sector. That growth is for the foreseeable future finished. I'm not ignoring some health care and technology growth, but that has been selective. So despite what the media tells us there is no reason for workers to feel any more sanguine about there jobs or future. That has to play into the spending picture as well. To your point there was clearly pent-up demand for discretionary spending. Now those bills have to be paid with little increase in total income including returns on any savings. Additionally the truth about ACA costs to working families is coming home to roost.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Start To Suggest Now More Than Recession [View article]
    If I may I'll answer this article for the TV economists and the media........

    'THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORAL IMPROVES'!
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Factory Orders Fall Now 8%, Economists Unconvinced [View article]
    The Transports have topped out and now testing the October lows validating your position I believe.
    Jul 3, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is All Hell About To Break Loose? [View article]
    It is unlikely the other PIGS follow in default, or the Eurozone collapses. This will be contained as global developed countries have a stake. The developed countries are all doing the same thing printing and devaluing their way to prosperity. More failures can not be allowed. But Greece is the little weak kid on the street that can be sacrificed, and the Germans just won't pay for their profligate ways any longer.

    But, not to worry about food and medicine as no doubt deals and assurances are being made behind the curtain. Although Greece will have a more difficult time borrowing in the capital markets. Look at it this way...global central banks mandates have been expanded far past original intent. Politicians are calling the shots, and they want to be, or have their party reelected. All said, I agree with the author's risk-off position, the party goes on!
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    We certainly agree on this point! And they are certainly "sharing the feast"! Sadly I don't envision a substantive change in our lifetime. Complacency is such that real change likely requires a constitutional crisis or financial crisis such that we can't print our way out.

    I do firmly believe change is coming at some future inflection point. And it won't be anything like the false change advertised over the last 6 1/2 years. Younger folks than we will have to deal with this mess long-term. I am so very sad for the legacy we, collectively, are leaving them.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    No apology necessary, actually I'm more Libertarian than either of the other party's. In my humble opinion our major political party's and the lobbyist that own them have let the American people down with disastrous policies and ill-conceived laws. The majority of American people I believe know something is terribly wrong but aren't informed enough, or simply don't care enough to understand.

    Principles and ideas, I repeat, don't live in silos. Only Mr. Obama seems to live in a my-way-or-highway world.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    ......"You identify with Big Business and you are suspicious or hostile to Big Government"


    You are jumping to more conclusions if you are aiming that comment at me just because I like Dimon. This is an "investment site" not MoveOn.org. I like what works!

    As for ideology, I'm a firm believer in the risks of plutocracy where ruling by the rich especially applies to big business and big government. I am not hostile to anyone!! But its clear to me that the standard of living for most Americans is suffering and will continue to suffer until better environment exists for small business and entrepreneurs. These folks provide society with the mothers milk of growth.

    Throughout this thread you have consistently placed ideologies, and people in silos, including those of us opining. I disagree with that notion. My experience is life is rarely that simple.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    Michael...........

    As the old legal saying goes 'you can indict a ham sandwich' so as your books author says lets try "to be scrupulous about avoiding the assumption of guilt or innocence".

    I don't know what was involved with the charges of violation of the Bank Secrecy Act. Likely few actually know since the indictment is sealed. But I do know this administration doesn't hid its antipathy toward JPM especially since Dimon criticized them. They don't tolerate criticism. I don't question for a nanosecond they would tear the heart out of JPM and Dimon if they thought their evidence would stand scrutiny in court.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    A lot of 'he said, she said' here. And I note that Eskow, I'm guessing your text here are his words, is very carful to say " tried to be scrupulous about avoiding the assumption of guilt or innocence", interesting comment since the title you used is "Incredibly Guilty".

    And the fine you/he notes was over the 'whale case'. That was not a crime! Bad investment, yes, but not a violation of fiduciary responsibility when earnings can easily cover the loss. I was a shareholder then and I don't feel "deceived", it amounted to a hit for one quarters earnings. He/you blast the bank over risk control process. Okay, that's fair, don't invest there. I believe some of the fines and accusations have been little more than extortion. Dimon, a democrat, has been critical of the Obama administration. As vindictive as they have proven to be there is no way they wouldn't bring indictments if they could stand. And lets remember JPM didn't need a bailout.

    If you hadn't guessed I'm a Dimon fan. He's made me a lot of money over the years including prior to JPM and I own now and have owned full positions for the accounts I manage. I personally know a senior executive at the bank and understand Dimon is a tough CEO to work for, but that's fine. He's not Steve Jobs tough but he along with John Stumpf are in my opinion the best bankers globally. I wish we had more like them.
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    Michael........."We need to reform Wall Street"


    Reform Wall Street? Again? The SEC commissioners, Daniel Gallagher by example has stated what they are being asked to do is already nonsense and about 50% of Dodd-Frank regulations haven't even been written yet. Its insane!

    And you say Jamie Dimon has admitted to about 30 felonies?? What would those felonies be? I'm sure Mr. Obama and his AG would love to know!

    You don't mention Jon Corzine who was charged by the CFTC and he's the one that should be in a cell next to Madoff I believe but walked away from it all thanks to his powerful democrat "socialism" friends! But you say we capitalism admirers are worshiping the false god?

    Oh I get where you are coming from to be sure!!
    Jun 26, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    Michael........

    Its not clear where your epistle above gets this discussion thread. You outline years of republican - capitalist, democrat - socialist, then use the example of Nixon admonishing readers not to take the outline literally. The fact is centrist republicans and centrist democrats support both socialistic and capitalistic propositions all the time, and have over U.S. history. Its called compromise and its worked fairly well except when we have experienced a financial crisis where capitalists (businesses) are accused of broad-brushed malfeasance. As I've previously opined most politicians are not as concerned with righting wrongs from a few nefarious capitalists as they are about gaining control. Hence the comment from Obama's advisor Rahm Emanuel "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

    And of course, I repeat, there will always be winners and losers. Cheating is not necessary. He who makes the rules, or helps make the rules, wins the game. Recently I give you by example the ACA law!
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    Michael........."Its not capitalism OR socialism"


    Interesting perspective. While I've seen this argument before I don't accept that socialism is the natural evolution of capitalism. The U.S. is largely capitalistic however we confiscate personal property for distribution under the appearance of fairness. So, to use your metaphor we have summer and winter. Egalitarianism sounds directionally correct except in practice the results are always perverted. There are always, and will always be in my opinion winners and losers regardless of doctrine labels.
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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