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gh1616

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  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    David,

    My reference was Old Sir John's four stages of a market cycle.


    Cheers
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    Hello David,

    Good to hear from you again. And as usual your posts are well thought out, a pleasure to read. I trust you're surviving the market volatility well. We have been way overdue for a correction. Always opportunities until we see signs of euphoria, the Templeton test. Then I start to worry.

    To your point, I agree, its a tough balancing act. Both contain their own versions of a death spiral.

    All the best,
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    I think where your argument falls apart is we don't use less commodities to build a house, we use different commodities. Name any industry, auto manufacturers don't use much chrome anymore. Ford now builds an all aluminum F150. That's not a bad thing, economies adapt.

    I well remember the Southeast U.S. was devastated by the demise of the U.S. apparel industry. Many experts agreed that exporting that entire industry would create permanent economic depression for that segment of the country. Once the issue was out of the Northeast newspaper headlines they were left alone to figure it out. The rest is history with their manufacturing, technology, and financial markets renaissance. Success beyond anyone's expectations.

    I believe more central planning is not the solution, its the problem.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    David,

    Well stated!!
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    Your well stated focus is on the money supply. At some point along this continuum we need to consider the other side of the equation which is debt. While painful to achieve normalized rates have had a self governing benefit of damping financial engineering which is rampant today. I fear your solution would bring us more of the same.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    User,

    Good point. That's because wages, Social Security, and other forms of income lag inflation.

    I find it ironic having lived/worked through the 1970's that some now pine for inflation. Its very difficult and painful to get that genie back in the bottle. So folks should be careful what they ask for.
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Having To Do 'It' Again Is All You Need To Know [View article]
    Mitch,

    I completely agree!
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    True statistically, but alternative job opportunities existed in most of the country then for skilled workers given economic growth in the 80's, and 90's as there was less slack in the labor force. Plus the benefits package made up a greater percentage of total compensation even within smaller companies. So we experienced the evolution of people not married to jobs as they were in previous generations. If you were an employer in those years, which I was, you knew you needed to take care of good employees or they would be lured away very quickly.

    Surely you are not trying to argue that those years led into the demise of the middle class we see today given our anemic growth economic reality!

    As for the bailout, I assume you mean the banks, you state that without it the economy would have completely crashed. That's a counterfactual argument you can't prove any more than your challenge of EarMoney above. Although I'm not arguing that point because as an investor I have done very well given the years of free money with its resultant financial engineering plus the series of QE's. I would rather the government hadn't picked winners and losers but so be it.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    Oh I think EarMoney can "generalize" the pain pretty safely. The fact is since 2008 the wealthy got a bail-out, the poor got a hand-out, and the middle class got sold-out.

    When the politicians say they are all for the middle-class and that's where you are, you better grab your wallet and hold on dearly.
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Second Wave [View article]
    Or just buy the super-majors super cheap and enjoy the dividends and long term ride. If you feel aggressive use leaps options contracts on these equities, the XLE, etc. Why sweat over long dated futures contracts. Not a great place for retail investors, but just my opinion.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Or Not, Europe Goes Nowhere [View article]
    MFITZ............"2. 1970s CPI shock........"


    You have made some excellent points with your posts that I appreciate are experienced based. While I can't disagree with your solution set other than to say I suppose we can continue to muddle along indefinitely. Although I hope there is a #3 because I don't see us having the political will in this country to do a deleveraging, and a CPI shock would likely be many times the 1970's which I remember too well!

    All said I'm just an old stock-picker who, like Truman, went through my career looking for a one-handed economist. I do enjoy reading comments from David and now from you. Please keep them coming.

    Cheers
    Aug 16, 2015. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    Yes I agree it will survive despite the claims by GOP hopefuls to overturn it. That train has left the station. But what we have now won't survive, my opinion, as it leads us down a path of more consolidation and higher costs.

    I agree with many opining here we are on our way to a single payer government system. Its the only thing that makes any sense. Although the end result has to be affordable for the country, which I think most are not comprehending, and based on comments here we are clearly not ready to deal with that eventuality. There is a good article in Barron's this week on the subject. I suspect that when the day comes where we must get-real with the costs a national Medicaid plan is likely where we will land.
    Aug 14, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    pennywatchdog............ like Carson..............I'm a neurosurgeon"

    Well your bio says you're a retired nurse! Hummm, so I guess your a liar too. That figures, and I don't believe for a minute you like Dr. Carson who really is a neurosurgeon. But he's also a fiscal conservative.

    I'm not a fan of the Divider-in-Chief but I'm also not deluded about racism. Regardless the arguments I've read regarding the ACA and the arguments against a government single payer system are disagreements about government policy, NOT RACE!!!! Like others here I'm sick of you people on the left pulling the race-card for every disagreement!!

    So if Dr Carson is the nominee we will see about "liberal" criticism won't we? Just know with certainty when you disagree, as you will with a fiscal conservative, don't look for any love and understanding. As far as I'm concerned if you disagree with Dr Carson its because you're an "ignorant racist"!

    Cheers
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    fripp1...........

    Yes I recall those days well including the ruse of a meeting where Mr. Obama met with legislators of both party's on the ACA. That is where he infamously said "elections have consequences" and offered zero compromise. I believe it was David Axelrod who uttered We won, deal with it, or words to that effect. So you are correct bipartisanship was dead. But unlike you I don't blame McConnell. Anyway it didn't matter, the dem's had a veto proof congress until Scott Brown was seated.

    As for who wrote the bill, it wasn't big health care insurers as you suggest. Look at the history of their stocks. They were as concerned as everyone else. Although it has worked out very well for them to be sure!
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obamacare Economic Disaster? [View article]
    pennywatchdog.........

    This thread was a pointed but civil discussion until your abusive comment. And it is abusive and could be reported as such.

    Maybe you are use to that language on your liberal sites but most frown on it at SA. The criticism of ACA and other business unfriendly policies of this administration have never been, that I've read, about the President's skin color but about his administration's politics! So you have no right to call people racist just for being on the other side of an issue.

    It will be interesting to see how liberals like you react to Dr. Ben Carson if he is successful winning the GOP. And he is doing very well in the polls thank you. Is liberal criticism of Dr. Carson's platform racist?
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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