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gh1616

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  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Sumflow........

    Well you follow it closer than I. But my source says insiders bought $500k worth of KMP recently. Maybe things have changed given the valuation?
    Mar 5, 2014. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    PV......."What's your experience..........?"

    My career. Although I didn't start out as a partner. Its on my bio, what I'm willing to discuss on an open Web site.
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Sumflow.......KMP 6% institutional ownership vs KMI 40%, also as has been alluded to in this thread of comments, management owns 28% of KMI. Management owns little KMP despite some recent insider buying.
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    PV..........

    I did not say I would lump all sensational news into headline risk. Most "sensational" news is regarding business units, rarely the entire company, accounting or otherwise. I suggest investors due diligence with these matters. Items that make a splash will likely impact a company's fundamentals. If you have as you say been an investor for 40 years while ignoring these news items you are indeed a rarity.
    Mar 4, 2014. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Hi Value......
    I agree that Kinder has been a good operator for a long time, and I used KMP for many years until we thought EPD, also a good operator in this space, was a better value play. In late 2008 we started building positions, swapping from KMP. Hence my interest in this article. And I would certainly not short these shares.

    As investing is all about risk/reward I would suggest that it is not productive for average investors to dig their heals in because they don't like the messenger questioning the company much less buy more shares. However, for those in this thread of posts that think that's a good idea, I say have at it that's what makes a market. I would also note that besides Hedgeye the Baron's article included a note of concern from a Jefferies energy analyst questioning low planned maintenance expenditures. Now I know KM feels it has answered those questions. Maybe, maybe not. Historically these things take a long time to play out.

    The real question is the sustainability of the high dividend. If I were going to buy KM shares I would look to KMI where there is greater institutional ownership. But, I wouldn't consider the shares until I saw a solid support level. It might be instructive for investors to look at LINE, it bounced along a floor support from July to November.

    Finally, you noted Jim Chanos claim that he called Enron. I listened to him discuss his supposedly prescient call. But guys claiming they made a similar call are legend. I can tell you we researched what was happening real time and the only negative we could find was some local Houston business reporter who questioned the accounting, but was way off the mark regarding what we all later learned was really going on. I had a friend who was running investments for the trust department of a large regional bank. They held the shares in accounts into the teens before selling. So while you may be convinced of Chanos' claim, call me a skeptic.
    Mar 4, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    mp..........I agree, the degree to which individual investors depend upon an analyst opinion buy-side would be my recommendation too. And a part of my due diligence is to read their comments as well. But least we not forget. those of us who have been in this business a long time should counsel caveat emptor, this is not an easy business! There are lots of sad examples where analysts of all stripes have loved a company stock, assuring investors there was good value there all the way to the edge of the proverbial cliff. And please know; I'm not saying this is the case with KM! We don't know that.

    For more decades than I'd like to remember I have had a cast-iron rule that has treated me well as I believe it would others, I don't like headline risk! If earnings growth, free cash flow, and ROE looks okay and there's headline risk I'm out. By example 15 years ago I got in arguments with some, a few in my own firm about an energy business called Enron. Analysts loved it, very heavy institutional ownership and sponsorship. Outrageous to question the company. We had big positions in ours and clients accounts. We started selling calls in the $90's where the stock had stalled. No sophisticated contracts, just simple. Sold again at $85 then $80. Mid $70's we sold all of our positions on this long term holding and booked gains, but it was painful. Everybody, including clients thought we were nuts. And you couldn't argue their numbers. The headline risk was criticism that the CFO was also running its partnerships. The company had all the arguments of why this was SOP and the analysts and business media lapped it up.

    All said you don't know what you don't know. So my opinion is everything is a secondary indicator except the market action, and that includes analysts opinions. Watch what big money does including trumping insiders, beware of churn. (Sumflow above has it right I believe; "Nothing should be a substitute for your own judgement".
    Mar 2, 2014. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Ha,ha,ha......Okay James, I'm sure you know best. I was trying to be helpful. No need to get defensive. BTW its Barron's not Barren's.
    Feb 25, 2014. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    James....

    Guess you've never heard the old expression in this business; Never catch a falling knife! Better to let the dust settle a bit. See if anything else comes out. Plenty of time to understand the financial impact if any, then it could be a great buy entry point. Both KMP & KMI are churning with very high volume near the end of the day. Finishing off the lows could be good or it could be shares moving from strong hands to weak hands. If you're convinced this is all about nothing today you might buy a call contract. Lot cheaper if you're wrong.
    Feb 24, 2014. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    Well there are cash flow question similarities with LINE. The crux of the issue there as I understood it was the allegation that it was overstating the cash flow available for distribution by not deducting the cost of financial derivatives. And Barron's was not the only financial journal questioning LINE at the time. Value Line by example questioned the debt to equity ratio.

    I suggest as investors we want the information, the more the better especially when questions arise. Through your own analysis you can decide to accept or reject the data.
    Feb 24, 2014. 10:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Is Wrong On Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    I completely disagree, and suggest its a waste of time to "shoot the messenger" here. I read the article and agree they did lean on Kaiser's analysis. There's a lot of moving parts here, and you can take it or leave it that's what makes a market. But as a long time Barron's reader they have far more Picks than Pans.
    Feb 24, 2014. 09:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Said Goodbye To Lorillard, Inc. [View article]
    228,.....
    Thanks for your comment. To answer your question....I have never liked headline risk. I like the company, have owned it for years, but full disclosure I have been out since the first of the year. Investors should probably grasp the fact that any action against LO's menthol products will likely hit the stock hard. I have it trading 15x $3.49 2014 estimate. That's reasonably fully valued in my opinion. Its historical high is 17x. Priced close to historical perfection no doubt the dividend is holding the valuation. I would just keep a close eye on developments and you might consider buying some protection with a put contract(s) depending on the size of your position.

    Hope that's of some help.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Said Goodbye To Lorillard, Inc. [View article]
    Hard to imagine the virtual destruction of a company that has been around and paid a dividend since before the Civil War. Is it possible? Of course, no-telling what the government might do today.

    However, it should be noted the government, specifically state governments, need tobacco companies and their fine free cash flow to fund the tobacco bonds. This is where the states have borrowed against the future (imagine that) receipts of revenue settlements with tobacco companies. The money is spent from bonds sold far into the future. (think litigation settlement firm)

    In fairness to the contributor I do agree its prudent to be mindful of the risk which is clearly not trivial.
    Feb 19, 2014. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Run For The Hills [View article]
    Brad, good article

    Despite insider buying the rise in long term rates has eroded NLY
    unrealized gains position too, down to $2 billion from $4 billion late in 2012.
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Invincible JPMorgan [View article]
    What a surprise another article trashing JPM and by proxy Americas big banks. So what's new? You convolute the Madoff issue with the mortgage businesses they were coerced into buying with a blanket indictment of JPM.

    No one in New York had the balls to go after Madoff including the SEC!! If you did, and you were wrong it was a career ending decision!! So by your bio you were in the financial press, where the hell were you?

    You are just like all the guys that paraded through CNBC after Enron's collapse telling all who would listen that they knew it was a fraud. Bullshit!!!
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coca-Cola Company: Unlocking Value In 2014 And Beyond [View article]
    This is an old argument of when its appropriate for companies to implement a repurchase program even if the board provides plan approval. I am a long time investor in KO, almost as long as Buffett. And I believe management is making the right call not to buyback shares at this time. I have the shares trading 20x $2.23 a 7% y/y earnings growth. Shares have always traded at a premium valuation but this is near the high for the last several years.

    Reinvesting to grow the business, and growing the dividend is the right call, just my opinion.
    Jan 6, 2014. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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