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gh1616

gh1616
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  • My Mad Method: Replacing The MLPs In My IRA, Part 1 [View article]
    Be careful with SRV. that's not an unknown opportunity & it trades at a significant premium to its net asset value

    A better way to drive income might be to just own RDSB. Rock solid balance sheet, cheaply valued, I have 9x '13 estimates, & a 5% dividend. Suggest the B shares if interested. These are traded on the London exchange not Amsterdam, so no foreign withholding tax.
    Feb 14 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Replacing The MLPs In My IRA, Part 1 [View article]
    Good catch here JD.

    KMI might be another consideration, lower yield than LNCO but, better technically. I would think any GP would work here.
    Feb 14 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xerox: Review Of Growth, Buybacks And R&D [View article]
    Good point taplinger.....

    If you were an investor in this stock in the last decade you probably have an ax to grind! Once a fine old growth company, now the definition of a value-trap
    Feb 11 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is General Electric Worth? [View article]
    Selling here would not be selling low if you have been in GE for awhile. Not that I'm suggesting that, but I have it trading $22.50 & 16x '13 estimates. That's not cheap. 2014 estimates are for 10% earnings growth, a better barometer than dividend growth. I see it as a hold here & collect the 3.5% dividend. And I'm eating my cooking with my shares.
    To the point I think retiredsquid is making above.....it is a conglomerate with, I believe, lots of locked shareholder value. But its business units are doing well which hasn't been the case for a long time. The big question is the finance unit.
    Feb 8 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rodney Dangerfield Of Closed-End Funds [View article]
    While there is some correlation with the S&P HTD is not a surrogate for an index fund. I can compare dogs with cats but I'm not sure what that tells me.

    But, the original comparison post was since the market crash lows. The numbers I have are HTD Q2 2009 closing low $5.35 now trading about $19. SPY Q2 2009 closing low $68.92 now trading about $151. And that does not include dividends. As Douglas said above HTD has outperformed, & will in an up market. Not difficult, its hardware-store math my friends.
    Feb 5 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rodney Dangerfield Of Closed-End Funds [View article]
    Douglas........

    Agreed, HTD has crushed the SPY since the crash lows, no question due to leverage &, also due to its concentration particularly with financials performing better. To its credit it survived the crash. If you recall there were significant questions regarding all CEF's whether they could cover there leverage given issues with large operators like Nuveen & Pimco.

    All said, comparing HTD with the SPY is a bit like comparing apples with oranges I believe.
    Feb 5 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco, An Even Better Buy By Buying Robbins & Myers [View article]
    Nick..........

    Good analysis on NOV. Regarding technical's I agree with the data points you highlighted & would add since the early 2011 high's, which has proved resistance since, the stock has delivered higher low's on each consolidation phase. That is reasonably bullish in that the stock is trying to go higher. One would only have to look at the many positive fundamentals to understand why.

    All said, I like the company too, & while there is a good 10 to 14 points running room before hitting resistance, this stock is not for the weak-kneed investor. You have already mentioned the beta. The stock needs a catalyst.
    Jan 11 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sole Apple-Beater: Samsung Electronics [View article]
    James.......

    Agree completely! As I see it AAPL is retesting low $500's it put in May 2012 before its run to $700. It may have been an interesting short idea when it broke down after the rally attempt in October. But, I wouldn't want to short this stock here!

    To your point regarding expectations; I have AAPL trading only 12x the $48.72 estimate for '13 & that represents only 10% earnings growth. At more than 2 points below the market, that's not even a growth stock valuation. And estimates for '14 show earnings growth of 17%.

    I was interested in ChicagoB article take on Samsung. To your point, NOK is not even on the radar screen anymore. With losses estimated for '13 & '14 it seems more of a delisting bet, & I suspect the dividend is not sustainable given the paltry cash flow although I haven't, & don't intend to look at its financials.
    Jan 5 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Long-Term Risk Vs. Reward Investment For 2013 [View article]
    Joseph.....

    Good article, the ETF's appear to have put in a technical floor since June. Its a bumpy ride though to be sure.

    Least we forget the old axiom that says "the market can stay irrational longer than your ability to stay solvent", I agree with those that believe its early. With the Fed's balance sheet highly leveraged & with no end in sight, suggests we haven't seen all the gimmicks to control rates yet.

    As most of us believed through the mortgage debacle this can't end well. So when it breaks its likely to be the mother of all breaks.
    Dec 28 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy HSBC For Asian Growth, Strong Funding And Attractive Valuations [View article]
    Price......

    Good article, & your take on HSBC squares with comments from Barron's European Trader article this week by Jonathan Buck. A good read if you haven't seen it.
    Dec 22 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Xerox A Value Trap For Investors? [View article]
    Saibus........

    Good article, well reasoned position. XRX has been a mess for over a decade when they received a Wells Notice for accounting irregularities. They have never recovered in my opinion.

    Agree totally that the acquisition of ACS was, as you state, a lifeline. Without it XRX would long ago have become a small & inconsequential segment of a larger company. In the early 2000's I thought HPQ might make a play for them when assets were cheap after the tech/telecom crash. Word on the street in those days was it was trying to sell itself. But, no takers.

    Management in this company has been weak for a long time. Yes, they seem to be committed to services today. But, despite the ACS acquisition they were dragged there kicking & screaming. They had dogmatically pursued hardware when other more envisioned office services firms were transitioning to services. IBM's Lou Gerstner paved the way for office services success in the 90's. But, XRX management "watched that train leave the station", even though they had a successful services unit at the time.

    Its too bad. We did well with Xerox in previous decades. As for the stock today I completely agree, they need new leadership. I suggest its not clear how well ACS is even integrated. Evidently from optifan post above the employees don't think so.
    Dec 22 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: The Best Mortgage 'REIT' At A Healthy Discount To Book Value [View article]
    TL.....

    Excellent analysis, thanks.

    I show '13 estimates down 35% from '12. Any thoughts on this? I would think it might be moving the other way?
    Dec 20 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: The Best Mortgage 'REIT' At A Healthy Discount To Book Value [View article]
    brewsterm5......

    Yes, Canadian withholding. Best in a tax deferred account. But, suggest look at the financials here first. Questionable how they're covering the dividend I believe.
    Dec 20 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With A Fiscal Cliff Deal, Stocks And The U.S. Economy Will Unravel In 2013 [View article]
    untrusting..........

    I don't disagree that our federal government has evolved into something not intended by the founders. Its inefficient & incompetent in much that it does, with entirely too much influence from special interests. This latest news story is a perfect example; a group of 17 influential democrat congress men & women, all of whom voted for the Affordable Care Act now want the tax on medical device makers dropped! What a surprise! From the group that gave us the Cornhusker Kickback!

    As for a possible federal solution of an Italian approach......No thanks. Italy also gave the world Mussolini who made the trains run on time, under penalty of death. Italy's socialist government, by any other name, also has had, will have over 20% unemployment, & precious little growth.

    I think the U.S. would be far better served getting back to a true constitutional government. Term limits would help. The obvious point is the founders did not envision people making a career out of representing constituents. Initially it was a sacrifice to leave the farm or business to serve.

    As for my comment regarding scurrilous attacks: Come on untrusting......you very well know what I mean! You can make your point without using terms like "grotesque mendacity" regarding an entire political party when you're talking about one politician. You don't think thats 'over the top' rhetoric? That comment is not intended for civil discussion, its "in your face". Makes those like me want to challenge all the points above it, as I believe it would you. And thats part of why we are where we are as a country.
    Dec 13 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With A Fiscal Cliff Deal, Stocks And The U.S. Economy Will Unravel In 2013 [View article]
    O'Neill was right, debt matters. Like taxes it is a drag on the economy. Need proof, what do you think would happen if the 10 year Treasury yield suddenly was normalized?

    Look this is not an ideological issue with me. I like & support the proposition that a rising tide lifts all boats. I was in the asset management business during the tech/telecom crash. It was acknowledged at the time the worst misallocation capital in the history of capital markets. That point could be argued but, the inevitable crash was bad, could have been worse. Then 9/11. I maintain Bush did the right thing cutting taxes especially on capital formation. The idea was obvious, to motivate individual investment & avoid a bad recession. I contend it worked, & other than knowledgeable investors he gets zero credit. Where I disagree with Bush was he didn't curb spending during the end of his first term or second. In fact the omnibus spending bill of 2004 was the largest spending bill ever passed by congress. It rightly cost the republicans the congress in 2006. So the scurrilous attacks on fiscal conservatives by sites like your news wire are unfounded.
    Dec 12 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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