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I am Chief Investment Officer for the Wolf Family Security Trust Advisor Firm. This is a family and friends trust that grew out of my grandfather broker/dealer started in Washington D.C. in the 1960s. We manage multiple Wolf Family Trust set up by Ms. Judith L. Wolf, and Mr. Emanuel L. Wolf. It... More
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Sustainable Living through Smart Investing
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  • Facebook Home Is Going To Be A Winner. FB Will Beat IPO Price Within 14 Months.

    Current financial analysts (of Wall St variety) don't have the personal and intimate enough of an experience with Facebook to really understand.

    The technology starts to be hard to differentiate for most institutional and retail stock pickers.

    But for some very lucky (hard work) reason me and my group of research advisors and analysts are consistent early adopters of successful tech and telecom public companies' products.

    Like Most of them were in the beta group for LKLD Or like were one of the first to start watching NTFX on their computers. Or like jumped on board APPL once they bought their first iPhone.

    It will be very hard for any generation that are currently in their 30s, 40s or older to really get Facebook. Some of us get Twitter because they work and understand media, and broadcast. They kind of understand the real intrinsic value of real time updates, and "quotes," as well as real time celebrity (of any kind, including the reality tv kind , and insta-fame (or fame for a min) kind be it by disaster distress, heroism, crime, or good deed.

    But Wall St. doesn't get Facebook. But wait some mom's get it, once they join their kids in a cavalcade of family photos and updates.

    But I am telling you Facebook Home is bigger than any Analyst realizes.

    It takes the free but amazing (yes free) Google OS (like windows) for the mobile phone called "ta da:" Android. Android in record time already has 60% of the mobile phone market share. And it was taken from the likes of Microsoft, Apple, and Cell Phone makers OS (all the old cell phone formats).

    How?

    Like Grateful Dead music, it's free. The internet loves free!! And Google has given programmers, and app makers support on their free language like never, ever, ever has been done before.

    Apple has prided itself on controlling the Apple OS both in the computer and the iSeries (pod, phone,pad). And Facebook could not program a Facebook Home for iPhone because Apple will not let any company access its source code.

    MSFT never really could make the transition from computers to Mobile, although we are hearing some good things about Windows 8 Mobile, and they might get a few single digit gains back on their current single digit Mobile OS market share.

    But Google ?? Android is very good, and fast improving. The Android Mobile OS is free for companies with very good programmers (like all the Great Programmers at FB) to program their very own version using a flexible programmable Android OS. And the FB programmers program Home to maximize all the features available to a Facebook user using a Computer, actually even easier than using FB on a computer web browser (be it explorer or chrome or firefox). And the Cell phone makers love it. And now Samsung loves FB Home (a special Android OS modified by FB to be essentially a FB Mobile OS.

    And the old bastards (all the Wall St stock analysts that poo-poo Facebook Home). Don't really understand that. FB has the best of both worlds, they can personalize Android to make FB the most accessible mobile multi-dimensional (for lack of a better term to describe the future flexible cell phone activities) that Home is starting to produce.

    Those Analyst don't even realize they soon will be using Home, especially as it expands to integrate with Twitter, Word Press, Instagram, Apple iPhones (as an app though) etc.

    From the view of all the generations incorporated in the 20s and younger cell phone users (29 and younger) it is growing inevitable that Facebook Home will be a big part of the communications of all cell phone users.

    Just like everyone wanted Windows once it became the Computer OS that had all the stuff everyone wanted to use (programs, office, explorer).

    Everyone will use Facebook to communicate to Family, Friends, Love Interests, Fans, and Followers, and than inevitably ....Business and Professional Users!! Why?

    Because (still to be discovered and finalized) it will be the easiest to use, to communicate to multiple people, multiple medias, and multiple locations, meeting times, party announcement wedding, scheduled trips (personal or business where the family, or colleagues, or your Pod breaks up (amusement part, company campus, coordinated business conference or event or Rome).

    And once you get sucked into how easy it is to communicate to all your friends at once. How easy it is to not be limited to 100 something characters for a text message or multiple texts, or MMS.

    Facebook is better than texting, and once everyone realizes that....stock up!

    Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Facebook Home, Android, Chrome OS, and Google and any and all related stocks are going to be winners (some big, some small) because they are on the edge of programming for the internet, which at its heart, the one that wins is the free one.

    See Netscape Navigator vs. Explorer for notes.
    See Windows Mobile OS and Apple Mobile OS vs. Android.

    For notes, the free better edgier one always wins. and right now bet all your bottom dollars on Facebook.

    Hanging around $27 for the week, no real gain or loss in last 2. Get in slowly, no rush, Buy on Dips, and be ready for break-outs on larger volume.

    Technical Analysis: Moving averages are converging upward, lagging indicators are mostly in middle ground between over-bought and over sold.

    Be careful, but be slow buyer. Always ready to sell if it breaks down more than 5% or 9% depending on your risk tolerance.

    But never take your eye off of FB because if the Facebook Home phones (built on Android technology) start selling well.... Look out!!

    signed,
    Alexander L. Wolf
    Chief Investment Officer
    Wolf Family Trust

    Disclosure: I am long FB. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: FB, long-ideas
    Apr 14 6:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Warren Buffet Willing To Restructure Deal For Goldman Sachs. GS Stock Moves Toward 52 Week High On Buffet's Continued Support

    It was uncovered today that Warren Buffet worked with Goldman Sachs to restructure the warrant underpinning. The restructure allowed Buffet to take all the profit generated by the warrants, he gained as ownership purchased with 30+ billion dollars of Berkshire Hathaway, in stock.

    The restructure also helps Goldman Sachs financial statements, and as mentioned below benefited GS in many different aspects, which has been reflected in the price of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) higher this morning on the warrant restructure and execution of Warren Buffet position, or better put the actual execution of his warrants and warrant position by Goldman Sachs, set Warren up to not have to pay any money in return to getting all the profit owed to him by GS due to the fact the stock price is far above the warrant price.

    The stock price is currently greater than 30 dollars above the warrant price that allows Warren Buffet like a call option to buy the stock at the strike price which given almost a year ago is now much lower than the current stock price was has been in a major uptrend on the weekly charts, and now heading towards a year in an uptrend with only small corrections that corresponded with corrections in overall markets and indexes.

    GS consolidation has been tighter than the overall averages, which can easily be seen on the weekly charts. When a stock has a tighter consolidation, it displays strength and a lower beta which means the stock is less correlated with the market and starting to show independent strength based on the company accelerating EPS and Sales over many quarters even years.

    This independent strength than leads to a increase in Relative Strength line usually shown on a stock chart as a line that shows how the stock is performing against its most relevant index.

    For GS to be able to give Buffet stock, without having to execute the trade, which would require Buffet to put up some cash as a marginable security against the trade, and the company would have to take a hit to shareholders' equity on the balance sheet as well as a loss, which could also be considered increased debt and even debt interest.

    In the past Warren Buffet has said that Goldman Sachs is one of the best investment banker/broker/m&a advisers, etc firm on Wall Street.

    His initial multi billion dollar equity investment gave Goldman Sachs a lot of money to do a powerful amount of Wall St. deals that created hundreds of millions of dollars in increased revenues. This increased sales and EPS pushed the stock price up over the last year.

    Now with Warren Buffet taking no money out of Goldman Sachs but in essence increasing his investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, ownership position (and accompanying exposure to loss on company bad performance including decreased sales, or decreased EPS that would lower shareholder equity, and decrease the market share price.)

    But Warren Buffet does not seem to worry the above could happen, he thinks taking more stock at a discounted, well from one point of analysis "free stock" that every dollar of value is a dollar of profit for BK. Pretty ingenious. The stock was bought with a value differential of a minor derivative that has been around a long time and used for IPO as well as M&A when there is a exchange of stock used as the payment financial vehicle for the take-over.

    Warrants were popular back in the day and continue to be popular because they give the buyers and sellers exec mgmt, corporate officers, or owners an option-like instrument that is leveraged and gives them multiple returns on a upside or positive moves. The upside over using an option in the offering is that it does not count against the float, or total number of shares outstanding, so there is no dilution to the value of each investors' shares, which preserves the rounds of investors monies from being diluted and lowering the return on the investors' money or some cases even causing a loss.

    So based on his actions and willingness to take his warrant profits in stock speak much as always "warrants speak louder than word"

    Successful investing to you

    Alexander L Wolf

    Chief Investment Officer

    Wolf Family Trust

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Mar 26 12:51 PM | Link | Comment!
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