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Alpha Man

Alpha Man
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  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    I'm trying to understand, from a conceptual standpoint, why the premium from 52 weekly puts is so much greater than the premium from an annual put, assuming volatility, etc is equal.
    Jun 18 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    Right, the premium from the written weekly puts will increase as IV spikes. This is a hard concept to grasp in that writing puts is a bullish strategy but the large (relatively speaking) premiums from the weeklies in a downturn can protect your portfolio.

    Since I've mostly just used OTM puts to hedge my portfolio, I have a question- why is the premium from 52 weekly puts or 12 monthly puts much greater than a 12 month put? I don't understand that conceptually
    Jun 17 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    Reel Ken,

    I would presume, if I'm understanding the strategy correctly, in a big drop you get the bogeys first while IV is low and the Birdies later as IV increases and the market periodically bounces during the decline?
    Jun 17 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    DIdn't S&P just upgrade the US credit rating?
    Jun 16 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    I'll give you deserved props for the Apple and gold call. I haven't read Mauldin recently but back in 2009 he predicted a "muddle through" economy and I think that's what we have. I also think your comment about QE having no economic effect is not entirely true. Is Bernanke pushing on a string, to some degree yes, has QE helped housing and the auto industry, I say yes. I guess we'll see in 6 months what transpires.
    Jun 13 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    "The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty"
    would imply a pretty serious drop in the market yet your article only calls for a correction which wouldn't be that unusual considering we've gone almost straight up for 7 months. Have you abandoned your call for a crash? If not could you suggest a no later than date?
    Could you identify a quarter when GDP turns negative? If I'm not mistaken you started with this prediction in fall of 2012. In March you said Cypress was the catalyst, I think you've also predicted other points of iminent crash although I'd need to re-read your articles to be certain. If one was following your crash advice with their portfolio they would've missed some nice gains up to the present.

    At what point do we know if you're right or not, or is this an open-ended prediction?
    Jun 13 01:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    Interest rates are going to skyrocket becuase the economy is booming?
    Jun 13 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    JS

    Am I right in understanding that you're calling for about a 12% or so correction? Are we still going to crash, presumably before thend of the year?
    Jun 12 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    SO,

    After spending some time studying this, I can see how it could work. I've mainly used OOM puts to hedge and sometimes written puts on stocks I like, so I'm no option expert. I have no experience with weeklies but it seems other shorter term puts could also work on the long side, perhaps with less cumulative premium than the weeklies. I'm not sure at this point how to model the premium from the weeklies but it's starting to make some sense. Very interesting approach!

    AM
    Jun 11 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    SO,

    I'm confused about how one's portfolio is protected by the long puts when one is short an equal number of short term puts? I'm no expert on options, but I know the delta on the longer term puts is lower than the short term puts so it seems that during a bear week, the short term short puts would tend to negate the long puts hedging the portfolio?
    Jun 8 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing? [View article]
    I think Daniel Moser has presented a pretty compelling argument as to the feasability of this strategy, unless I'm missing something. I'd be interested in hearing your rebuttal as your strategy, if it worked would be quite attractive.
    Jun 6 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Dump SodaStream Too Soon [View article]
    IIRC, I read it in an article here on Seeking Alpha a few weeks or so ago. I'd have to search for it. I don't follow the company, my son bought one of the kits a while back and I read the article out of curiousity. The author laid out some figures which suggested that people were buying the product but not following thru with ongoing usage.
    Jun 6 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Dump SodaStream Too Soon [View article]
    I read that the rate of purchase of replacement supplies is declining. This implies that the machine usage after purchase is not that great. It seems that would call into question the company's business model. Can you comment?
    Jun 6 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear's Best Effort At Making A Case For The Bulls [View article]
    JS,

    A couple of questions, you're predicting a crash and previously said a recession is a certainty, Do you think the recession has started? if not, when do you think it will start? Do you think we will crash prior to the start of a recession?

    AlphaMan
    Jun 3 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bearish On Seagate Technology & Western Digital [View article]
    "You are a complete buffoon to think cloud storage doesn't use hard drives."

    I had that same thought when I read the article but thought perhaps I was missing something, glad you pointed it out. I don't really understand the bearish case on these two companies based on SSD and demand for storage in the cloud.
    May 30 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
207 Comments
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