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Bob Peticolas

Bob Peticolas
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  • QE3: Ineffective Parachute for Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Dana, "cluck cluck" or whatever a chicken hawk sounds like ;-)
    Sep 15 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Ineffective Parachute for Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    jstratt, I liked most of your post until I got to:

    >We still have debt of approximately 360% of GDP

    Everything I've seen says the high-end estimate of US debt to GDP is just a little over 100%.
    See:

    http://bit.ly/QhDtuu

    and zerohedge is on the high end of estimates.

    Where did you get this number?
    Sep 15 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Reluctantly Long The Market [View article]
    Southwest Michigan Trader: I have a Masters in Finance from a major business school. I'm quite capable of managing my money. Why don't you simply explain why inflation is like a tax increase rather than try to insult me. As I stated originally, if you're paying your taxes with inflated dollars, why is there a difference?
    Sep 15 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Reluctantly Long The Market [View article]
    The measure of debt for a country is debt/GDP. If you cut government spending by $1, you cut debt by $1. In the very simple case, you cut GDP by $1 too (i.e., $1 less paid in Social Security is $1 less in income for the recipient). So in the simple case, cutting spending does not change the Debt/GDP ratio. BUT, it gets worse, because of the multiplier effect, GDP actually goes down by more than $1. So the Debt/GDP ratio actually gets worse.

    It's amazing to me how many people who have strong opinions about economic issues never took a course in Economics!
    Sep 15 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Ineffective Parachute for Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    I think the Fed's move will likely be very productive. Targeting unemployment and buying MBS could very well improve the housing market and launch the economy. It was a bold move. Keep in mind that an improvement in housing will improve many other industries as well.

    I also think the best thing that can happen is for us to go OVER the fiscal cliff. That will dramatically reduce the deficit. Yes. It will cause a mild recession in 2013, but it will put the economy on a much better footing overall. Moody's sounds crazy when they say they will downgrade US debt if we don't avoid going over the fiscal cliff. Any compromise will decrease US debt less than no deal.
    Sep 15 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: Reluctantly Long The Market [View article]
    I don't follow. How is inflation a tax increase? If the value of your dollars went down, you're paying taxes with cheaper dollars. Sorry that you think inflation is the end of the world. I just disagree.

    If you feel that way because your income is fixed, you might consider purchasing an inflation-adjusted annuity.
    Sep 13 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Into Hedge Fund ETFs? [View article]
    The plus side of WDTI is that it has a negative correlation with the stock market. The bad side of WDTI is that it has a negative expected return. Just a matter of time until this offering is pulled.
    Sep 12 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare Now For The Looming Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Politicians lie. Quelle surprise! Can we just pretend it's January 2013 and talk about investments?
    Sep 7 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Set Long Positions Now Ahead Of ECB And FOMC Actions [View article]
    I would be very cautious here. Draghi is sure to disappoint. All bond buys will be "sterilized." What that means is there will be NO stimulus, NO money printing. They will merely try to lower the rates on very short-term securities by selling longer term securities. That's pretty much a net zero for Spain & Italy.
    Sep 5 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
    Experts' stock direction predictions are correct about 50% of the time. We need to learn from that not to invest based on predictions.
    Aug 18 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Cheap, Fast Growing Energy Producer Worth Considering [View article]
    CRZO may turn out to be great, but you should really mention their extreme financial distress. They can't even pay their interest expense from operating income. Too risky for me.
    Aug 12 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
    I'm never comfortable with people arguing the market price should be something much different than it is. The current price is a good first order approximation of what the price should be. So many people have lost money shorting U.S. treasuries, thinking such vastly-inflated prices were unsustainable. It's been years, and prices just keep going up.

    On the other hand, I certainly understand that people want to stay out of the way of cataclysmic collapses when things are changing quickly. So if people want to devote a larger share of their portfolio to cash, fine. I think it's a mistake to ignore equities altogether. Keep in mind that all the people managing these companies and economies are working toward growth. Even if the EZ disintegrates into multiple currencies and emerging markets have lower than expected growth, there will still be many good companies growing earnings.
    Jul 26 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    You don't trust the U.S. GDP numbers but you trust China's GDP numbers? Lots of people have pointed out that things like the flat electricity consumption in China, which is hard to reconcile with their GDP claims.

    The U.S. is the strongest economy in the world right now (not that that may not change in the future).
    Jul 17 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    '12%-15% pretty much guaranteed with little risk.

    Stay in those investments forever!
    Jul 9 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Start Of The 2012 End Game Is Upon Us [View article]
    I like JK's economic analyses, although I don't read to his commentaries to the exclusion of others: however, if you want to coat-tail someone's trading, be sure he (or she) has a verifiable track record. I've never seen JK make any representation about his investing track record. Markets are driven by sentiment and sentiment is rising right now.
    Jul 4 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
91 Comments
71 Likes