and now you've all been woken up to the inherent dangers of seeking alpha. Uninformed and inexperienced investors posting garbage that even less informed investors actually listen to. Hopefully no one listened.
Why Coffee Holding Co. Is Better Buy Than Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
You don't know the JVA or GMCR model very well. 1. JVA only benefits from rising coffee prices if their CEO successfully profits from a long position in futures/options. 2. Their overall GM% is negatively impacted by higher coffee prices excluding any options impact. 3. JVA's branded business is hurt the most by rising coffee prices, as they source coffee at higher prices and are delayed before they can raise retail prices.
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another incremental negative: The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) announced today that it decreased the list price for the majority of its packaged coffee products sold in the United States , primarily consisting of items sold under the Folgers^® and Dunkin' Donuts^® (NASDAQ: DNKN) brand names. Prices decreased an average of six percent on impacted items in response to sustained declines in green coffee costs. Dunkin' Donuts^® brand is licensed to The J. M. Smucker Company for packaged coffee products sold in retail channels such as grocery stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, dollar stores, and drug stores. This press release does not pertain to Dunkin' Donuts^® coffee or other products for sale in Dunkin' Donuts^® restaurants
Farmer Brothers: A Very Strong Brew [View article]
it's barely trading. And there are tons of shares to short on the institutional side. There's a chance the stock holds up for a short period, but i think we've seen the top and i expect the stock to decline over time back to around $10. They will only produce around $7m of FCF for the year [$12m ex-options] and the stock's EV is around $287m. A whoping 3% FCF yield. Goodnight.
Farmer Brothers: A Very Strong Brew [View article]
I think you're crazy to buy on weakness. Save your money. Core EPS power is a fraction of what the sellside is/was projecting. My concern isn't the balance sheet (which isn't improving), it's the GM%. Coffee prices are now bottoming and lower cost coffee is flowing through their income statement and they still can't turn a profit. Their model has serious issues which need to be fixed and that will take a lot of time. I was much more optimistic about their recovery story, but now have serious doubts. I'll be shorting shares tomorrow if you want to buy them.
Farmer Brothers: A Very Strong Brew [View article]
Gross margins were down sequentially with much lower coffee prices = not good. They will lose money for the year and likely next year. At $14, it's way overvalued.
Farmer Brothers: A Very Strong Brew [View article]
Mark - you are Incorrect on many fronts. The gross margin is key for FARM and the expansion has stopped Ben with lower coffee prices. This is a very bad sign. Also, national accounts is nothing new to them. It's just not an effective model to drive EBITDA. Their debt went up in the qtr - they now have $10m of long term debt in addition to their short term debt. True free cash flow was negative for the quarter. If the GM% expansion story is over, then so is the FARM recovery story. A horrible quarter and if it doesn't sell off, I'll short as much stock as I can.
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Why Coffee Holding Co. Is Better Buy Than Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
1. JVA only benefits from rising coffee prices if their CEO successfully profits from a long position in futures/options.
2. Their overall GM% is negatively impacted by higher coffee prices excluding any options impact.
3. JVA's branded business is hurt the most by rising coffee prices, as they source coffee at higher prices and are delayed before they can raise retail prices.
Farmer Brothers: A Very Strong Brew [View article]
The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) announced today that it decreased the list price for the majority of its packaged coffee products sold in the United States , primarily consisting of items sold under the Folgers^® and Dunkin' Donuts^® (NASDAQ: DNKN) brand names. Prices decreased an average of six percent on impacted items in response to sustained declines in green coffee costs.
Dunkin' Donuts^® brand is licensed to The J. M. Smucker Company for packaged coffee products sold in retail channels such as grocery stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, dollar stores, and drug stores. This press release does not pertain to Dunkin' Donuts^® coffee or other products for sale in Dunkin' Donuts^® restaurants
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