Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
Bound to happen. Doves and hawks always have opposing viewpoints, so in the meantime, why not try fundamentals? When QE does taper, there is every reason to believe it will be gradual. Relax. ;)
After repeated references to megalomaniacs, it's still hard to argue with success. We're also watching the mythology of "too big to fail" repeated and repeated and... These are days of a trend toward Boards of Directors showing more muscle, and they aren't necessarily better equipped to run successful mega-corporations. It is hard to argue with success. If Jamie Dimon does in fact move on, most JPM investors will be moving on, too, while the new powers are tested, devaluing the stock significantly. You think Ford doesn't shudder to think of Mulally's retirement? as usual, jmho.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index:-15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
Believe the numbers which never, well, rarely ... lie.
Most troubling for refiners amid a two-day rout: Crack spreads have tumbled recently, with gasoline at a premium of $29.81/bbl to WTI today; it was $33 a week ago. As Bloomberg notes, the narrowing is due to a decline in gasoline prices, which hurts refiners: "People are factoring in some refineries coming back online, and we’ve yet to see any pick-up in demand,” one analyst says. [View news story]
The EPA is also trying to push thru regulations reducing sulpher content. (note: self-edited this comment many, many times. ;)
JPMorgan (JPM -1.8%) drags on the Dow (now down just 30 points) as the Feds are investigating whether the bank was more or less complicit with Bernie Madoff. Meanwhile, Madoff pens a letter from the clink saying banks he dealt with had to have known about his Ponzi scheme. The NYT adds it up and finds 8 federal agencies are investigating the Bank of Dimon. [View news story]
Well, let's see. The Bernie Madoff (still in jail, isn't he?) is blaming JPM, saying "they had to have known". What is that worth? And the NYT reports (no surprises there) that "8 federal agencies are investigating..." blah-blah-blah. What year was that, anyway?
Federal prosecutors are reportedly investigating whether JPMorgan (JPM) breached the law by not fully alerting authorities about suspicions related to Bernard Madoff. The probe adds to several others JPMorgan is facing, with eight federal agencies investigating the company. In April, the FBI and other authorities are due to interview executives, including CEO Jamie Dimon, about whether JPMorgan misled investors and regulators over the London Whaling loss. [View news story]
Ah, yes, hindsight continues as vitually flawless. The continuing hassle of JPM looking ever more like payback to the outspoken Jaimie Dimon, and the quest for political headlines and/or financial settlements, the newest form of taxation.
More on Cyprus: EU finance ministers approve deal. Bloomberg says deposits above €100K at Bank of Cyprus could incur losses up to 40% while deposits above the €100K threshold at Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki) may be wiped out entirely. Deal may not need to be approved by the Cypriot parliament. [View news story]
"This is a nuclear war on savings and wealth," writes Jefferies' David Zervos of the Cyprus bailout. "This is a policy move you expect from a dictatorial regime ... not in an EU member state. If the EU governments can clandestinely expropriate 7-10% of their (citizens' savings) after the close of business on Friday night, what else are they capable of doing ... Why keep your money at a Spanish or Italian bank when you can jump to Germany or France ... Why even keep money in the EU banking system at all." [View news story]
Diversify. Spread the wealth around. Maybe send some to the Caymans? ;)
"This is a nuclear war on savings and wealth," writes Jefferies' David Zervos of the Cyprus bailout. "This is a policy move you expect from a dictatorial regime ... not in an EU member state. If the EU governments can clandestinely expropriate 7-10% of their (citizens' savings) after the close of business on Friday night, what else are they capable of doing ... Why keep your money at a Spanish or Italian bank when you can jump to Germany or France ... Why even keep money in the EU banking system at all." [View news story]
Why not? Collateral damage, and a loss of whatever confidence might be retained in the international monetary system.
Why are consumers buying cars at a solid pace if they aren't shopping in a lively manner at Wal-Mart and Target? Despite warnings up and down the retail sector, the National Automobile Dealers Association is sticking by its prediction for 15.4M vehicles sold this year while today's reports on Feb. sales (GM, Ford, Chrysler, Volkswagen) don't look half-bad in the face of higher payroll taxes and the looming sequester. Analysts think fresh products and a need to replace the older gas-guzzling fleet of cars in the country are behind the sector strength. [View news story]
Also, cash-for-clunkers program time lapse adding to turnover rate. Time for some new wheels. Factor in depreciation for businesses, too. Plus, some would rather put $$ into a new car/truck than face repairs.
How much debt can the U.S. handle? A new paper quantifies an 80% public debt to GDP ratio - where the U.S. is right now - as the point at which a nation reaches a potential tipping point; once a nation has debt above that level, it becomes vulnerable to the kind of self-reinforcing vicious cycles that have crippled others. Two responses from Fed officials see the analysis as simplistic and eurocentric. [View news story]
Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
Agree. DOJ Holder and State AGs basically chasing headlines and settlement, and the majority of the media will gallop alongside. Following ratings agencies in Market purchases is voluntary. Should be treated as heads-up and beginning point for an investor's own research. But...the old saying is "follow da money" and the attorneys will definitey come out winners. Govt found another well.
A Lance Armstrong confession to Oprah Winfrey on her show covering his long record of systematically doping could create collateral damage for Nike (NKE +0.6%) with a flurry of lawsuits likely to crop up. The company, which sponsored the cyclist for years, is already tangentially involved with a deposition on record in which it's alleged a $500K payment from the company to an Union Cycliste International official was for a coverup [View news story]
Poor Nike. Problems with Tiger, now Armstrong. But. Nike just signed McElroy on a $200Million sponsorship deal. Better luck, Nike.
Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
Jamie Dimon is threatening to leave JPMorgan (JPM) if stripped of the Chairman role, sources say. [View news story]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
Most troubling for refiners amid a two-day rout: Crack spreads have tumbled recently, with gasoline at a premium of $29.81/bbl to WTI today; it was $33 a week ago. As Bloomberg notes, the narrowing is due to a decline in gasoline prices, which hurts refiners: "People are factoring in some refineries coming back online, and we’ve yet to see any pick-up in demand,” one analyst says. [View news story]
Mar. ISM Manufacturing Index: 51.3 vs. 54.0 consensus and 54.2 prior. [View news story]
JPMorgan (JPM -1.8%) drags on the Dow (now down just 30 points) as the Feds are investigating whether the bank was more or less complicit with Bernie Madoff. Meanwhile, Madoff pens a letter from the clink saying banks he dealt with had to have known about his Ponzi scheme. The NYT adds it up and finds 8 federal agencies are investigating the Bank of Dimon. [View news story]
Federal prosecutors are reportedly investigating whether JPMorgan (JPM) breached the law by not fully alerting authorities about suspicions related to Bernard Madoff. The probe adds to several others JPMorgan is facing, with eight federal agencies investigating the company. In April, the FBI and other authorities are due to interview executives, including CEO Jamie Dimon, about whether JPMorgan misled investors and regulators over the London Whaling loss. [View news story]
More on Cyprus: EU finance ministers approve deal. Bloomberg says deposits above €100K at Bank of Cyprus could incur losses up to 40% while deposits above the €100K threshold at Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki) may be wiped out entirely. Deal may not need to be approved by the Cypriot parliament.
[View news story]
"This is a nuclear war on savings and wealth," writes Jefferies' David Zervos of the Cyprus bailout. "This is a policy move you expect from a dictatorial regime ... not in an EU member state. If the EU governments can clandestinely expropriate 7-10% of their (citizens' savings) after the close of business on Friday night, what else are they capable of doing ... Why keep your money at a Spanish or Italian bank when you can jump to Germany or France ... Why even keep money in the EU banking system at all." [View news story]
"This is a nuclear war on savings and wealth," writes Jefferies' David Zervos of the Cyprus bailout. "This is a policy move you expect from a dictatorial regime ... not in an EU member state. If the EU governments can clandestinely expropriate 7-10% of their (citizens' savings) after the close of business on Friday night, what else are they capable of doing ... Why keep your money at a Spanish or Italian bank when you can jump to Germany or France ... Why even keep money in the EU banking system at all." [View news story]
Why are consumers buying cars at a solid pace if they aren't shopping in a lively manner at Wal-Mart and Target? Despite warnings up and down the retail sector, the National Automobile Dealers Association is sticking by its prediction for 15.4M vehicles sold this year while today's reports on Feb. sales (GM, Ford, Chrysler, Volkswagen) don't look half-bad in the face of higher payroll taxes and the looming sequester. Analysts think fresh products and a need to replace the older gas-guzzling fleet of cars in the country are behind the sector strength. [View news story]
How much debt can the U.S. handle? A new paper quantifies an 80% public debt to GDP ratio - where the U.S. is right now - as the point at which a nation reaches a potential tipping point; once a nation has debt above that level, it becomes vulnerable to the kind of self-reinforcing vicious cycles that have crippled others. Two responses from Fed officials see the analysis as simplistic and eurocentric. [View news story]
Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
Attorney General Holder puts a $5B-plus target on how much S&P (MHP -6.5%) defrauded investors through faulty ratings on MBS, and says the DOJ is going after all of it. "S&P misled investors ... causing them to lose billions of dollars." S&P alone? (earlier: Even $3B seems far too high) [View news story]
A Lance Armstrong confession to Oprah Winfrey on her show covering his long record of systematically doping could create collateral damage for Nike (NKE +0.6%) with a flurry of lawsuits likely to crop up. The company, which sponsored the cyclist for years, is already tangentially involved with a deposition on record in which it's alleged a $500K payment from the company to an Union Cycliste International official was for a coverup [View news story]