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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Why Salesforce.com Is Only Worth About $40 Billion To Bidders [View article]
    ...would displace HP's purchase of Autonomy and Time Warner's purchase of AOL as the all time worst acquisition in history.

    would you pay $60b for a company that produces $0.01 per share per quarter of GAAP profit if it was your money?
    May 21, 2015. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Merck And Achillion/J&J Square Off In An HCV 'Nuc'lear Showdown [View article]
    wow you know your stuff with these molecules

    I hold a lot of GILD because I believe they will continually hold both the present best solution and will win the race to the next iteration i.e. 8 weeks, 6 weeks, 4 weeks, etc..

    At the same time, they put their cash to use very well with acquisitions accretive to bottom line, dividends and buybacks.

    So even when they get to the final holy grail (Hep C basically being treated immediately and inexpensively), GILD will have optimized that business opportunity. (and cured a ton of folks, which is really fantastic!)

    Long ACHN and really really long GILD. Thanks for great article!
    May 21, 2015. 01:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman updates list of hedge funds most-shorted stocks [View news story]
    nope they have to pay the dividend if they are short the stock. they are betting that the stock price will drop further than the dividend payout.
    May 21, 2015. 10:00 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Salesforce.com Is Only Worth About $40 Billion To Bidders [View article]
    Fantastic article. I don't think MSFT will buy CRM for all the reasons you've stated. I don't think their board would let them. They all know that the cultures would clash horribly.

    I do however think CRM will continue to grow top line with amazingly consistent 'beats and raises' every quarter (how do they do that I wonder?) and the stock will keep afloat until interest rates start to rise and the next bear market starts. Could be a few more years which will preclude a buyout and ultimately lead to an implosion of the stock price.

    They took a real risk announcing a GAAP earning. Now their real P/E and PEG will be documented on all the tickers/websites. And retail investors will say "whoa - that's their P/E? I'm not touching that"
    May 21, 2015. 09:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAP CEO: Unlikely Salesforce will be sold [View news story]
    a $38 can of Coke isn't a good deal regardless of one's ability to buy it
    May 20, 2015. 09:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce slumps as dealReporter states M&A talks are slow [View news story]
    Still amazes me that the 6% hasn't erased. From everything that I've read and believed, there was no way that anyone was going to make such a bad investment at this valuation. I think in a few years any of the Big Four players could pick up CRM for less than 1/2 of its current valuation.

    Bloomberg, I believe, ran with a story from a CRM employee and did not validate the story with the potential buyer, mostly because there wasn't one.
    May 19, 2015. 01:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Man's Self-Deceit Is Another Man's Rationalization [View article]
    George,
    I too was disappointed to see the petty options premiums for HPQ having had 400 shares assigned after the last earnings report. This is going to take a long time to get back to even since they were assigned at $37! I know it's not a total DOH trade but never expected such miniscule volatility; especially given the imminent break-up.

    Also, if you've ever been in a corporate environment, the ability to rationalize bad news and even blatant strategic and tactical mistakes to upper management is a skill that can keep completely inept managers in their roles for years.

    As a doctor you probably never had to suffer through that. And you should feel blessed.

    I'm thinking CRM is down to pre-rumor levels by Friday.
    May 18, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator wants Veterans Administration to use wartime provision to knock down price of Sovaldi [View news story]
    PREACH NJBioNerd! Ridiculous what we focus on.

    Our inner-city public schools are a disgrace, we let dying people stay alive way longer than we should on Medicare's dime, we buy jets we don't need, but he's going to invoke war-time measures for an already heavily-discounted CURE to Hepatitis C.
    May 13, 2015. 02:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Salesforce: A Potential Marriage Made In Heaven [View article]
    that's actually funny ddn123
    May 13, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Strong Growth, Poor Stock Performance [View article]
    Their lot in life is a total conflict of interest by nature. If their margins can be higher by offering a less effective, but not illegal solution, that's where their bias will be. They proved that with the V-Pak exclusivity deal.

    On top of this, their service is sub-standard. For example, if you are mandated to use them (like me) and a script runs out, you own the whole process and can't assume Express Scripts gives a crap. I've had more than one occasion where my meds didn't arrive and when I followed up with them they said "Oh your script renewals ended" or "we faxed a request to your doctor two weeks ago and he never responded". These are the things you hear when you have 3 pills left. So you have to go to your doctor to get some samples to hold you over and remind them to fax back the renewal authorization.

    It's a dumpster fire
    May 13, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Strong Growth, Poor Stock Performance [View article]
    should've clarified that better - I meant specifically the biotech ETFs. it helped GILD in 2014 but now the stock price doesn't keep pace with the EFTs. GILD should be buying hand over fist after that reaction to their quarter.
    May 12, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Strong Growth, Poor Stock Performance [View article]
    But we'll put someone on a cholesterol drug for 40 years. This is a cure.

    Our Medicare and Medicaid solvency depends on reimbursing for HEALTH, not for services, treatment, tests, etc.. When that branch of government, which is the largest spend of US tax dollars, starts realizing that health is the desired outcome, they'll change their opinion about cures.

    Not saying $1000 a pill is the answer, but a cure should carry a huge premium.
    May 12, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissociative Identity Disorder Is For Markets Too [View article]
    Thanks for giving props to Eddie and Arsenio in Coming to America. That is one of the most under-rated and under-appreciated comedies of my generation.

    Ordinarily I'd say the Zillow trade is safe but after watching LNKD, SNDK etc.. drop by so much so quickly, I'd say Zillow will most likely surprise again as if no one ever heard the CEO's quote. I wouldn't be shocked to see another 25% drop.

    I think I'm going to play the TEVA and DD trades

    Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful moms out there; and even to the passive aggressive ones who drive us nuts. We still love you.
    May 10, 2015. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: The Perspective Of A Non-Biotech Investor [View article]
    if the market was ever completely right none of us would ever make money. the fact that it can and is wrong a lot in the short term is how we all make money theoretically.

    AAPL had authors banging the table to buy buy buy all through the decent and yet it still went down to an unbelievable $385 per share. Now it is double that and absolutely nothing changed at the company. The stock market just had it DEAD WRONG.
    May 9, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Strong Growth, Poor Stock Performance [View article]
    The January 2017 $100 calls are selling for about $18.00. If you are sick and tired of waiting for a breakout, just start accumulating these. I think it's safe to say that after six more strong quarters, a probable dividend increase, a potential additional merger, and a correction with flight to safety, that GILD will be over $125.00. And it may be $160.00

    I think unfortunately GILD is a slave to the ETF's. It's like GILD is Frank Sinatra but it gets bunched in with every singer in the business. I think it would do better if it somehow forbid ETFs from owning shares (not possible I know but it would allow it to stand out)
    May 9, 2015. 04:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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