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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Salesforce spending $690M on HQ, gets naming rights thrown in [View news story]
    Pride comes before the fall. the entire SF newspaper is dedicated to this. No one ever even slightly hints at the fact that the company doesn't make any money. It's all about how awesome SFDC is and how many employees they have in the city. Very dangerous.

    And I love the Bloomberg observation too. How fitting.

    If I had to guess, I would say that by the end of the 15 year lease, it will be renamed the Oracle or SAP Tower because at some point in the next 15 years the world will realize that CRM can never grow into their valuation and the stock will correct down to its appropriate price (say $20) and a giant player who actually makes real GAAP profits will buy them out.

    You heard it here first
    Apr 11 01:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Announces Dividend Components [View article]
    Corn stove -
    No one knows these things until they are announced
    Apr 6 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce creates new unit, will offer industry-specific products [View news story]
    Thanks for saying "heavy on buzzwords and light on details" as that is their m.o. on earnings calls as well.

    Not that I know of any fraud going on, but if there's ever a company that is acting like Enron it is this company and this CEO. The similarities are striking.
    Apr 2 06:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Analyst Says Little Downside For Apple [View article]
    When the Fed ceases purchases and the bull tires after many many years of running, we will see GAAP earnings *not fairy tale earnings* matter again and that will be most kind to AAPL longs. Hang in there everyone - there is 20%+ easily to be had over the next 2 years (dividends included)
    Apr 2 02:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust Now Worth Less Than $2.15, Will Fall To $0 In 12 Months [View article]
    I've been astounded by this stock for years. We ALL knew it was trading at 2x its intrinsic value but no one could make any money off of that information because it was so expensive to short shares and the PUT premiums were ridiculous.

    Lesson learned. I'll never try to trade one of these again. Game is rigged here.
    Mar 31 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Give Up On Momentum [View article]
    George when you say rollover do you mean buy back the PUTS at a loss to avoid having the stock put on you and then trying your luck again at a lower price? If this is the case, do you strive to wipe out your locked in loss with the premium of the new PUT? I had GILD put on me at $80 and didn't feel that I had many options sinc it would've cost a ton of money to buy back that put. Really bad timing for me but I'm happy to be underwater on a stock that I like long term.
    Mar 31 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Give Up On Momentum [View article]
    DeepH20 -- I'm on the same page. But my GILD put was put on my akin to catching the knife so now I have another lower strike GILD put out there. I've been wanting to own GILD and CELG for months and now finally can jump in. I think they have some more room to go down but the next upswing will be kind to them as unlike cloud stocks they make GAAP profits.
    Mar 29 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Tanked Post Earnings: Now What? [View article]
    It acts like a ponzi but with no mal-intent. everything they are doing is legal, it's just that they have to either stop spending so much (ha!) or if (when) the growth slows they'll really be in trouble because the interest rates will be slowly climbing the whole time they are enjoying the growth ride.
    Mar 28 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First The 3-D Space, Next The Fuel Cell Space, Now The SaaS Space [View article]
    so your chart is predicting CSOD to hit $45? that's not a bad play to sell a $44 put if that's the case.

    even post-correction, these SaaS companies are ridiculously over-valued. I think they have another leg up before the true correction down to normal P/E's

    as one pundit on CNBC said recently "these companies better not ever show a profit or they'll be exposed"
    Mar 27 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Compelling Valuation Is Too Good To Ignore [View article]
    they've had a compelling valuation since 2010. this is dead money investing in this company.
    Mar 27 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Tanked Post Earnings: Now What? [View article]
    Very balanced and informative, thanks.

    I think we are near the bottom of the short term correction and it'll keep rising up into the 70's over the next year or two.

    The major correction down to 'intrinsic value' of $28.46 will happen when the market starts to realize that CRM's growth is slowing and/or the market realizes that the word 'cloud' means 'internet' and there's not really a new model that's going to create all of these new profit streams. As a matter of fact, CRM is proving that it's increasingly more expensive to grow and even with consistent, significant top-line growth, they still will be hard-pressed to make GAAP profits in this model unless they halt all stock-based compensation, which they won't.

    Prediction - CRM trades below $30 but not for at least 8 more quarters. I keep happily adding to my short and selling OTM puts to fund it, knowing full well how this movie is going to end.
    Mar 26 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Accounts For The Conservative Investor [View article]
    George,
    to be perfectly clear, if my brokerage says I have $8000 in buying power via my margin account, and I buy 100 shares of GILD for $7200, I'll immediately be charged a hefty interest rate on that $7200.

    BUT

    if I sell a $70 PUT on GILD which lowers my buying power by $7000, I can collect the premium and NOT be charged any interest unless the stock is actually put on me?

    I wish I had an emoticon showing my mind being blown. Thank you so much for that Yoda-like insight.

    I believe your company should rename itself from Option2Profit to OptionsJediMaster
    Mar 25 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Significant Downside Risk Remains [View article]
    Thanks for the cold water in the face with these Royalty Trusts. I can't see how these don't end up in lawsuits with so many retirees and other income investors getting absolutely no value for their hard-earned money.

    I assume all shares that we retail buyers own are the common shares and therefore have some safety net. Who is buying the subordinated shares and why would they?
    Mar 19 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I - PV-10 Update Reveals 'Pig In A Poke' [View article]
    DEJ - could you forward your SDR report? I'm long SDR thinking all the bad news is baked in and it just keeps dropping. I'm wondering if it's guilt by association to SDT or if it is just as lousy of an investment. thx
    Mar 18 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Weight Of The World Is A Big Burden [View article]
    Very funny line about Sheldon surviving any nuclear holocaust; but sadly I believe Mr. Adelson died a few years ago. Still trying to figure out how they do those CNBC interviews but my theory is that it's next generation animation hydraulics.

    FCX and CLF have been very fun to trade. I just had some $19 CLF put on me today but will sell the $18 calls Monday and probably will earn 2% in < 1 month. And if it drops to $17 I'll double down. Although copper miners are all way down from their lofty heights of 2012, they aren't going to go bankrupt. And China is still actually growing 3x the rate of the US.
    Mar 15 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,145 Comments
1,985 Likes