Seeking Alpha

Doyle3000

Doyle3000
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Doyle3000's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The 401K Scam [View article]
    Hate to agree here but our nature has proven to be Buy High, Sell Low.

    I personally witnessed some otherwise intelligent people sell all of their 401K holdings in 2008 as they could no longer watch the number drop. Then they waited for 3 years to finally feel better about the market. They missed the bottom and they certainly missed out on a huge run from when they sold to when they jumped back in.

    There needs to be better education about it that's for sure. You shouldn't be able to panic sell your entire portfolio when you are in your 30's. It's just a horrible waste of money.
    Sep 17 09:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120 [View article]
    Bret - good stuff. I trimmed 15% of my shares at $101 Friday (had them called) but am still feeling confident with AAPL as my largest holding.

    Seriously, what was so bad about the Galaxy 4? My daughter has one and loves it. I was jealous of the screen to be honest. I've had the 4S and now own the 5S and think it's great but am curious on your objective Galaxy feedback.
    Sep 16 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Salesforce.com A Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    you should get some trademark protection on that title. it would be catchy and in a few years when Benioff is put in the same bucket as Lay, Skilling, Ebbers, Kozlowski, etc.. there will be books about it.

    II you have enough good info here from your stuff, Sullivan, Schembs, to put a book together. We just need to wait for your last few chapters. I'll give you the first few lines of the penultimate chapter: "And the more things change, the more things stay the same. Larry Ellison walks into the hotel suite with his parade of sycophants and sits down to purchase the shares of the once mighty CRM. For $17 per share. A full 88% below it's market cap of only a few years ago. There's a reason Larry is the richest man in California...."
    Sep 16 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Residential REIT's Staggering Yield May Be A Risk Worth Taking [View article]
    the author said it's not about analyzing previous purchases, he's saying "is it a good buy here?" and I think the answer is yes for income seekers, knowing that loss of share price could happen (but the entire market is due for a correction so it's probably the same risk)
    Sep 15 08:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene Looks Unstoppable [View article]
    Good article - you nailed it on the head that this is an investment and not a trade. If you don't need your money for several years, you would do very well to go long on CELG.

    Long GILD, CELG, AAPL. Sleep very well at night.
    Sep 15 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Salesforce.com A Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    Oh how I giggle; let me count the ways:

    1) You neglected to mention that the forward P/E of 86x was fairy tale earnings. Real and recurring expenses are continually removed from this 'earnings' number they speak of. They are not real earnings.

    2) "Large spending on acquisitions has restricted profits since 2011" Really? That's the reason? It's not that they have to spend $110 for every $100 of revenue they bring in to cover SG & A, R & D and stock compensation? And are you quite sure it's not because the model actually doesn't work profitably?

    3) "For instance, the sales of ExactTarget's products have grown by 10% to $122 million over the previous year." You know they paid over $2 BILLION+ CASH for that 10% growth on the puny $110mm business, right? So $2 BILLION+ got them $1mm of revenue growth per month in the first year. Awesome ROI. Awesome.

    I'm saving all of these bullish CRM articles and will publish a Tolstoy-esque article once this craters. Thanks for the addition.
    Sep 12 04:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Until We Start Seeing Salesforce.com Profits? [View article]
    I find it amazing how much everyone forgot about how these types of stocks rode like gazelles all through the late 90s and then collectively collapsed to near-worthlessness. It was only 24 years ago but no one seems to remember. Maybe these writers were too young to know that it really happened. They are even called a dot-com company!

    CRM will trade at $17 per share in the next few years. They may even have to file Chapter 11. It is a certainty that the price will crater. It's just a matter of when.
    Sep 12 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Eyes Overseas Expansion [View article]
    They'll enjoy a nice ride while interest rates remain low. They have maybe 4 more quarters to brag about their cash flow situation. There are some big bills due that they don't have the actual cash to cover.

    Apparently their credit facility won't take "accounting cash flow" from depreciation and stock options for payment, they actually demand cash.

    I still give this a 10% chance of going into Chapter 11 if the interest rates rise quickly and one of their major mutual funds sells, cratering the stock price.
    Sep 12 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Nothing Can Stop A Runaway Train [View article]
    Great article as usual but read it Tuesday instead of my usual Sunday read with Billie Holliday on in the background.

    So are we ready to sell puts on CLF yet? I think I am.
    Sep 9 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Where Did The Investors Go? (9/8/14) [View article]
    OK let's give Jim some credit. He is finally saying that Amazon should be sold after next rally. I had been thinking that between AMZN, CMG and CRM he was in danger of losing his job if they all tanked.

    Now he touts one money maker CMG, and could weather the storm when CRM tanks.

    And he nailed Hertz. Nailed it. Good week for Cramer so far.
    Sep 9 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Has High Growth Potential: Initiating A $58 Price Target [View article]
    FB and TWTR are very good examples but both stocks cratered first before the smart longs jumped in. CRM hasn't really had their reality check yet but it's coming. I hate for anyone to buy at $58, especially if this is your price target. Thanks for all of your comments Alex. I love your stuff on AAPL too.
    Sep 6 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Has High Growth Potential: Initiating A $58 Price Target [View article]
    OK so if they need all this SG&A to grow at a 30% clip, if they cut the spending you agree the growth would probably slow accordingly. You'd still have the same gap correct?

    So is your argument that they choose to spend higher to have a higher growth rate to build their business to a certain size, (Benioff cites $10b often) then they wouldn't need the 30% growth rate and could start working on the profitability line and only grow say 15% a year?

    I mean that makes sense if you assume they can make decent money in this model. And that people don't leave in droves the minute the top line slows and the stock craters. Or that once the mutual funds who own CRM see that their true GAAP profits will never justify todays price. Lots of very risky assumptions in this. Long term, it's a horrible investment. Maybe after it craters like FB and TWTR did it'll be a good buy. Heck I'd go long if I felt it was over-sold. Say at $19.
    Sep 6 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Has High Growth Potential: Initiating A $58 Price Target [View article]
    Indeed Alex - how can Facebook become profitable so quickly after adjusting their operations for growth and profitability? CRM is by my count almost 10 years older than Facebook and they aren't even close to adjusting their operations.

    Do you really in your heart believe they can drastically adjust all of their Sales, Marketing and R&D and not have the stock absolutely crater when people realize what they are capable of making in GAAP profits? I don't see how you can mention Facebook and not see the total contrast to the CRM business model.
    Sep 5 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Has High Growth Potential: Initiating A $58 Price Target [View article]
    until interest rates start to rise and the market starts it's next cycle. then it will be one of the worst performing stocks out there. you have to make money at the end of the day. and they just don't.
    Sep 4 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Why The Shorts Will Continue Retreating [View article]
    When a few very smart people figured out that the bonds backing the bad mortgages (pre-crash) were not only over-valued, they were worthless; they all knew it was going to take a long time for the market to realize it, and they all knew that it was going to be a huge collapse.

    Unlike those bonds that went from $1.00 down to $0.00 at the crash, this stock still does have some value. So I predict it'll adjust from $1.00 down to about $0.50 on the dollar. About $29.00.

    It's not "if" it's going to happen, it's "when" it's going to happen. The high-flyers who make no real GAAP profits will fall first and fall furthest during the next down cycle. And this cycle is inevitable.
    Sep 4 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,287 Comments
2,300 Likes