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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    "Profit is irrelevant, you have to understand the business"

    this sums up why we just won't agree here. continued good luck.
    Dec 20 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    agree to disagree here. I think CRM can go to $3 or lower due to incredibly shady accounting and growing exposure to people like Jim Chanos who point out how much of their assets are goodwill.

    with VEEV actually making a profit, I think it has less downside.I'd guess 90%+ downside for CRM vs. $50% downside for VEEV.

    good luck with your trades. we shall see how things play out
    Dec 20 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG's Turnaround Story Not Likely To End Soon [View article]
    Does anyone know their current book value? Would've been a strong point for the author to make vs. today's current price!
    Dec 20 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    same happened to me, I had purchased the $5 Dec Puts about 6 months ago and am astonished that they are going to expire near worthless. You've think you've seen everything.....
    Dec 19 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders, Outsiders Option Exercises Critical For Salesforce Cash Flow [View article]
    RW, you're trying to talk a priest into the rights of women to choose to get an abortion. It's not going to sink in.
    Dec 19 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    do you really think CRM has earning power? serious question

    If they slow the Sales and Marketing and R&D spending, I truly believe the growth will slow precipitously, sending the stock down to levels that would halt the stock option transactions. This in turn would halt their cash flow and it would cycle down continuously. They do not make earnings now with a rock steady top line growth rate. (which I feel is fudged with S&M accounting tricks anyway)

    but you're right, not a good comparison because VEEV actually makes a GAAP profit.
    Dec 19 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    Of note, one of the cloud plays that uses CRM's 'force' platform is called VEEV and they are already profitable, which I think could unobscure just how profitable these cloud plays can be. And the answer is 'not wildly'. Don't know if it's coincidence or a big seller but VEEV's share price has been tanking.

    So it benefits CRM to continually have the promise of future earnings, because, like VEEV, if they actually show the profit they can make, everyone will see that the Wizard of Oz was the tiny man behind the curtain.
    Dec 18 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Google, Inc. [View article]
    I think GOOG is experiencing the phenomena that AAPL underwent over the last several years as the Wall Street Growth Stock Darling. It was incredible to watch all the big money pull out of AAPL when the growth slowed and pile into GOOG.

    I believe that these stocks have their own universe that they play in and that no Graham evaluation matters. If GOOG shows signs of slowing growth, the mutual funds will exit quickly and the stock will plummet. I would not be long GOOG right now as they seem priced to perfection.
    Dec 17 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders, Outsiders Option Exercises Critical For Salesforce Cash Flow [View article]
    It's dilution but it's also a solid fact that if you are own CRM stock, you are not investing in a portion of the profits of the company, you are enriching the management team. And if your position doesn't net you a paper gain every single year you are losing.

    For example in 2013 you took a huge risk for a return below the SPY ETF.

    And this is BEFORE the inevitable crash!
    Dec 17 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hedge Funds Are Buying Twitter Right Now [View article]
    having followed other ridiculously valued stocks, some for many many years, I can tell you that TWTR will go way way way higher before it collapses. big money in 'growth stocks' will stay in love with their revenue growth for YEARS. do not short this stock. do not buy puts on this stock.

    for a history lesson, see CRM
    Dec 15 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hedge Funds Are Buying Twitter Right Now [View article]
    Be very careful with PUTS on high-flying growth stocks, I saw a yacht named "I SOLD puts to people thinking a stock's collapse was imminent because the valuation was ridiculous". It took up the entire back of the boat but you get my drift.
    Dec 15 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good News Goes Good [View article]
    George - did your JCP get called? I thought I was a genius selling the $9's and find myself very long on a company that many people hate as a stock.
    Dec 8 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C.Penney: A Better Risk Reward At $8 Than $6 [View article]
    The question is 'do you think this thing is going bankrupt soon or not?" and I just don't see it. I agree with Dante' - the downside here is maybe 10%-15% but upside is pretty nice.

    To offset paper losses at this point, sell $7 PUTS and sell $10 calls. And have an exit plan is the bears are dead right!
    Dec 7 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Kyle Bass Sell J.C. Penney Prematurely? [View article]
    If you are thinking about getting in, sell some $7 puts. you'll win either way once they expire. I'm long 1000 shares around $9 so that's what I'm doing. Also rolling the $10 calls that expired today. This is either a trader's stock (what I'm doing) or a deep value long term patient play. I think the SEC will be an inquiry and maybe a wrist slap, I don't think it's relevant to the solvency question of the company that is keeping the price down.
    Dec 7 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark Offers Decent Upside Potential [View article]
    Agree with CCM - it's over-bought at these prices. Keep in mind the company is not growing and they are spinning off $1.7B of revenue. And the reason they are spinning it off is that they couldn't bring themselves to fire the President of that sector who was a woman but she was COMPLETELY inept. They spun it off because they couldn't manage it.

    Now if it dips down to $92 it's a bargain. I bought puts at $109 and have made nice money.
    Dec 6 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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