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Doyle3000

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  • Salesforce.com Moving Out Of The Clouds [View article]
    How exactly are they moving out of the clouds?

    I'd argue that their modus operandi is to remain IN the clouds because a) it's the hot buzz word for high-flying new tech stocks and b) clouds can obscure true financial situations like the fact that most of their cash flow is generated from exercising myriad stock options. And that a lot of their growth is derived from over-paying for bolt-on acquisitions. Or their % of assets listed under Goodwill.

    Everything they do is IN the clouds for a reason.
    Sep 2 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SaaS Valuation: What Is The Bessemer Venture Partners Index Telling Us To Short? [View article]
    Any idea why the 2 extremes that you mentioned are where they are? The bottom 5 appear intriguing if they are growing well revenue-wise.

    I also must state that the largest of the bunch (CRM) will eventually fall the hardest and get the most press when it breaks. It'll be the end of the cloud bubble when it does collapse. And will bring this entire list down. I predict this to happen about the same time as the Fed begins raising rates.

    The model doesn't appear to be able to turn revenue growth into GAAP profit. It is very different from MSFT, ORCL & SAP. They may have priced it too low to start and there aren't any moats built so it's commoditizing very quickly.
    Sep 2 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Is Not Done Running [View article]
    Call options seem to be very inexpensive as the market continues to fear government pricing intervention. Or in this case maybe Mr. Market is ignorant of the profit train that GILD is?

    Regardless, I'm buying Jan 2015 $110 calls at only $800 per contract. Seems so low to me.
    Sep 2 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Security At 70: Always A Bad Idea [View article]
    It's my understanding via financial articles and financial talk shows that indeed one can stop working at 62 and live off investments for 8 years and then when SS kicks in at 70 the IRR would calculate to about 8% annually.

    Now I'm going to do the math myself. Of course there's no free lunch in this world, the government keeps my money for another 8 years to waste on god knows what, but I'll make that deal any day, even if it calculates to 5% when i do the math.

    Do you have math showing that you're correct? I'm all ears
    Sep 1 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday - The Absolute Definition Of A Bubble [View article]
    Wim - welcome back!! Where have you been? We've missed your logic on these cloud stocks!
    Aug 30 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Security At 70: Always A Bad Idea [View article]
    It's easy to say you could make more money that 8% per year each year from 62 to 70 but it is MUCH more difficult to do it. What if you had retired in Sept 1987 and the market lost 25% in October? Or if you'd have emptied your 401K into a self-directed IRA on September 10th, 2001? Or done the same when Lehman Bros went bankrupt?

    8% guaranteed risk-adjusted ROI is nothing to sneer at. I bet <5% of investors at age 62 could beat it. And I bet 95% would do worse. That is not good for the economy.

    Don't fly too close to the sun Icarus
    Aug 29 03:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Set For Strong Sales Of iPhone 6 In Just A Few Weeks - But Is It Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    Smartone7 - I was just going to type that exact reply. Glad I read yours first.

    Michael Blair I respect your writing and totally agree with you on CRM but you have passed the pathetic stage with this Moby Dick of yours (Apple). The stock has risen $350 per share since you first wrote "Call me Ishmael"

    Yes eventually after many years this stock may tank a bit but come on, could you have picked a worse stock to short? Are you going to short GILD and CELG next?

    Hope you don't mind the kidding. I am giggling as I type this. I read the title and know it's you immediately.
    Aug 28 03:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Has High Growth Potential: Initiating A $58 Price Target [View article]
    The SEC made Salesforce.com break out the businesses. They didn't want to do it and had avoided it for a while. It's going to expose their goodwill if any of these fail to perform.
    Aug 27 12:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: As An Investment, A Spent Force [View article]
    I do think Salesforce.com will be purchased but not until the stock comes down to fair to premium value; which according to the author's calculations is $15

    And to show good faith I'm sure Larry will offer $22 per share so that the board says ok.

    This collapse is inevitable. Why would anyone buy them at this price?
    Aug 25 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Profit Outlook Remains Cloudy [View article]
    I think Chanos is secretly short. He wouldn't name the cloud company but said on CNBC that it was "an accounting nightmare". Who does that sound like to you?
    Aug 25 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jackson Hole And Complacency [View article]
    Thanks for the GME winner last week. And my own CRM hit too which made me wish I'd used a strike a little closer to the IV window.

    Nevertheless now my worry is the market gods sensing my smugness from all these weekly victories. A D'OH trade is now inevitable.
    Aug 24 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Profit Outlook Remains Cloudy [View article]
    Excellent article. Simple and elegant. One thing I think all of us shorts need to keep in mind is that indeed this overly-elevated valuation could remain for a few more years.

    Another less likely scenario (but still possible) is Chapter 11. As their low interest debt accumulates, interest rates could start rising quickly if the Fed feels inflationary forces. And if they have a bad quarter and the stock drops at the same time as they need to re-fi a large note, it could create the perfect storm.

    They brag about cash flow all the time but they are not a cash rich company by any means.
    Aug 23 12:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: As An Investment, A Spent Force [View article]
    I remain as confident as ever of my growing short position. I added another 100 shares short at $60.75 today. I do not mind paper losses.

    If anyone read Michael Lewis' "The Big Short" one of the themes was that the people who knew it was going to collapse had a very tough time convincing others. They also knew they just had to wait and keep buying credit default swaps.

    And like the financial crash, everyone, and I mean everyone was buying these CDOs thinking they were safe bets.

    So we have Lehman 2.0 brewing here. All the analysts have a BUY. Goldman has a CONVICTION BUY at $60+ for a stock that shows no current or future GAAP profit. All the while the train of inevitable interest rate increases comes chugging down the track.

    Yes my friends, I feel very good about this short. I've got time.
    Aug 22 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 12 Stocks That Have Performed Better Than Google (8/21/14) [View article]
    I love how CRM has 'incredible, amazing' quarters every quarter but sometimes it sells off and sometimes it goes up. Anyone listening to Cramer to "BUY" at $60 gets what they deserve.
    Aug 22 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: As An Investment, A Spent Force [View article]
    I'm starting to think it's less about moving Reductions in Revenue below the line and maybe more about them using Deferred Revenue as their piggy bank. If they are short, they just accelerate a few million from next quarter into current quarter.

    No company bringing in this much steady and growing revenue for this long should have massive GAAP losses like this. Especially since they aren't building brick and mortar and equipment to build their business.

    I'm adding to my short if it hits $60
    Aug 22 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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