Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
@Sunil & @Hank - Holy cow you guys are right, I just re-read their annual report. From 2011-2012 their deferred revenue jumped 95% due to changing the billing cycle. In their 2013 March report their deferred revenue grew YOY by 7.8%.
We already are in an apples to apples situation but the mutual funds aren't panicked by this. If 7.8% is the growth they desire then I guess they'll hold. Any logical thought pattern will tell you that deferred revenue shows directionally the future YOY growth of the company.
Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
all the traders need cash to buy NFLX, N, CRM, LNKD & WDAY. They are surfing the Fed wave in an effort to catch the ETFs
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Sunil - you believed it was last quarter where the deferred revenue game was up but it's actually this quarter. If it's <30% YOY they'll hide it somehow but the 10Q will have it in there. I think they'll devise some other scheme to keep it >30% somehow but we shall see. This should be the catalyst but I'll believe it when I see it. #Cheat2Beat
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
dude stop. as soon as I see your name I could write the article for you. it's all anti-AAPL and pro INTC and MSFT. do you also listen to a 90's radio station also? you seem stuck there.
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
This quarterly will be very interesting as I've been following their Deferred Revenue Growth for about 3 years and this one should show some slowing; potentially significant slowing. If it shows deferred revenue growth of anything above 30% I will be completely convinced of accounting fraud.
Here's why: A few years ago when P.T. Benioff went on Cramer, the stock had dipped to $94 (about $23.50) on slowing deferred revenue and the Pied Piper was scrambling. He said repeatedly "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!).
What he had done was switch billing cycles to 2 year vs. 1 year. This made deferred revenue rocket back up. Ex: Contract is $100k per year. Book $25K per quarter and deferred revenue is $75k. Then you pick up another exact same contract for $100K/yr, but with a 2 year booking cycle you book $25k in Q1 and lo and behold, Deferred Revenue is now $175k! What a leap! Wow they are growing like crazy!!
In other words, the monkey threw complete crap on the crowd and they and KissAss Cramer ate it up. This discovery by the way made Cramer lose all of his credibility in my book. I stopped listening to him.
But that trick is over with this announcement. All Deferred Revenue Growth is back to an apples to apples YOY number this quarter. If they are honest, we should see this number well below 30%, which shows that the rocket is losing steam and will eventually have more pedestrian revenue growth rates (which I also believe is fraudelent but that's another article.)
Sadly, I predict that continued financial manipulation occurs and they 'cloud' their true growth once again. The fine print in the 10Q will reveal their newest trick.
Short CRM and also sell PUTs as a hedge which covers my anxiety quite nicely.
Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
Very well done - thanks. Part of me doesn't want anyone to read these logical articles because I keep buying 10 shares of AAPL every time I get another $4500 in the account. Trying to really ramp up a long term investment here.
One serious note however, Samsung is a real competitor and I've seen a few objective polls saying that people who pay top dollar for smartphones prefer the larger screen. If AAPL keeps their head in the sand about how there's is the perfect size, these numbers will continue to skew and they could realistically blow it. I trust that clear minds understand this in Cupertino and that they just aren't letting the media know about their plans.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
OK I'm Scottrade so I'll do that. This is a way better method.
Question: if I buy the deep ITM calls and sell the deep ITM calls at a lower strike, how do you capture any windfall if the thesis plays out? It appears as though it's a very safe trade where you may make a slight premium credit to your account? I'm trying this with N.
How are you making money on the RAX drop with this? Or is this a bear put spread where the PUT you are long is far exceeding the put on the other end?
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
that is great advice - thanks
my IRA doesn't allow for those unfortunately. I can sell & buy calls and buy naked puts. Annoying. I'll try a bear call spread in my other account though. I have been taken to the woodshed a few times as evil theta erodes the premium much faster than the market realizes a stock is overbought.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
Nice return since September. Congrats. I was short RAX for a bit but closed at a small profit. Should've held it longer. Did the same with CMG. Now I'm holding firm with WDAY and CRM this year as they are over cooked big time.
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
nice theory with supporting arguments. of course it's all hindsight with your alternate universe.
i agree that foreign cash is becoming a monster but if i were running aapl and decided to pay 35% repatriating tax vs. borrowing for <1% to buy back shares, I'd have fired myself and walked myself out the door.
when interest rates start rising and if any new congress decides to lower that draconian rate, things will change. but I bet their foriegn cash will hit $150b before those happen.
LinkedIn Like Microsoft And Baidu - Watch Out Below [View article]
the mutual funds control the price of all over-priced stocks. some go all the way down (GMCR), some go way down and rebound (NFLX) and some never go down (AMZN, CRM). None of us have any idea what LNKD will do because none of us control the shares. If you short, set a stop loss you can live with. If you buy PUTS, make sure they are way far out.
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
Y'arggghhh hang in there Cap'n. Batten down the hatches for the storm and you'll see the AGNC sun shining again. It's only a loss if you sell it.
and I fear Gold will end up in Davey Jones locker someday. It has no intrinsic value, it's only worth what someone will pay for it. It doesn't generate dividends or cash flow. That be your Kraken says I.
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
Gary Kain's platinum coating is wearing off - so much for the title 'best mind in mREITs"
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
We already are in an apples to apples situation but the mutual funds aren't panicked by this. If 7.8% is the growth they desire then I guess they'll hold. Any logical thought pattern will tell you that deferred revenue shows directionally the future YOY growth of the company.
Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
Apple: The iPad Faces Unprecedented Competition [View article]
Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
Here's why: A few years ago when P.T. Benioff went on Cramer, the stock had dipped to $94 (about $23.50) on slowing deferred revenue and the Pied Piper was scrambling. He said repeatedly "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" "LOOK AT GUIDANCE" (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!).
What he had done was switch billing cycles to 2 year vs. 1 year. This made deferred revenue rocket back up. Ex: Contract is $100k per year. Book $25K per quarter and deferred revenue is $75k. Then you pick up another exact same contract for $100K/yr, but with a 2 year booking cycle you book $25k in Q1 and lo and behold, Deferred Revenue is now $175k! What a leap! Wow they are growing like crazy!!
In other words, the monkey threw complete crap on the crowd and they and KissAss Cramer ate it up. This discovery by the way made Cramer lose all of his credibility in my book. I stopped listening to him.
But that trick is over with this announcement. All Deferred Revenue Growth is back to an apples to apples YOY number this quarter. If they are honest, we should see this number well below 30%, which shows that the rocket is losing steam and will eventually have more pedestrian revenue growth rates (which I also believe is fraudelent but that's another article.)
Sadly, I predict that continued financial manipulation occurs and they 'cloud' their true growth once again. The fine print in the 10Q will reveal their newest trick.
Short CRM and also sell PUTs as a hedge which covers my anxiety quite nicely.
Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win [View article]
One serious note however, Samsung is a real competitor and I've seen a few objective polls saying that people who pay top dollar for smartphones prefer the larger screen. If AAPL keeps their head in the sand about how there's is the perfect size, these numbers will continue to skew and they could realistically blow it. I trust that clear minds understand this in Cupertino and that they just aren't letting the media know about their plans.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
Question: if I buy the deep ITM calls and sell the deep ITM calls at a lower strike, how do you capture any windfall if the thesis plays out? It appears as though it's a very safe trade where you may make a slight premium credit to your account? I'm trying this with N.
How are you making money on the RAX drop with this? Or is this a bear put spread where the PUT you are long is far exceeding the put on the other end?
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
my IRA doesn't allow for those unfortunately. I can sell & buy calls and buy naked puts. Annoying. I'll try a bear call spread in my other account though. I have been taken to the woodshed a few times as evil theta erodes the premium much faster than the market realizes a stock is overbought.
Why I Went Short This High-Flying 'Cloud' Stock Today [View article]
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
i agree that foreign cash is becoming a monster but if i were running aapl and decided to pay 35% repatriating tax vs. borrowing for <1% to buy back shares, I'd have fired myself and walked myself out the door.
when interest rates start rising and if any new congress decides to lower that draconian rate, things will change. but I bet their foriegn cash will hit $150b before those happen.
LinkedIn Like Microsoft And Baidu - Watch Out Below [View article]
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]
and I fear Gold will end up in Davey Jones locker someday. It has no intrinsic value, it's only worth what someone will pay for it. It doesn't generate dividends or cash flow. That be your Kraken says I.
The Risky Truth About Apple's Dividend [View article]
More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) [View news story]