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Doyle3000

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  • Gilead submits NDA for HIV-1 combo med [View news story]
    I think it is extremely pivotal for GILD to explain very clearly in language suitable for a kindergartener what exactly the discount rate is, what it means in terms of margins, and what they expect from it going forward.

    I firmly believe the analyst community heard "46% discount" and assumed that Sovaldi and Harvoni prices had just been cut 46%. That is not what they meant, but it's what was heard.

    GILD management cannot assume their language and way of looking at things internally is understood the same way outside their HQ. They really shot themselves in the foot saying that phrase without clarification last quarter.
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck HCV combo med tagged a Breakthrough Therapy for HCV-4 and HCV-1 dialysis patients [View news story]
    Selling your drugs in Africa is noble but not profitable - this can't be the demographic to which they were hoping to sell expensive solutions.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Price Dip Offers A Strong Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Great article - bought more this morning.

    I think this is so similar to AAPL a few years ago that it'll take the company to hit Wall Street with a 2 x 4 for them to see the value.

    If I were running the Q1 earnings call, I'd announce a stock split and increased buybacks. Of course that is just engineering but when AAPL announced the 7 for 1 and the buybacks it all of a sudden got attention to the stock.

    People selling GILD today have absolutely no vision. I have read dozens of articles from authors admitting shamefully that they sold AAPL at $550 ($78.57 split adjusted). And I want to ask those people "Was that capitulation or did you not have any idea that it was a ridiculously strong buy at that price?"

    Shaking my head on GILD but accumulating as I go. The 2017 $100 LEAPS are stupid cheap today if you want to dip your toes in.
    Apr 6, 2015. 04:14 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Days To Think About Bad News [View article]
    MU hit for a nice 1.5% in four days - thanks for that one!
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    I think any news at all by OPEC or non-OPEC about slowing production or dwindling reserves would rocket the entire sector by 5%. I'd even say that buying a LEAP could be less risky and provide better ROI for these drillers.

    Long NE, MRO and selling calls while I wait for the rebound
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 salesforce.com Mysteries [View article]
    CustomerSat you make a very fair statement that investment five years ago in this company would've paid off nicely on the promise of future earnings.

    And even new investment today may actually pay off if interest rates stay low and Wall St. continues to pay for top line growth and future promises of profit.

    But every year that passes tells me that no one can answer the "HOW?"

    By the time MSFT, ORCL, SAP were this size they were already making a lot of GAAP profit. The only logical difference is that CRM's model doesn't work to drive GAAP profit, it only works to keep the stock price up. There is really no other conclusion.

    If CRM was trading exactly as it is today with same revenue, growth and profit and we had that Lehmann Brothers moment of 2007/2008 - do you not see how fast this stock would go down to almost nothing? There's no profit, no dividend and major dilution. It's life-blood is the altered state that the Fed has created with QE.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    The announcement that the HCV solutions are approved in Japan could come before the Q1 announcement which would be nice.

    I don't mind accumulating down here. I sell $99 PUTs each Monday which also helps while I wait. Between selling $105 calls and $99 PUTs you can earn some nice income before the next catalyst
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation - Unloved And Undervalued [View article]
    Great article -

    So you prefer they keep the 11% dividend or as an owner would you like to see them slash the dividend down to 5.5% (still pretty good) and use the remaining $175mm/yr to buy back 12.5mm shares per year over next two years?

    Cleary the 11% dividend is not believed by the street to be sustainable. Even if NE can afford it, the stock is trading like it's going to be severely cut.

    Maybe if they announce that indeed it will remain in place for all of 2015 we'd get a pretty nice jump in stock price.

    I'm long at $14.12 and liking my long term prospects.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market's Optimism About Salesforce.com Justified? [View article]
    I wonder what will happen to CRM once they actually hit $10b?

    That's Benioff's vision and he appears to be on course for it. But will the rise of interest rates combined with a slowing bull market crater this stock before he achieves it?

    If the stock does have a major re-calibration of it's ability to earn profits or keep growing top-line at such rates, they'll lose their currency to pay their sales and marketing people (with stock) and in turn will the talent start leaving, preventing them from even hitting $10b? CRM certainly couldn't afford to pay themselves with cash at the same level.

    It's going to be very interesting to watch. It is inevitable that the valuation will be recalibrated as people start seeing that the model is incapable of making money.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: An Analysis Using Warren Buffett's Owner-Earnings Equation [View article]
    that I'm looking forward to because I do not get the IBM purchase at all
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    to hold a stock for 7 months and sell because it didn't take off isn't investing. you'll kick yourself by this time next year if you sell now.
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:33 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    same as AAPL 2013 - patience will be rewarded
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:31 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: An Analysis Using Warren Buffett's Owner-Earnings Equation [View article]
    For clarity, I meant "children of the depression" meant that their parents lived through it so they watched the uber-frugal actions of their parents. We learn at the school of experience, we learn at no other.

    My late father was born in 1927; I know what living below your means looks like, and I'm quite thankful I've learned it.

    Now my kids on the other hand....
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: An Analysis Using Warren Buffett's Owner-Earnings Equation [View article]
    Very cool article. I'm surprised you get many 71+ year olds to buy individual stocks at all. I have found that once they get to a standard of living that they are ok with, they get uber-conservative with their money. After all, many of them are children of the great depression.

    Even if GILD dropped to $76 I couldn't get any of the people I know in their 70's to buy it.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Core Molding Technologies' Accelerating Earnings Propel Bullish Thesis [View article]
    Good article II - my worry is that this stuck has been cheap for a few years now. They need a catalyst like a buyback. And I think everyone is leery that the bull may be getting tired and automotives never seem to be a "bet on the come" sector.
    Mar 14, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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