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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    there are several different lengths of contracts that they sell. when deferred slowed one year and the stock took a hit, they started selling two year contracts. made deferred really jump.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    I'd sell on this lift for sure. it'll settle back down to the high 50's before next quarterly call. And interest rates will eventually go up although I've been saying that for over a year now.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce soars to $68 on in-line results, better-than-feared guidance [View news story]
    Did any sell side analyst calculate GAAP loss per share multiplied by the number of outstanding shares?

    The number (GAAP Loss) is staggering. I'm roughly calculating about a $275,000,000.00 GAAP loss for their fiscal year. That's 275 MILLION DOLLARS in GAAP Losses on $5bn in revenues.

    They are selling $1 bills for $1.05 and then paying themselves $0.10 per sale in stock-based compensation (but not counting that expense)
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:52 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Competition In Cloud May Temper Salesforce's Revenue Growth In Q4 [View article]
    I'll take $55 all day tomorrow
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com All Set To Post Robust Numbers [View article]
    Correction: The company is expected to report revenues of $1.44 billion and *fairy tale* earnings of $0.14 per share during the final quarter of its FY 2015

    I think it'll get a jump then settle back down around $57 as well. That's where I was planning to close my most recent short. This has been a good stock to trade.

    Good luck!
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    good thought DoTheM - I'm sure they'll accrue conservatively with their rebates too.

    for a company known for sandbagging, those guided margins seem extremely high. And trust me I'm happy to read it.

    and again I'm wondering if they mean "46% of our business will have deviated pricing vs. 22% in 2014" vs. what many analysts believe they said which is "GILD is cutting pricing by 46% on Solvaldi/Harvoni".
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: All Is Still Well Down On The Farm [View article]
    there is still something odd about their margin guidance being so high that doesn't jive with this 46% price deviation.

    for round numbers, let's say the MSRP was $80,000 per regimen. Now if they had a 22% price deviation out of the gate for launch, let's say that was $65,500 or 22% off list.

    And now they are saying that their ASP (average sell price) is $54,800 (46% off list) yet the margins guide upper 80's to lower 90's? If a sell price of $54,800 garners an 85% margin *(conservative by their guidance)*, we are looking at about $8000.00 cost of sales.

    So the margin at MSRP ($80,000) is 90% and yet the guidance range covers that margin.

    This makes me believe that this discount to net has been miscommunicated in that it's not a price cut, it's just that more product is going out the door at deviated pricing. I don't think their average selling price is $54,800 although I'm sure some customers are paying that. Or maybe less.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Gilead's 2015 Outlook [View article]
    They are still giving guidance for extremely high margins, everyone keeps missing this point. This gross to net is a price mix thing, it does not mean that all of their product is going out the door at 46% off list. But the analysts heard that I think. Unfortunately.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hep C Franchise Will Remain Key Midterm Driver For Gilead [View article]
    Does anyone know exactly what that 46% deviation means? To me, it means that last year they sold 22% at deviated pricing from list price, and this year they'll sell 46% at deviated pricing from list price.

    I think some analysts heard that their average price was going from 22% off list down to 46% off list. And GILD management made assumptions about what exactly that meant when they talked about the deviations and how the analysts interpreted what they were sayingt. And it helped the stock tank unnecessarily.

    Very long GILD. Sleeping just fine.
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: No Reason To Panic Here [View article]
    you may have sold AAPL at its APEX which is good, but you put the proceeds into DEAD MONEY. So now just get used to that dividend. If you're rich, it may not have been a bad trade.
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    I'm not a fan of that strategy. I'd rather just sell if I think it's had a nice run. And I sell usually via tight calls. I think my success ratio in buying naked puts is about 15%.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    So explain AAPL going to $385 then up to current $840? You give Wall St WAAAAAAY too much credit. They know no more than we do. They just dress better.
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiocy Of Gilead's Undervaluation [View article]
    Can you believe how cheap the $100 January 2017's are? I just bought some for $18.65!!
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Reports: Let's Analyze It [View article]
    Does the conservative investor ever take ownership of stocks other than after a cataclysmic event like 9/11 or Lehmann Bros?
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks Investors [View article]
    Title should've read

    "Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks weak hands, traders and people who don't understand financials. Investors LOVE the outlook"
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:07 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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