Seeking Alpha

Doyle3000

Doyle3000
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Doyle3000's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Salesforce.com Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    the facts are that CRM is claiming that their systems are not able to breakout revenue streams, which seems preposterous. And yes the conclusion is that they are trying very hard to not comply but are doing it within the confines of securities law.
    Mar 10 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Investors Face Significant Write-Down Risk [View article]
    So frustrating that governing bodies and regulators repeatedly fail to ask themselves "does this new policy create opportunity for a less-than-ethical management team to easily work around?"

    If the answer is "oh yeah, I could see greedy people really abusing this one", then they should reconsider even changing or adding anything.
    Mar 10 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    jiri75 - you bring up a good point. But what we also plainly see in monthly billing and revenue is that there would be seasonality and non-amazing quarters if they billed monthly. There'd be no deferred revenue available to 'recognize' in the non-amazing quarter to accelerate and make it look amazing.

    Deferred revenue is the piggy bank to ensure 30% YOY growth each and every quarter with a 'beat and raise' promise each time. Monthly billing would make them have to increase their dependence on gray area accounting in their Sales and Marketing line. #Cheat2Beat #Enron
    Mar 10 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust: The Last Reason To Own It Is Gone [View article]
    I've lost 2 sets of $5 PUTS because the premiums were too high and the market stayed irrational. If my March PUTS expire worthless I'm just giving up. But I will add it to the list of bizarre things I've seen in the market.

    anyone who says they've seen everything is lying. the oddest damn things continue to happen in the market, no matter the technology. humans are the chaos.
    Mar 8 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    Golfer - if you've been following high flying ridiculously over-valued stocks through the 90's you'd have the same slanted opinion of sell side analysts who cover these types of stocks. But regardless, SFDC has been manipulating how they invoice and how they recognize deferred revenue, I believe, for about 2 years now. They used to bill 1 year, then changed it to 2 years which showed a huge 'explosion' of deferred revenue. Then when that year lapped around and it looked like deferred revenue was going to slow down, they started mixing up the billing. Some were 2.5 years, some were 2, some were even 3 I think.

    The point of all of this is that SFDC actively and knowingly creates the illusion that they are unstoppable and that you can bank on 30+% top line growth with a beat and raise every single quarter. And because they play in the gray area of revenue recognition, they can follow through on this promise.

    think of deferred revenue as an emergency piggy bank for the end of the quarter. if they are coming up short of amazing, they just use the naughty hammer and pull a little yet unrecognized revenue from the future into the current quarter. and how would anyone ever know?

    I also have a theory that they are booking 'reductions in revenue' (rebates, promotional spending, BOGO, etc..) into the Sales and Marketing entry, which is below the line and should be above the line. The guys who wrote Freakonomics would probably agree once they plotted the data. It's SO fishy.

    They are cheating, they are lying, they are getting filthy rich off of people who listen to Cramer and Jeffries and all the other Benioff puppets.

    You will see this crash and crash hard in the coming years and you'll see why I am so cynical. I"ve seen this movie. I know the ending.

    Hit em straight Golfer. Hit em straight.
    Mar 8 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    golfer - seriously? do you really think the analysts covering CRM want to even ask these questions that the SEC asks? Have you ever heard one of the conference calls? it's a frickin joke. Remember that brokerage firms are 'sell side' analysts. They put lipstick on pigs.
    Mar 7 10:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    JG - insiders have been ritualistically selling their shares via stock option transactions for several years. They aren't related.
    Mar 6 05:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Dis-Economies Of Scale At Salesforce.com [View article]
    I'm liking the increasing steepening of the stock price curve. It looks like phase I of the tulip craze. And ownership of both got you a share of no profit.

    The replies that continue to defend CRM's business model clearly did not follow the market of 1999. History is repeating itself. Most of these crazy growth stocks can never ever live up to the future profitability that they are priced for.

    On CNBC analyst said "they better never show a GAAP profit or they'll be exposed for what they are"; meaning the P/E will be so high everyone will gasp.

    They are now their own worst enemy as the cliff gets closer and closer.
    Mar 4 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use The Apple Cash Machine For High Yield Income [View article]
    I have been selling calls and puts myself which alleviates some of the frustration of being long the stock. It's in its own ecosystem and quite frankly I'd like some of my long term $660 strikes to get called so I can get out of my too-big position.

    The mini options are fantastic too.

    It's a total traders' stock.
    Mar 1 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Steep Net Income Decline Despite Tax Benefit Underlies Salesforce's Lopsided Growth Strategy [View article]
    SG&A increasing faster than revenue for 3 years running now - My kingdom for a look at what it going in that 'below the line' entry. I am very familiar with managing the selling expense of a large sales-driven company and that "selling expense as a percentage of revenue" astounds me.

    Is it that they are hiring significantly more salespeople sequentially each year? Probably. Are the DreamForce seminars progressively more expensive? Maybe
    Are they advertising more each year? Maybe

    But we all know that headcount is the major expense. If you are paying your growing sales force a salary but then adding in stock based compensation (not an expense) as their variable compensation, then the sales force must be growing by 30%+ each year to justify this. is it? They certainly are not giving 30% raises to the sales team's base salary each year.

    So if they are adding 30% headcount each year, would there not be some efficiencies with fleet cars, insurance, phone deals, travel, etc?

    I'm certianly not seeing Super Bowl ads or USA Today full pagers.

    And has anyone noticed that they 'beat and raise' like clockwork?

    That SG&A line is.....it's....what's the word? .....It's .........Amazing!
    Feb 28 04:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Buy Side Expects From Salesforce.com On Thursday [View article]
    I believe the term is 'Fairy tale Earnings" coined by Paulo Santos. With their ability to move 'deferred revenue' into any quarter they like, they are guaranteed to 'beat' on fairy tale and top line each quarter. Benioff is a genius.
    Feb 26 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Pre-Earnings: Focus On Salesforce1 Platform And Operating Margins [View article]
    I don't think they'll make money in 2017. With Benioff's stated goal to be a $10b company he'll sacrifice all else to grow $1b per year for the next 5-6 years. And I don't even know if this model can make money given what he pays his sales & marketing budget to move their product.

    With interest rates inevitably rising and the liquidity shrinking I can't see their stock staying crazy high either. I wonder if this company will ever make GAAP profit?
    Feb 26 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulily blasts off on Q4 beat, guidance. Groupon also jumps. [View news story]
    Cramer was talking this ZU up big time this morning. Saying he finally found someone who can take a run at Amazon.

    But the facts are that they do not have an intuitive, easy to access website, nor do they have free shipping, nor do they have a robust easy return policy. I think the news of Amazon's demise is a little premature.

    But in this market, why not have it go to $60 today?
    Feb 25 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Answering 10 Questions About J.C. Penney [View article]
    I'll have what Chuck Norrisssss isssss having
    Feb 25 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words: Implications From Sovaldi Treatment Trends [View article]
    Wow that was thorough! Nice work. I sold $80 GILD Puts this week. I've been wanting 'in' since it was at $62 and am kicking myself!
    Feb 24 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,145 Comments
1,985 Likes