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  • Might Be Riskier Than It Seems [View article]
    i do think AMZN has a moat whereas I think CRM has snake oil only and will be cratering first. AMZN is like a cockroach. Survives anything.
    Oct 14, 2013. 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Might Be Riskier Than It Seems [View article]
    do you have that link? I have been beating this drum for 5 quarters now. I know in my heart they are booking reductions in revenue into the wildly fluctuating and growing 'sales and marketing' line.

    but like we all saw with Madoff, the SEC can't and won't do anything about it. the forces of the market uncover the fraud. the SEC will get involved after everything has been exposed but it'll be irrelevant by then. I hope their accounting firm goes bankrupt too like Arthur Anderson did after Enron's fall.
    Oct 14, 2013. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Might Be Riskier Than It Seems [View article]
    Great article. Very real life scenario if there were a catastophic event (9/11, assassination, earthquake, etc.)

    The fact that all the goodwill counts as their asset magnifies this risk. @Jay Schembs is right!

    But don't hold your breath for them to do the Goodwill Write-Down anytime soon. Their accountants and sell side analysts probably all meet for happy hour every Friday, on P.T. Benioff's Amex.

    Can't wait to see this story on American Greed
    Oct 10, 2013. 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Analyst Is For A Turning [View article]
    And today's lesson is the same as yesterday's lesson: Sell Side Analysts are the tabloid writers of the financial world.

    Not that I wouldn't love him to be right, but seriously? Does someone who jumps from $450 to $425 then to $600 have any credibility with a true investor?
    Oct 7, 2013. 05:12 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling [View article]
    They've been selling as fast as they can. They know the gravy train is stock options until the price craters. This has been the case for the last 3 years now. Since it's not an expense in their joke non-GAAP reporting, they are pulling cash out of this company as fast as they can.

    Any stockholder who considers himself a partial owner of this company is funding the riches of the people above but is not going to participate in any profits. Ever.
    Oct 7, 2013. 02:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Revenue Growth Rate Is Not The Only Growth Concern [View article]
    Paulo - I think you've been short AMZN longer than I've been short CRM. I think we'll both win eventually but both stocks have been amazing to watch.

    The easy money Fed has kept them both going as well as their atypical CEOs. And sadly, the vast majority of ignorant talking heads and writers who really have no idea what is going on other than the top line is growing.

    I'd say AMZN does have a moat so I think they'll stay lofty until it becomes clear to almost everyone that their margins and growth won't ever let them be as profitable as Wal-Mart, Target, etc...

    CRM on the other hand is a piggy bank for the insiders. They have no moat and actively work to deceive. I also think Benioff is orchestrating deliberate and consistent top line by booking things that should be price into the sales and marketing line. But that's just my theory and we know the SEC is inept at calling scoundrels out until after the crashes.

    In the meantime, I'm selling PUTS to offset my costs and will wait. I believe the taper, combined with continued GAAP losses and money wanting to potentially move to 'new' hot growth stocks will have both of these stocks lose 50% or more over the next 24 months.

    I'll bet you a beer that it's CRM but will be happy for you if you're right. Lord knows you've done the homework.
    Oct 6, 2013. 07:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fret Over Outliving Your Money [View article]
    Lifestyle is key. Gates & Buffett would not sacrifice by using 122. I'm pretty sure you and I would. I'm not planning to be like Jerry Seinfelds parents and eat at 4:30!
    Oct 6, 2013. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Turned My Back On Jim Cramer [View article]
    I worry that his unbridled support and hyping of (CRM) will be the beginning of the end of his credibility. This is 2.0 and I think Benioff may be on another CNBC show called American Greed.

    I think Benioff is a snake oil salesman and that CRM is going to crash like Enron when the Fed turns off the liquidity. This will not be good for fellow Eagles fan Jim Cramer.
    Oct 6, 2013. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fret Over Outliving Your Money [View article]
    Mike - you have statistically a 0% chance of living that long. As the author says "we only go around once". Why not calculate a death age of 95 (extremely conservative!) and live it up a little more?
    Oct 5, 2013. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Stock Crater? Some Thoughts [View article]
    I also think the inevitable taper and the pressure to find growth at these mutual funds will contribute. The Twitter IPO along with FEYE, RNG and all these other high flyers who can grow 40, 50 & 60% will attract that cash (or margined cash probably)
    Oct 5, 2013. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Gaining 50% This Year, NetSuite Is Ready To Go Higher [View article]
    That's the way it goes for sure which is a travesty. The beauty of the weighing machine is that eventually it works and that Monopoly money goes away.

    I'm going to be on the other side of the trade when it happens.
    Oct 4, 2013. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think NetSuite Is Grossly Overvalued [View article]
    Walt - this is one of the best comments I've ever read on the whole 'cloud' bubble.

    At first I was just getting burned on long term PUTS as the age old adage of 'the market can stay irrational longer blah blah blah...." Now I'm just short and I sell PUTS weekly to offset the margin pain while I wait for the crash.

    I don't think it'll happen until the tapering or some other event. It's going to take the big mutual fund to start getting out for CRM to start really moving down. Just need a catalyst.

    I'm going to go very big with the ones you've listed above once the crack opens. You can also add CSOD, DATA & MKTO to your list but they'll be secondary because their market cap could allow them to be purchased.
    Oct 2, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: When The Music Stops [View article]
    You and Paulo are making a strong case and the catalyst may only be a few months away with the real tapering. In all my years I've never seen a near-profitless company continue to have so much support. It absolutely means that top line growth is always the answer for growth stock mutual funds. And when you add in the free money environment, it floats like a balloon.

    I've been gearing up to go short on this for 3 years now and have patted myself on the back every day that I haven't jumped in yet. I won't short through Christmas because I believe more and more people (myself included) are doing more and more of their holiday shopping at AMZN so the top line growth will still be there.

    This one is an outlier. Beware. I think you may have more luck shorting the 'cloud' space over the next year because those guys are going to run out of cash, especially CRM. And the cloud stocks will fall much much further because they have no real way of earning money with their model. At least Amazon has a moat.
    Sep 30, 2013. 09:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Never mind - saw your response above.
    Sep 29, 2013. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Justin - don't buy naked puts. I've got sheets and sheets of my option trades over the last 3 years and by far the worst investment (bet) was the naked put. Theta (time decay) will kill you quickly.

    The yacht that I just saw had the name "I sold Puts to Doyle3000"
    Sep 29, 2013. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment