if you short all of them and hold on for the whole year you'll win on more than you lose. But the January effect has started this project off poorly that's for sure. Maybe the article should be called "Stocks to short Feb 1" :)
What Happened To Invesco Mortgage Capital [View article]
great summary: it truly doesn't matter about prepayment risk, etc.. it really matters where the interest rates are going and how the mREIT hedges its bets on that prognostication. I hold both IVR and AGNC and I know the minute I sell IVR and buy more AGNC that IVR will rise. Diversity and patience is the key with mREITS.
Lululemon: Rising Sun Or Downward Dog? [View article]
This is one fad that I just don't understand. America is full of obese people; how on earth are the yoga folks a) able to afford this ridiculously expensive stuff, and b) skinny enough to fit into them?
I initiated a short position at $58 and am scratching my head. I see this one hitting $40 by this time next year once everyone catches on to your sentence "How many pairs of yoga pants does one need?"
Chipotle's Correction Overdue - Hold Your Positions [View article]
agree as is SBUX and MCD. Great companies that you want to own but it's good to understand that you can jump in and out of these as Mr. Market creates inefficiencies. ORCL and CLF just went through this same ride and have bounced back nicely. AZN does it every time bad news comes out of Europe. You can make nice side money jumping in and out of these whippy stocks with options and positions.
Chipotle's Correction Overdue - Hold Your Positions [View article]
Agree Mark, it won't take that long for YUM! to have that $4.99 burrito bowl that won't taste half bad and will be available in 1000 more locations. CMG is a well run company and I like their value, but this stock should trade at 25x earnings MAX. This is a run-up to the earnings announcement and I too expect a 8%-10% drop even after they beat.
Don't look now but MCD is getting ahead of itself as well.
Will 2012 Be The Year Salesforce.com Finally Quits Defying Gravity? [View article]
Adam Holt from Morgan Stanley just posted a useless and over-hyped piece that made the stock jump today. Total tabloid writing with no details but just good feel from his conversation with the CFO.
I wonder how many shares of CRM are owned by MS? What a joke that this conflict of interest at investment banks still exists after 2 recent market crashes.
Salesforce: Fairly Valued But Watch Revenue [View article]
Simon, You state a good arguement using facts and figures, but you sound like an analyst backing JDSU, CSCO and any ".com" company back in 2000 where endless growth was the formula.
This company is innovative and growing but the stock price is a house of cards. CRM capitalizes expenses that most companies expense (commissions on sales for example). And they started reporting earnings on a non-GAAP basis as soon as the GAAP earnings got ugly.
No insiders buy this stock. Ever.
It is risky to short any stock, but with this one I can tell you with high certainty that 2012 will be very Mayan for longs.
Will 2012 Be The Year Salesforce.com Finally Quits Defying Gravity? [View article]
Bret, Thanks for the validation. I'm holding in there. You are guessing the summer but I think between this earnings announcement and Q1 it should be down to $80 or lower. The May 80 Puts were quite affordable a few months ago and I loaded up.
Marc Benioff - you're already a bizillionaire, let me have a little slice to pay for my kids' college! A P/E of 80 is more than fair.
i've been dollar cost averaging on CIM for over a year and I'm agreeing with the author that they always talk about the future and never focus on their trend of poor earnings and surprise bad news relating to their Book Value.
If you have money to invest in mREITs. I believe AGNC is the best and is the new champion; ousting NLY.
Buying These 6 High-Yield Stocks On Dips Will Pay Off In 2012 [View article]
I'd like to believe in CIM and IVR but I've lost confidence. There seems to be a negative surprise and subsequent drop in book value each quarter. AGNC is clearly superior to these companies.
Chipotle: Love The Food, Short The Stock [View article]
CMG doesn't have a Netflix P/E so I'm not expecting that type of drop though it would be most welcome. I'm thinking it regresses to around $310 (also very acceptable!)
I agree with Hank. Each quarter that CRM inevitably fails to live up to the impossible P/E will create institutional pull-out. I believe, SenorMercado, that it can go to $60 this year and still be somewhat over-valued but much a much more attractive acquisition for a big player.
10 Stocks To Short In 2012 [View article]
10 Stocks To Short In 2012 [View article]
What Happened To Invesco Mortgage Capital [View article]
Lululemon: Rising Sun Or Downward Dog? [View article]
I initiated a short position at $58 and am scratching my head. I see this one hitting $40 by this time next year once everyone catches on to your sentence "How many pairs of yoga pants does one need?"
Chipotle's Correction Overdue - Hold Your Positions [View article]
Chipotle's Correction Overdue - Hold Your Positions [View article]
Don't look now but MCD is getting ahead of itself as well.
Will 2012 Be The Year Salesforce.com Finally Quits Defying Gravity? [View article]
I wonder how many shares of CRM are owned by MS? What a joke that this conflict of interest at investment banks still exists after 2 recent market crashes.
Salesforce: Fairly Valued But Watch Revenue [View article]
You state a good arguement using facts and figures, but you sound like an analyst backing JDSU, CSCO and any ".com" company back in 2000 where endless growth was the formula.
This company is innovative and growing but the stock price is a house of cards. CRM capitalizes expenses that most companies expense (commissions on sales for example). And they started reporting earnings on a non-GAAP basis as soon as the GAAP earnings got ugly.
No insiders buy this stock. Ever.
It is risky to short any stock, but with this one I can tell you with high certainty that 2012 will be very Mayan for longs.
Will 2012 Be The Year Salesforce.com Finally Quits Defying Gravity? [View article]
Thanks for the validation. I'm holding in there. You are guessing the summer but I think between this earnings announcement and Q1 it should be down to $80 or lower. The May 80 Puts were quite affordable a few months ago and I loaded up.
Marc Benioff - you're already a bizillionaire, let me have a little slice to pay for my kids' college! A P/E of 80 is more than fair.
Gloomy Results For Annaly, Chimera [View article]
If you have money to invest in mREITs. I believe AGNC is the best and is the new champion; ousting NLY.
Buying These 6 High-Yield Stocks On Dips Will Pay Off In 2012 [View article]
Long IVR, CIM & AGNC
Lululemon Is A Sell And The Insiders Know It [View article]
Lululemon Is A Sell And The Insiders Know It [View article]
Chipotle: Love The Food, Short The Stock [View article]
10 Stocks To Short In 2012 [View article]