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Doyle3000

Doyle3000
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  • Keeping Beta At Bay [View article]
    George,
    I'm rolling on the JCP's you suggested last week as the $9.50's expired Friday.

    Even though earnings are behind us, I was pleasantly surprised to see the $9 Strike 12/29 still garnering about $0.65 per contract. Having bought shares at $9.18, this is shaping up to be a nice 2 month trade. Perhaps as much as a 6% ROI for 5 weeks. Of course JCP could drop significantly and leave me with a long position that I don't like, but that risk/reward seems pretty good with this ROI.

    Thanks again
    Nov 24, 2013. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce: In Search Of The Bottom Line [View instapost]
    Good stuff BI!
    Nov 23, 2013. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saleforce.com: 3 Simple Questions For Wall Street Analysts [View article]
    you remind me of the guy who wrote "How I made $2 million in the Stock Market" back in the 60's. Totally technical guy. Was addicted to trailing stops. Learned from many many mistakes. You don't happen to be him?

    Fascinating book. And who cares if it's luck right?
    Nov 22, 2013. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    Nicholas - you have been burned by the Brooklyn Investor, get some cold cream.
    Nov 22, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    HStern - Here's my theory: Salesforce needs $13mm in sales at the end of the quarter to keep up their amazingly consistent 30%+ top line revenue growth. So they offer a promotion that affords the customer 30,000 free 'seats' if they purchase 100,000 seats at $100 per seat. (A seat is their term for an SAAS subscription)

    Customer says yes, they pay $10mm for 130,000 seats. All good.

    Except here's what I think CRM is doing with this:

    Top Line Revenue $13,000,000
    Discounts and Promotions $0
    ______________________...
    Sales and Marketing Expense $3,000,000

    From my understanding of Sarbanes-Oxley, this $3mm is a REDUCTION IN REVENUE and should be booked above the line as a discount directly off of their top line revenue. I'm not a CPA but I remember distinctly that all of the dot.com companies were fooling investors in 1999 with this tactic which contributed to the writing of the Sarb-Ox law.

    Illuminati's chart, to me, screams of SarbOx violation.
    Nov 22, 2013. 11:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saleforce.com: 3 Simple Questions For Wall Street Analysts [View article]
    Nicholas - those other purchases were smart and guess what all of those other companies have in common? They actually make real GAAP earnings while they are growing. CRM is the outlier because it doesn't make money and will never grow into this price. So yes, if you want to smugly ride this for a long time, you will lose most or all of your paper gains and probably a lot of your investment. But I applaud the other choices.
    Nov 21, 2013. 11:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saleforce.com: 3 Simple Questions For Wall Street Analysts [View article]
    Good dialogue - nice. I have been burned buying puts as the premiums and time decay are your enemy. Best bet is to short the stock & sell puts against your position on a strike price that you can live with. My $49's expire Friday and it paid 2x my margin interest charge for the month.

    Good luck - stay short - believe in your convictions!
    Nov 21, 2013. 04:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Pop On Earnings, Sell The News [View article]
    if it stays down another week it'll be on Goldman's Convict, er, I mean Conviction Buy list again.

    #Cheat2Beat #Tyco.02 #WorldCom.02

    I really am starting to fantasize about how much money this thing is going to make me once it crashes. It could end up at $10
    Nov 20, 2013. 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    Nice article i i - The graph says 1000 words, beginning with "Tonight on American Greed...."

    Does anyone know how to email David Einhorn with all of this almost smoking gun evidence we've uncovered?

    If you are worried about being underwater on your short position (like me) just sell monthly or even weekly PUTS at a strike price that you're ok with. This will break eventually, it's getting shadier every quarter. I'm long term shorting this puppy and won't close until I've made a lot of money. If it goes back up to $57 I'll add another 100 shares.
    Nov 20, 2013. 06:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Investors Face Significant Write-Down Risk [View article]
    hence my theory, they are booking reductions in revenue (Price) below the line into Sales & Marketing. Creating marketing programs that effectively reduce price (AND legally, top line revenue) but not booking it above the line. this is the genesis of Sarbanes Oxley.

    Both Michael Blair and Illuminati have struck on the chord I've been playing for several quarters now. These beats are manufactured. #Cheat2Beat #WorldCom #Tyco
    Nov 19, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Investors Face Significant Write-Down Risk [View article]
    Honestly guys, I think CRM has another pop tonight after the call and will ride this new marketing platform for the next 4 quarters to fuel its 30% 'growth' ride. It's becoming a bigger investment than I'd care to admit on the short side but I'm thinking 4 years out when my youngest goes off to college this short could pay for his entire education.

    It is 1998 right now, I think we need to hold on for anther year. Maybe the Fed taper will be the beginning of the end. I have no confidence in Ernst & Young nor the SEC to unobscure the uber aggressive accounting shenanigans at CRM.
    Nov 18, 2013. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Pop On Earnings, Sell The News [View article]
    They will talk about all the growth they are expecting in the marketing space today. That's where the real growth is expected in next few years; they know that it's not with salesforce management.

    Like you said the valuation is ridiculous. I will add to my short if it pops today. The $49 Puts I sold last month expire Friday which cover the interest on the short. I'll do this until it breaks.
    Nov 18, 2013. 07:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Was A Friend Of Mine [View article]
    Pls learn correct use of the word whom - that was painful to read
    Nov 16, 2013. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    That should have been its own article
    Nov 16, 2013. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Kimberly-Clark Still Be Attractive After The Healthcare Spin-Off? [View article]
    Pim please at least sell tight calls on the position. KMB is not a growing company. Private label is taking share. They are run by bean counters and manufacturing guys. This is the apex. Take half off the table - you crushed it.
    Nov 15, 2013. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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